Plan B: Building a trading network rather than retaliating against Trump?

I’m not at all confident that Trump will win a trade war with China, for several reasons:-

China has full control of the population whatever hardships come will be endured without unrest

China has purchase and selling relationships worldwide and will use them actively against the US, exclusive contracts etc

Others have estimated that only 2% of the Chinese GDP is dependant on the US, that seems low to me, if it is true China can ignore the US if it wishes

We are seeing China and Russia moving closer together, economically or militarily that can only be bad. With the US withdrawing from western alliances it could be catastrophic.

Another idea being put forward is that Trump has no natural supporters (link below)

Phil Moorhouse suggests that the only thing keeping Trump's policy alive is the ignorance of the general public, who are about to be hit very hard, and the fear Trump inspires in those who could and should stop him.

He goes on to explain how trade is broadly seen by the left and right wings of politics and then talks about how these views feed into general trade policy. He points out that Trump's policy do not sit anywhere along the left/right view of trade.

Trump's policy, he suggests, represents extreme protectionism, (which could appeal to the left which may be why the Maga blue colour workers think the should support it) but it is not it's not based on workers or consumer rights which is what you would expect from the left.

His Maga supporters think it's going to introduce a golden age but Moorhouse feels there is no chance of that happening. Everything, he suggests, point to the fact that Trump sees tariffs as an end in themseves.

He then goes into greater detail.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PlVHRirzDY

Its most certainly not good news for talks trying to keep British Steel open as its Chinese owned, Jingye, while trade wars rage.

FGT, for goodness sake, this isn't really a pause - he's just entering on a trade ward with China, which will have implications everywhere.

Its not a pause for Canada or Mexico, as he has kept the high tariffs/tariff wars going there.

its not a pause for cars, steel, aluminium as he has kept across the board 25% tariffs on for everyone.

and above all, when he changes his mind every day, its not a pause for uncertainty for countries like us or the EU or the very poor countries in the world who don't know wtf he will do in two or four days or 2 weeks when he could slap tariffs on again if he has a mind to it.

You really think he'll stop the knee jerk reactions at home, as well?

I agree fancythat. We are told ‘business likes certainty’ which makes sense. A pause now is surely a Good Thing. Pragmatism rather than knee jerks will steady the markets.

But it's the uncertainty that is a bigger issue, FGT2, in my opinion.
I dont think he can keep spooking things, and think he will get away with it, on the US's behalf.

Trump goes big and then rows back and not it's not the end of the world - as many of us have said on here.

David49

fancythat

Knowing a lot less about Internation Trade than some posters on here, could not a Country like China, sell a product to the Uk, with whatever tariff that would entail, and then the Uk sell that product onto the US?
Thus getting around the 104% US import tariff from China?

With a personal item you could, if you tried to do that with
commercial goods country of origin would soon be exposed

Well, I was wondering what the position will be with British Steel (a euphemism) which is owned by the Chinese Jingye Group, as they sold steel to the USA.

However, that problem may not arise ☹
Although, with the tariffs being imposed on China, they may find it expedient to keep British Steel viable 🤞

He may have got spooked by this?

US bond yields had also risen amid a sharp sell-off -- a major economic red light as sovereign government debt is normally seen as a safe haven for investors in troubled times.

David49

Unpredictability continues there is a 90 day Pause in Tarriff changes for those countries that have NOT retaliated.

A sigh of relief for now.

He is such an unusual man/President.

David49

Unpredictability continues there is a 90 day Pause in Tarriff changes for those countries that have NOT retaliated.

A sigh of relief for now.

Trade war with China - Trump's China tariff is 125%
Where will that lead us? (Can we start making computers and phones and more here, use those components please, forget the US....)

Everyone else 10%.

Sigh of relief - no. Uncertainty continues which will affect countries ability to make decisions. I say keep on building trade relations with others.

Only people gaining as has been said are the rich on the stock markets.

