Plan B: Building a trading network rather than retaliating against Trump?

China’s trade with the USA represents nearly 3% of GDP.

What I think is more significant and imo may have spooked the bond market is the fact that the USA is in effect in debt to China - who has acted as the USA banker throughout the past few decades.

I think China is almost certainly the USA’s chief creditor to the tune of something like 800bn.

It is rumoured (or it might be a fact) that Trump had considered defaulting, but after this weeks tumoltuos events, he may be persuaded that this would be a tad insane, but when has that stopped him?

Tumultuous!!

Totally agree with you, David. The Chinese leaders will be OK with any potential hardships for their population. The history of modern China has many examples of this. They share Mr Trump's views of winning at any price, and are comfortable with their populace paying the price
Citizens of the USA may not be so keen to suffer deprivation without protest.

I make the figure 4% of chinese exports is to the US. [3.56 trillion $ divided by 145 billion].
Still a surprisingly small amount.

I think China is almost certainly the USA’s chief creditor to the tune of something like 800bn.

Where did you find that detail please?

There used to be a pie chart and graphs of who owed who, country by country, but I havent seen it on the internet in recent years.

China is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt but we need to bare in mind that although foreign nations hold significant amounts of U.S. debt, the majority of U.S. debt is held domestically by American institutions, investors, and the Federal Reserve itself.

This must mean China has a weapon if it chooses to uses it but, if it did, what defence would Trump choose?

PoliticsNerd

China is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt but we need to bare in mind that although foreign nations hold significant amounts of U.S. debt, the majority of U.S. debt is held domestically by American institutions, investors, and the Federal Reserve itself.

This must mean China has a weapon if it chooses to uses it but, if it did, what defence would Trump choose?

He has talked about defaulting, which is as I said almost certainly why the bond markets are spooked.

Another interesting Times Radio news. www.youtube.com/watch?v=taEHW8v7254

Thank you Whitewave. Do you think he would/could?

ronib

Yes David49 it could be catastrophic for the USA over the next five years. Does the West really want to be tied to the USA with Trump at the helm? A stronger West is to our advantage and if it’s a wake up call to cut free from the USA, it is not necessarily a bad idea.

We have seen a fragmented response by NATO to any conflict in the past, only a few countries have contributed to the action. I have no confidence that a united response to any future conflict will actually be possible.

With Trump being so unpredictable, making threats and directives then withdrawing them I am hoping that when the new order becomes established the US will still be a leader in western defence, if they’re not Russia and China will be able to take over whoever they want.

PoliticsNerd

Thank you Whitewave. Do you think he would/could?

Well he could.

Not convinced that he would, as what has happened this past week would be like a walk in the park compared to him defaulting.

I am beginning to think that this past week has been an entirely manipulated event.

Maybe and a deep breath here, the USA is no longer our leader of choice? David49 The West must step up. We cannot afford to align with such an unstable regime?

With regard to NATO, only 1 country has every invoked article 5 and that was USA after 9/11.

ronib

Maybe and a deep breath here, the USA is no longer our leader of choice? David49 The West must step up. We cannot afford to align with such an unstable regime?

Trump is certainly creating instability at present, there isn’t a united European military system to replace the US, I have a high level of confidence that a new order where the UK and other NATO nations contribute more alongside the US.

Trump is highly likely to loose his majority at the mid term elections, maybe moderate republicans will stop him before that and we return to sensible politics. If he takes enough rope he will probably hang himself, until then don’t aggravate the situation.

I think that by the time Trump is done, he will have completely destroyed any trust of the US on a global scale - both as an ally and as a trading partner. He will find the US shut out dramatically instead of being centre stage.

As a Canadian, I sincerely hope that we’re able to shift to other trade partners and let the US do whatever in their own backyard. The problem is, the US isn’t capable of sustaining itself. It simply doesn’t have the resources to do so. If Canada quit selling oil, lumber and power to the US, they’d find themselves in very deep trouble very quickly.

As it is, consumers are having an impact. Canadians are choosing to boycott American products and cancelling any travel plans. Over the next few months, I expect to hear many US industries feeling the hit of those boycotts.

And even when Trump eventually leaves, I don’t see a rebound happening quickly, if ever.

Whitewavemark2

With regard to NATO, only 1 country has every invoked article 5 and that was USA after 9/11.

That was in response to a terrorist attack not a invasion of a member nation.

Yes that is right.

I read that there is an apparent push by Reeves to persuade the government to remove some of the trade barriers resulting from Brexit.

Tbh I suspect that this has been planned for some time - but slowly slowly etc.

Alignment first them hopefully, CU and SM.

Good oh!

Headline in today's Washington Post!

"Less than four hours before President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was pausing tariffs sent markets soaring, he posted online telling his 9.4 million followers that it was a good time to buy.

“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” he posted on his social media site, Truth Social, at 9:37 a.m. Eastern time Wednesday. Shortly after 1 p.m., he announced on the same site that he would pause most new tariffs, causing the ailing stock markets to sharply rise."

Because of all the current uncertainty closer ties with the EU look much more politically palatable, because a negative impact on the UK economy is widely predicted, higher tax increases are also on the agenda.

I think you’re absolutely right MercuryQueen, the damage has been done, and there will never be a return to how things were.

Whitewavemark2

I read that there is an apparent push by Reeves to persuade the government to remove some of the trade barriers resulting from Brexit.

Tbh I suspect that this has been planned for some time - but slowly slowly etc.

Alignment first them hopefully, CU and SM.

Good oh!

It would certainly seem reasonable Whitewave.

As far as I'm aware each of the states of America is as big as a European country so it's amazing that they have stayed "United" for as long s the have.

I think being in a trading group and Nato would suit us better, currently, than being in a political union but, of course, that is my bias talking. It's not a particularly fact based opinion.

MercuryQueen

I think that by the time Trump is done, he will have completely destroyed any trust of the US on a global scale - both as an ally and as a trading partner. He will find the US shut out dramatically instead of being centre stage.

As a Canadian, I sincerely hope that we’re able to shift to other trade partners and let the US do whatever in their own backyard. The problem is, the US isn’t capable of sustaining itself. It simply doesn’t have the resources to do so. If Canada quit selling oil, lumber and power to the US, they’d find themselves in very deep trouble very quickly.

As it is, consumers are having an impact. Canadians are choosing to boycott American products and cancelling any travel plans. Over the next few months, I expect to hear many US industries feeling the hit of those boycotts.

And even when Trump eventually leaves, I don’t see a rebound happening quickly, if ever.

So pleased to get a Canadian perspective. It's been great to read the American ones too.

Trump recommending people to buy - before he dropped the tariffs that he has - is such a corrupt act. I bet his buddies knew of it sooner, too.

Picking up the tone of the thread, whats coming out to me is "unreliable" and "alternatives".

Meanwhile, as documented on the Trump thread, he continues to take away the freedoms and sacking tens of thousands of his own people whilst giving no clear path to prosperity for the "rust belts".

We have to consider these too in terms of future trade and diplomatic relations with the USA.

Indeed Wyllow- Trump is telling everyone to buy now..I posted on another thread about potty mouth Marjorie Taylor Green. She sold her stocks and deposited the money in safer waters just before tarriffgate, and is now, free to repurchase at rates wholly favourable to herself.
Coincidence? Premonition? Insider trading? I could hazard a guess.