Plan B: Building a trading network rather than retaliating against Trump?

foxie48

No detail there, Monica just very broad sweep observations otherwise it would have ended up being an essay rather than a quick post.

Politicsnerd another fan of the Times podcasts, I listened to TRIP US whilst walking the dog, the Story is my afternoon listening! There are so many excellent podcasts to listen to I actually need a longer day!

David49 the drop in the Dow is of real relevence to anyone who is coming up to retiring and that's if they live here or in the US. The rich can wait it out until the markets jump back but the ordinary citizen can't and in the US many more "ordinary" people have their savings in stocks and shares fwiw a 2% drop in value from a year ago represents a very big fall for investors as they invest to increase not decrease the value of their savings!

Foxie48 I feel the best of podcasts have replaced the longform articles that the broadsheet did (and sometimes still do) so well.

Maizie I know you're not so keen on the online articles. If you want to listen to the Times one you could probably go from about 17 minutes in and still get a lot out of it.

From what I’ve read there isn’t going to be good news anytime soon David49, if the reports coming out of the US are anything to go by. It’s going to bump along for weeks at this rate, Musk has now alienated himself by saying the tariffs advice is wrong, and Trump is digging his heels in. The longer he does that for, the harder it is going to be for him to backtrack whilst saving face. It’s getting messier by the day.

Well anyone who had insider knowledge that Trump was going to raise the tariffs with China again, will have just made a killing on the stock market! Any company with a supply chain that includes China or has products that are made in China has just taken a huge hit. Tesla has been very badly hit, Musk must be furious!

foxie48

Well anyone who had insider knowledge that Trump was going to raise the tariffs with China again, will have just made a killing on the stock market! Any company with a supply chain that includes China or has products that are made in China has just taken a huge hit. Tesla has been very badly hit, Musk must be furious!

He is.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/08/business/elon-musk-peter-navarro-comments-tariffs/index.html

David

"Not it they allow China and others to ignore the standards that we uphold, everything we import from China ignores environmental standards, freedom of speech, state subsidy, and intellectual property.
But I guess that’s OK if it’s cheap"

Well, its not OK, and I don't see a trading network including just anyone who isnt American.

PoliticsNerd

foxie48

No detail there, Monica just very broad sweep observations otherwise it would have ended up being an essay rather than a quick post.

Politicsnerd another fan of the Times podcasts, I listened to TRIP US whilst walking the dog, the Story is my afternoon listening! There are so many excellent podcasts to listen to I actually need a longer day!

David49 the drop in the Dow is of real relevence to anyone who is coming up to retiring and that's if they live here or in the US. The rich can wait it out until the markets jump back but the ordinary citizen can't and in the US many more "ordinary" people have their savings in stocks and shares fwiw a 2% drop in value from a year ago represents a very big fall for investors as they invest to increase not decrease the value of their savings!

Foxie48 I feel the best of podcasts have replaced the longform articles that the broadsheet did (and sometimes still do) so well.

From a pension point of view the Dow is still 60% higher than 5 yrs ago that’s 12% gain for each year, we are a long way from financial meltdown

Any reduction of Musk's power is good news, but as far as I know he is still using a chainsaw with DOGE. Discussion of tariffs has somewhat taken over of whats happening internally in the US but its still needing "keeping an eye on" as its a Project 25 ideology others support on the right over Europe.

David49

PoliticsNerd

foxie48

No detail there, Monica just very broad sweep observations otherwise it would have ended up being an essay rather than a quick post.

Politicsnerd another fan of the Times podcasts, I listened to TRIP US whilst walking the dog, the Story is my afternoon listening! There are so many excellent podcasts to listen to I actually need a longer day!

David49 the drop in the Dow is of real relevence to anyone who is coming up to retiring and that's if they live here or in the US. The rich can wait it out until the markets jump back but the ordinary citizen can't and in the US many more "ordinary" people have their savings in stocks and shares fwiw a 2% drop in value from a year ago represents a very big fall for investors as they invest to increase not decrease the value of their savings!

