President Assad

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27yx1y0deo

“Protests erupt in Syria over Christmas tree burning”.

What is good to read is the HTS reaction to support the christian minority

“Footage of the aftermath showed a religious figure from the governing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group assuring crowds who had gathered in Suqaylabiyah that the tree would be repaired before the morning.
The man then held up a cross in a show of solidarity, something Islamist conservatives would not do"

Hope for the best?

You mean a deal for Syria, not with Syria? I mean. alongside the other Western Countries giving aid for Syria?

As far as the HTS/Syrian people is concerned relationships with Turkey and other neighbouring states are paramount.

There's also an article about the country's many minorities and how they feel they might fare in a new Syria - great picture of a young activist Wajiha al-Hajjar.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2yqnewxrpo

The US will bend over backwards to get a deal with Syria because it will stabilize the whole region, terrorists will find it much harder ro operate with a moderate government in Syria.
Hopefully that will enable Lebanon to be stabilized too.

That and a settlement in Ukraine will see a much more hopeful New Year.

A new factor has emerged about the appalling Assad regime - the huge scale production of illegal drugs facilitated by that regime (his brother was very involved. Since it was how a lot of people made their living, the HTS has yet another really big problem to cope with.

Bit of a read, but I hadn't had any idea about it:

What now for Syria’s £4.5bn illegal drug empire

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2dxnn1406do

I agree.

US diplomats are going over to meet HTS

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07gv3j818ko

"US diplomats are in the Syrian capital Damascus where they plan to meet representatives from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group now in charge but which Washington still designates as a terrorist organisation.
The visit follows those of delegations in recent days from the UN and other countries including the UK, France and Germany.
This is the first formal American diplomatic appearance in Damascus in more than a decade."

"They plan to meet representatives from HTS, in a show of readiness to deal with the group the US still designates as a terrorist organisation, but building pressure for it to transition to inclusive, non-sectarian government.

Washington is effectively laying down a set of conditions before it would consider delisting the group - a critical step which could help ease the path towards sanctions relief that Damascus desperately needs."

There are still issues with the Kurds on the Turkish border which I don't quite understand, perhaps someone else does better.

And yes I agree promises were made in Afghanistan but although caution is needed I don't think its comparable with the Taliban.

Allira

^Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc^
A-bit like here really!
Where do you live? 😯

Somewhere like this? One province after Russian airstrike.

Looks like London during WW2. Yet those people carried on regardless. Many brave Syrians have done just that. Look at the crowds celebrating. They've stayed and fought on. My admiration is for them.

Yes MOnica, beware yet open to working constructively. Another tough call for the government and diplomats

A word of caution. The Taliban made all sorts of promises before the American withdrawal about how women would be treated under their (second) period in power.

Look what they have actually done. No education for women, now not even allowed to speak in when out in public to train to be mid-wives.

look how the Chinese have broken every clause in the agreement over the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule.

We must be aware in dealing with the new powers in Syria, not to be deceived into supporting a regime that starts by being open and liberal to attract western support but then changes to be as repressive as Assads, but for different reasons.

Thats more or less how I felt too about it David. So many obstacles to steer through. He's asked for a lift on sanctions.

A very positive sign, good intentions for sure it’s now up to the west and the US in particular to make sure those good intentions are put into practice.
Don’t expect that to be an easy process!.

A BBC interview with HTS leader.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05p9g2nqmeo

I am not suggesting that Assad will end up in Saudi Arabia specifically, but I was only able to find a link listing those dictators who had sought refuge in that country. Other dictators have ended up in other countries around the Persian Gulf, but i could not find.

Here is another interesting article that seems to be old enough to be unaffected by the Washington Post's pay wall. www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/30/where-do-ousted-dictators-go-fewer-countries-now-offer-a-warm-welcome/

It actually suggested that Syria's war lasted longer because Assad knew he faced International War crime trials, if he went and his country of exile needs to be one that ignores such warrants.

It is an interesting thought. Assad - and his family may, in fact, have to stay in Russia whether he or Putin want him or not, simply because no other country willing to take him is safe for him to go to.

Some list!

Long but informative article for those interested enough on relationships with Turkey and HTS plans with other rebel groups and the future of the Kurds.

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/17/ankara-is-getting-what-it-wants-how-erdogans-balancing-act-in-syria-paid-off

*MOnica" Saudi's are generally Sunni, Assad is an Alawite following the Shiite interpretation of Islam. I think it's highly unlikely that he would be welcome in Saudi Arabia regardless of how much money he has. The question is also, where has he put his money and how easily can he access it? It's thought a lot of his money is in Russia which if Putin decides to off load him, is a bit of a problem.

No, he could pay for security and the gulf states have a history of providing unpleasant people, especially Arab or African dictators with a safe haven - no doubt at a price. Here is a list of those finding sanctuary in Saudi Arabia
www.middleeasteye.net/news/sri-lanka-rajapaksa-saudi-arabia-safe-haven-ousted-leaders

Wouldn't he be in danger in any of those states on a hit list?

There are other Gulf and arab states. I am someone somewhere will be all to willing to help - for a price - and Assad and his family have £billions salted away in various tax havens.

I doubt either Saudi Arabia or Qatar will have him, they were helping to arm the "Rebels".

foxie48

I'm wondering if Assad will be used by Putin to bargain with the next regime eg we'll let you have Assad if you let us keep our ports. Just a thought!

To be fair to the Russians, they do not usually betray leaders like this.

However, what has happened in the past is that some leaders have taken temporary refuge in Moscow until moving on to another more comfortable country.

In this case I think Assad and family will move on to one of the 'friendly' Gulf arab states like Saudi Arabia or Qa'atar.

valdavi

hopefully they'll tell Putin, we'll let you have the joy of him mate.

Yes, my preferred option, lose the bases, keep the monster - for now.

hopefully they'll tell Putin, we'll let you have the joy of him mate.

I'm wondering if Assad will be used by Putin to bargain with the next regime eg we'll let you have Assad if you let us keep our ports. Just a thought!

Thank you Allira - there are pictures showing unaffected areas too, but the statistics are compelling

This article gives the facts and figures

www.context.news/socioeconomic-inclusion/syria-the-war-in-numbers

hate to use these words "its a must read" but its very clear, and clear why we are giving substantial aid.

On an optimistic note, there are videos showing girls and boys going back to school online.

Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc
A-bit like here really!

Then there was the earthquake last year

https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202412/medium-427218-fw2ruksoqai6vp2e6ucd5m4rri.jpg https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202412/medium-447596-file-20241204-15-p7a090.jpg

Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc
A-bit like here really!
Where do you live? 😯

Somewhere like this? One province after Russian airstrike.