These results don’t surprise me at all. The change had already been reflected in the General Election where former Conservative voters (especially older voters) switched to Reform.
This is how older voters voted in the 2019 GE:
Tory 67%
Labour 14%
LibDem 11%
And in the 2024 GE:
Tory 46%
Reform 15%
Labour 20%
LibDem 11%
Few people could dislike the Conservatives and Reform as much as I do. If one takes power from another, I really don’t care.
I’m interested to see what Reform does now. Farage himself admitted to Sky’s Beth Rigby that his party's biggest challenge would be delivery. That’s quite an admission.
What does reform stand for other than anti-immigration or Trump-echoing on DEI?
There are many newly-elected councillors who are aout to get a very sharp shock when they realise what their new job actually entails. I suspect history will repeat itself.
Pollster Peter Kellner in the Guardian:
Reform should make the most of its success – it won’t last
Nigel Farage should enjoy Reform’s triumphs while he can. This may be as good as it gets. In May 2015, his former party, Ukip, gained control of Thanet district council. Before last night, it was the only time any of his parties won the power to run anything. What pointers does it offer to the months ahead?
Ukip’s 10-seat majority in Thanet should have given it four years of power to show what its new brand of politics could achieve. Alas, it turned out, that was very little. Six months later, five of its councillors defected, following internal rows about a local airport. A byelection subsequently restored its majority, but only until another councillor defected, saying Ukip had failed to make “significant change”. The following year, 12 Ukip councillors peeled off to form an independent group. Ukip’s days in charge of Thanet were over. In 2019, it fielded just three candidates. They all lost.
Thanet was not the only place where Ukip struggled. In 2017, seven of its 12 councillors in Great Yarmouth defected to the Conservatives – although to be fair, some defections elsewhere went the other way, including two Tory MPs, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless.
Maybe it will all be different this time. After today, Reform will have many more chances to show what it does with power. An era of milk, honey and joyful unity – or arsenic, ashes and destructive divisions?