Foxie48 I feel the best of podcasts have replaced the longform articles that the broadsheet did (and sometimes still do) so well.

From a pension point of view the Dow is still 60% higher than 5 yrs ago that’s 12% gain for each year, we are a long way from financial meltdown

As I pointed out yesterday though David49, those figures mask what’s actually happened since Trump took office. This was yesterday.
‘As of the last market close, the S&P was down 16.1%, the Dow was down 13.0% and the Nasdaq was down 21.1% in Trump's second term.’

David49

Whitewavemark2

Wyllow3

I would also like to see a movement to control foreign ownership and control of national countries.

We now have much of the world interlinked with foreign investment too and fro between countries, and we also have, unlike the 1980's..

.... huge international financing companies that aren't attached to nation states in anyway but just look for the money. Benefitting the rich, th investors, who care little for the effects they cause.

That is why Trumps policies in the end are a backward looking protectionist yearning. We cant recreate the past.

Yes and why large economic blocks like the EU are in such a good position to set rules and control over these massive companies.

Not it they allow China and others to ignore the standards that we uphold, everything we import from China ignores environmental standards, freedom of speech, state subsidy, and intellectual property.

But I guess that’s OK if it’s cheap.

That is why we distinguish liberal democracies with a rule based, and open economy. from a closed authoritarian economy like China. The two can never combine, but they can agree to cooperate in stabilising the global economy, by managing and diverging from the Trump tariffs. Recognise the common good and condemn the divergence from the accepted rules of trade.

The bubble burst they lost a years gains at worst, most would have sold out at more. Musk seems dissatisfied with his boss but even today Tesla shares are 50% up on a year ago

PoliticsNerd,
Although you say we would be better without the chaos, I don't know. What will happen in the future? How can we predict the behaviors of the mad men?

For decades, i have seen economic instability, job loss, poverty, divided communities with conflict and distrust, war crimes, starvation, sabatoge, liars, murderers who don't feel the pain or suffering. Yes, today's world is just as awful as it has always been. A disruption could lead to improvements but really, no one knows.

Macadia

*PoliticsNerd*,
Although you say we would be better without the chaos, I don't know. What will happen in the future? How can we predict the behaviors of the mad men?

For decades, i have seen economic instability, job loss, poverty, divided communities with conflict and distrust, war crimes, starvation, sabatoge, liars, murderers who don't feel the pain or suffering. Yes, today's world is just as awful as it has always been. A disruption could lead to improvements but really, no one knows.

Trumps aim is to make it better for the US, he may or may not succeed in that aim, what is pretty sure is that it’s going to be worse for everyone else.
In the case of low income developing nations a lot worse

Bbc news is hinting at lower mortgage rates in the Uk to bolster consumer confidence and spending here. Also hinted at lower prices for goods imported presumably as new markets are being created in the Uk. Fingers crossed.

I've now listened to the Times Radio podcast a couple of times. The first thing I have taken from it is that other countries support the (high?) borrowing of the USA by treating their dollar as a trusted currency and a safe haven. This means the US can have high borrowing very cheaply; and they do(?)

If I have got this right and countries around the world are, to use Trump's language, subsidising the dollar, I guess the market will eventually reflect that. But is there anything governments can do to raise the cost to the US of their borrowing? Some sort of tariff or tax on the dollar itself perhaps?

PoliticsNerd

I've now listened to the Times Radio podcast a couple of times. The first thing I have taken from it is that other countries support the (high?) borrowing of the USA by treating their dollar as a trusted currency and a safe haven. This means the US can have high borrowing very cheaply; and they do(?)

If I have got this right and countries around the world are, to use Trump's language, subsidising the dollar, I guess the market will eventually reflect that. But is there anything governments can do to raise the cost to the US of their borrowing? Some sort of tariff or tax on the dollar itself perhaps?

It is the obsession with the supposed evils of ‘borrowing’, deficits and ‘national debt’ which is the root of our problems. Cutting state spending will only exacerbate them as ‘consumers’ become impoverished by job losses and social welfare barely enough to live on. Meanwhile, wealth flows ever upwards…

Anybody willing to take on China gets my vote. We certainly can not. We are too busy getting rid of any of our natural resources in the drive for net zero. We are just going to import, including the energy we need. This ridiculous government can then say 'oo aren't we goody two shoes, we aren't creating any carbon footprint in our country'!!! I wonder can this country survive another 4 years of labour?