People in the states whose jobs rely in imports will soon suffer, and as I keep harping on about, prices for meds that come from China affordable for the US rich - not all.

foxie48

What an absolute farce, the man is a complete .....words fail me! He's either a complete idiot or he and his accomplices are scamming the markets for trillions in insider trading. TBH I think it's probably both. If anyone thinks he is doing this for the benefit of the blue collar workers in the rust belt, they need to open their eyes to reality. We are watching a con man in action, operating on a massive scale of corruption, testing every check and balance in the US governmental system and getting away with it.

Yes

What an absolute farce, the man is a complete .....words fail me! He's either a complete idiot or he and his accomplices are scamming the markets for trillions in insider trading. TBH I think it's probably both. If anyone thinks he is doing this for the benefit of the blue collar workers in the rust belt, they need to open their eyes to reality. We are watching a con man in action, operating on a massive scale of corruption, testing every check and balance in the US governmental system and getting away with it.

The biggest of climb downs then. He won’t be trusted now, the world has already changed.

Unpredictability continues there is a 90 day Pause in Tarriff changes for those countries that have NOT retaliated.

A sigh of relief for now.

What a charmer

“Trump says countries hit by his tariffs are calling up and "kissing my ass" in a bid to negotiate”

I don't think I've ever had to use so many question marks in my own posts but it it's great to read the results of everyone's knowledge and research and everyone's ability to say "we don't yet know".

The first concrete signs that there will be USA bypassing are emerging.
‘Japan and Canada agree to cooperate on market stability
Japan and Canada have agreed to cooperate to maintain stability in financial markets and the global financial system, Tokyo's finance ministry says.
The Japanese finance minister and his Canadian counterpart shared concerns over the series of tariffs implemented by the US, according to a statement from the ministry.’
BBC News.

Trump is such a charming man, he says "countries are licking my arse". It beggars belief that we have this idiot at the helm in the US. He may fool Americans into believing his hogwash but clearly the world markets see him for what he is and are acting accordingly.

The US Bond market is having what some are calling "a Liz Truss moment". This is very serious as it means US bonds are starting to lose their status as a safe haven in times of financial instability. It also means US government debt becomes more expensive which is the exact opposite of what Trump has said he wants to achieve. This will certainly affect the UK adversely too. We are in what is starting to look like another financial crisis!

petra

ronib

Why would any country want to engage with Trump therefore if loans are not honoured? Bad risk. Trump will presumably need to raise further funding during his presidency so why would he present his country as an unreliable investment?
Is there a way of calling in loans?

According to this article ( Norman Lamont has mentioned it) over 50 countries ( and counting) contacted Trump very early on after his tariff announcement.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/6/over-50-countries-seek-us-trade-talks-after-tariffs-trump-officials

Contacting Trump to see if they can negotiate a better deal, but not actually doing so though? I think the success rate so far is 0%?

ronib

Why would any country want to engage with Trump therefore if loans are not honoured? Bad risk. Trump will presumably need to raise further funding during his presidency so why would he present his country as an unreliable investment?
Is there a way of calling in loans?

According to this article ( Norman Lamont has mentioned it) over 50 countries ( and counting) contacted Trump very early on after his tariff announcement.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/6/over-50-countries-seek-us-trade-talks-after-tariffs-trump-officials

fancythat

Knowing a lot less about Internation Trade than some posters on here, could not a Country like China, sell a product to the Uk, with whatever tariff that would entail, and then the Uk sell that product onto the US?
Thus getting around the 104% US import tariff from China?

With a personal item you could, if you tried to do that with
commercial goods country of origin would soon be exposed

I think that 'rules of origin' might be invoked, fancythat. Also, the UK probably imposes a tariff on Chinese goods already, which would increase the expense.

Though I don't know much about international trade, either, so could be talking out of my rear end...

Knowing a lot less about Internation Trade than some posters on here, could not a Country like China, sell a product to the Uk, with whatever tariff that would entail, and then the Uk sell that product onto the US?
Thus getting around the 104% US import tariff from China?