The OBR downgrade growth forecast is halved now.

But FGT, it's not the case that Reeves is seeking excuses in this case.

Trump's actions - or threats of them - have real effects. It's across the OECD.

Trump trade wars are slowing global growth and fuelling inflation, says OECD
Economic organisation downgrades forecasts for growth in UK as well as US, Canada and Mexico due to tariffs"

Donald Trump’s trade wars are splintering the global economy and unpicking progress made to reboot growth and tackle inflation, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said

In its latest update on the health of the world economy, the leading Paris-based institution downgraded the prospects for global growth this year and next, including a sharp hit to activity in the US, Canada and Mexico.

The OECD cut its forecast for UK growth by 0.3 percentage points this year to 1.4%, and by 0.1 percentage points for 2026 to 1.2%, underscoring the challenge for the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, before next week’s spring statement

The body representing the world’s richest economies said recent higher levels of economic growth and progress to bring down inflation was being undermined by the fallout from higher trade barriers and mounting geopolitical uncertainty.

Cutting its global growth forecast for this year from 3.3% to 3.1%, it said that significant risks still remained. The global economy grew by 3.2% in 2024.

(more facts and figures follow)

Ref for above

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/mar/17/donald-trump-trade-wars-global-growth-inflation-oecd-uk-tariffs

Oh that’s okay then.
It’s Trump’s fault. For a minute there I just thought RR wasn’t much good at her job!

Trumps way of working - tariff threats, try to bargain, may or may not tariff, at what amount, which goods/services - are bound to affect UK firms including small business who currently trade or wish to trade with the US, and uncertainty about what the situation may be with EU trade.

Its the way he operates that is so dangerous to our economic security - business people don't know what to expect or plan for.

I think POTUS Trump is a get out of jail free card for the Chancellor and her economic policies.

Speaking from my business point of view (building and protective clothing, precision engineering equipment supplies) this government has done nothing to encourage growth.

Let's see what the Budget has to offer. There are certainly plans to reduce regulatory red tape in the offing announced ahead of time.
What would you like to see GG13?

However, it remains the case that we don't know what tariffs from/in the USA will do, obviously we are not in the "Canada" situation but it's an example of what can happen. Like every other advanced economy, we do depend on import/export limitations.

I'm not holding my breath for growth. I've seen too many Tory Chancellors promise the same as Reeves. It largely depends on inward investment and measures to make the British worker more productive.

Mind you …. The OBR! 😂
Their predictions are always way off, and yet they ‘approve’ budgets. Liz Truss was right - we need to ditch the OBR and make politicians 100% responsible for their budget decisions!

I dont trust Truss on any financial matters and this includes a Trump style slash and burn across an independent body thats a useful expert part of financial reviews.

Broadly speaking the chancellor gets to carry the can anyway.

Grantanow

I'm not holding my breath for growth. I've seen too many Tory Chancellors promise the same as Reeves. It largely depends on inward investment and measures to make the British worker more productive.

Yes, broadly agree. It does tie in with other discussions about how we get people into work too.

However the levels of uncertainty in terms of future planning for any firm involved in import/export - not just those who want to see abroad, but who import food, building, raw materials, many other goods/products doesnt help.

Welfare and rubber boats.
Sort this and watch the UK finances ⬆️

We've just had a green paper out on welfare. Where do you think further cuts should be made FGT?

Migrants, irregular entry ones. Eye watering costs per day.
France is right we are too generous.

That alone would ‘Fix the Foundations’.