PoliticsNerd

I've now listened to the Times Radio podcast a couple of times. The first thing I have taken from it is that other countries support the (high?) borrowing of the USA by treating their dollar as a trusted currency and a safe haven. This means the US can have high borrowing very cheaply; and they do(?)

If I have got this right and countries around the world are, to use Trump's language, subsidising the dollar, I guess the market will eventually reflect that. But is there anything governments can do to raise the cost to the US of their borrowing? Some sort of tariff or tax on the dollar itself perhaps?

US bonds are a similar price to our own but the US $ is the reserve currency so has an advantage, the currency cannot depreciate against itself, borrowing is very high 125% of GDP, in total 34 Trillion Dollars, last year alone added over 1 Trillion extra.

I would be concerned and would take measures to reduce that borrowing, the UK is in a similar position we are importing too much and the revenue is not enough to pay for public services.

The fear of inflation in the US is overstated, there will be some but it will be manageable, it’s the affect on developing countries that concern me most, unless tarrifs are reduced quickly it will collapse the economy.

MaizieD

PoliticsNerd

I've now listened to the Times Radio podcast a couple of times. The first thing I have taken from it is that other countries support the (high?) borrowing of the USA by treating their dollar as a trusted currency and a safe haven. This means the US can have high borrowing very cheaply; and they do(?)

If I have got this right and countries around the world are, to use Trump's language, subsidising the dollar, I guess the market will eventually reflect that. But is there anything governments can do to raise the cost to the US of their borrowing? Some sort of tariff or tax on the dollar itself perhaps?

It is the obsession with the supposed evils of ‘borrowing’, deficits and ‘national debt’ which is the root of our problems. Cutting state spending will only exacerbate them as ‘consumers’ become impoverished by job losses and social welfare barely enough to live on. Meanwhile, wealth flows ever upwards…

It is going to flow upwards even faster as Trump is suggesting that the debt to China is not going to be honoured.

God knows what will happen

Why would any country want to engage with Trump therefore if loans are not honoured? Bad risk. Trump will presumably need to raise further funding during his presidency so why would he present his country as an unreliable investment?
Is there a way of calling in loans?

American consumers are scared as are businesses

"Trump rips up rulebook on trade and businesses are left reeling"

Thoughtful and comprehensive article
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87p12wpgjpo

If Trump carries on like this Ronib there will be doubts about investment if Trump doesnt honour commitments and carries on this massive trade war with China never mind other countries.

The Telegraph led this bring with the continuing bust up between Musk and the rest of the administration on tariffs.

Press secretary Karen Leavitt just commented "boys will be boys".

Meanwhile Russia is not happy with bessie mate Trump, danger of China/Russia alliance.

From I player news feed just now:

"Russia has accused the US of flouting international trade rules by imposing 104% charges on imports from China.

“Washington doesn’t seem itself binded by the norms of international trade law,” Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova says.

When Donald Trump raised border taxes on Chinese goods by 10% in February, China complained to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which settles trade disputes.
Zakharova says the tariff decisions taken by Trump “violate the fundamental rule of the WTO”.

Russia has been spared from the list of over 60 countries hit by Trump’s latest tariffs,

but the foreign ministry spokesperson tells reporters that the country is taking steps to minimise any possible damage by increasing its interactions with China"

Meanwhile the EU is discussing these retaliatory measures and voting today.

Knowing a lot less about Internation Trade than some posters on here, could not a Country like China, sell a product to the Uk, with whatever tariff that would entail, and then the Uk sell that product onto the US?
Thus getting around the 104% US import tariff from China?

I think that 'rules of origin' might be invoked, fancythat. Also, the UK probably imposes a tariff on Chinese goods already, which would increase the expense.

Though I don't know much about international trade, either, so could be talking out of my rear end...