ronib
I blame the housing market growstuff. I blame governments.
The obvious divide in prices between the north and south in housing prices is staggering.
What decides house prices is what proportion of a house owners income the lenders belief they can afford to pay out each month as a mortgage payment, given all the other costs of living.
Generally, long term, that has been seen as being about a third of total income. This sum of money is allocated into two parts, the first part is the interest due on the loan and the second is the repayment of capital.
When interest rates are high, which they were for most of us. So much of our monthly payment was attributed to interest rates, that capital repayments were very low, and as mortgages have a fixed end date, usually 25 years, the capital amount this would cover was lower, so the amount we could afford to borrow was lower, and so, therefore, were house prices.
In recent years we have seen the reverse. Very low interest rates, meaning the interest part of the monthly payment is lower, the amount available for capital repayment higher, so larger amounts can be borrowed, so house prices go up as people borrow as much as they can to buy as good a house as they can afford to compete to buy available houses
Which brings us to the other factor. The law of supply and demand. If demand for houses is matched by supply, ie, as many potential buyers as sellers. prices remain stable. If you have rapid population growth and demand for houses to buy increases but supply doesn't, buyers compete to buy available properties and prices rise.
Over recent decades, we have seen three factors put excessive pressure on the housing market in the south east, firstly national population growth, most of which has been concentrated in the south east and secondly the migration of people from the north to the south east for employment, and thirdly higher wages than further north, in order to encourage people to move south and fill vacant jobs.
The two rules I mention above then come into play. How much money lenders will lend depends on interest rates, currently quite low, so loans will be bigger, but where so many more people want to buy than there are houses are available, they all outbid each other to get houses, so house prices get pushed up until the number of those who can afford to buy matches the number selling, and the higher wages go, the higher the price rises.
In the north the reverse applies, people moving south, reduces demand on housing in the north. Supply and demand are more in balance and wages are lower, so maximum loans are smaller, so prices are lower.
Other things can affect prices short term, optimism/pessimism about the future, national financial mismanagement, intenational crises, but over longer time spans the movement of house prices is relentlessly governed by how much lenders will lend and supply and demand.