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US/UK Trade deal

(55 Posts)
Wyllow3 Thu 08-May-25 14:46:08

Announcements are imminent. Trump will announce first. But there is a salutary warning:

But there is a notable difference in how the UK and the US have been describing this arrangement

The chancellor told me about an "economic and prosperity deal" but the president calls this a "major trade deal

This difference has been there since Keir Starmer met the president in the Oval Office.

What to look out for - it does seem modest

The narrow scope appears to have meant some consideration of lower tariffs for US exports of cars to the UK (from 10% to 2.5%).
In return, the UK could win some sort of tariff-free or lower tariff quota exemption from the 25% tariffs on cars. This is the UK’s biggest goods export. The generosity or not of this depends entirely on the number agreed.

Something similar could apply in steel.

The big problem was pharmaceuticals. The president has not announced his trade restrictions on medicines yet. The danger was for the UK to agree a deal, but then be hit by a subsequent global tariff on its second most important goods export

And there are still concerns about any trade deal being aid in with the NHS.

Several sources are following events as they happen including BBC

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn91dxzv4pnt?post=asset%3Ad1f519b8-2927-486e-9592-19a877eeca4c#post

Wyllow3 Fri 09-May-25 13:38:37

Yes, I'm optimistic on this one. The BBC:

"The Governor of the Bank of England has said the UK now needs to "rebuild" Britain's trade relationship with the European Union and do "everything we can" to improve long term trade, after yesterday's US deal"

Andrew Bailey told the BBC that as a public official he did not take a view on Brexit, but that reversing the post Brexit hit to UK-EU trade would be "beneficial".

The Government is currently in talks with the EU on its plan to reset its trade and security relationship ahead of a summit later this month".

David it was made absolutely clear and specific that food imports have to meet our standards, I don't know why you have put a ? over it. I don't actually understand the need to "Swap" beef across the pond really but presume its specialist top of the range products.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 09-May-25 08:12:27

I think that is sensible not to put too much importance on this tariff deal.

It isn’t a trade deal, and only represents some of the trade done with USA.

What will make a big difference to the U.K. will be a trade deal done with the EU - hopefully some time this month and which will - all being well - go towards closing the 15% drop in GDP since Brexit.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 09-May-25 08:09:00

Key Points

1. Automotive tariffs
With Starmer heading to the Jaguar Land Rover plant in the Midlands to herald the announcement, this was expected to be a major part of the deal, and it is.

Tariffs for UK cars imported into the US will be cut from 27.5% to 10%, up to a maximum of 100,000 cars a year, close to total exports last year. This was, Starmer said, a “huge and important reduction” – even if it is capped, and still a tariff.

2. Steel and aluminium tariffs
US tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium have been reduced to zero under the deal. This is relatively little in overall trade terms, comprising only about £700m a year.

However, steel has a political resonance beyond its economic heft, with the UK government stepping in last month to take control of British Steel to prevent its Chinese owner shutting the Scunthorpe plant.

3. Agriculture
The most potentially tricky area of the deal, not least due to concerns among UK voters – and farmers – about chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef.

The result was hailed by Downing Street as “a win for both nations”. As ever, the devil could be in the detail. Government officials said there had been no compromise on food standards, while the deal would open exclusive access for UK beef farmers to the US.

However, it also includes £5bn worth of agricultural exports from the US to the UK, with the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, saying the deal would “exponentially increase our beef exports” to the UK.

The National Farmers Union cautiously welcomed the proposals, but said that UK arable farmers could have concerns about the inclusion of large amounts of bioethanol imports from the US.

4. Other areas
A White House guide to the deal which, while brief, gave more details than its Downing Street equivalent, listed a series of other, more specific agreements, including:

“Streamlined” customs procedures for US imports to the UK.
Preferential access to UK aerospace components for US manufacturers.
Increased help for US firms with UK procurement.
5. Pharmaceuticals
And now for areas where there was no news. Trump has been threatening tariffs on this, an important area of the UK economy, but it does not fall under the agreement – yet.

Trump’s commerce secretary, speaking after his boss, indicated that more could come: “It lays out the plan that you can work with us in autos, you can work with us with aero and commercial. You can work with us in pharmaceuticals.”

6. Film industry
The UK film industry reacted with horror to Trump’s promise this week to impose a 100% tariff on all movies “produced in foreign lands”, with predictions it could wipe out a business worth billions of pounds to the UK economy.

There was no carve out for this in the US-UK deal – but this is not a surprise. To begin with, Trump’s announcement was just days ago. Also, it was less a policy than a rant on social media, and it remains to be seen if it will be imposed, and if so, how.

7. Digital services taxes or online safety
There had been speculation that Trump’s team would insist on concessions in one or both these areas as a price to reduce tariffs – which could have caused a big political storm.

But answering questions in the Commons on the deal, Douglas Alexander, the trade minister, told MPs there had been no changes on either.

Guardian today

David49 Fri 09-May-25 06:41:11

Starmer has played the negotiations as well as possible and has achieved a deal we can live with, but the way he was pandering to Trumps vanity was pretty cringeworthy.
The deal on food is somewhat ambiguous, it probably means that US food will be allowed in if it is certified to our standards, there is plenty of organic and conservation grade food that would meet our requirements.

M0nica Thu 08-May-25 22:55:06

The real sticky industries, food, pharmaceuticals are nto included in this deal. This deal is just in sectors where we are big importers of American goods (planes) or our industries are too small to be a threat (steel).

Yes, it is a colossal waste of time and effort and Starmer is politic in playing it up, keeping Trump sweet on small things will make it easier to stand up to him in areas where it matters.

Casdon Thu 08-May-25 21:53:42

I don’t know Wyllow3 - if they have to go through the same process with all the countries they have imposed tariffs on, it will take forever, and probably, as M0nica pointed out with the UK, end up pretty much where they were in the first place - what a huge waste of effort for no gain either for the USA or the countries they negotiate with. It’s just one almighty mess, although at least for the UK it’s now less of one than for everybody else.

Wyllow3 Thu 08-May-25 21:42:50

Casdon - either it gives Trump a chance to save face with all the fuss and fanfare he's had af a trade deal

or he will use the opportunity to attack, say, the EU, by not doing deals?

Casdon Thu 08-May-25 21:32:36

M0nica

It is a trade deal, but nothing special and dealing just with the easy bits where our trade with the US does not threaten their manu facturing. We spend billions on Boing planes - the US allows Rolls Royce aero spares in and so on.

As the BBC reports ^Though hailed by leaders in the two countries as significant, analysts said it did not appear to meaningfully alter the terms of trade between the countries, as they stood before the changes introduced by Trump this year.^

It’s just better than the USA tariffs now imposed on all other countries except Russia.
I wonder what the USA has gained if they agree similar deals with other countries too - what will be the point of all the posturing?

M0nica Thu 08-May-25 21:04:45

It is a trade deal, but nothing special and dealing just with the easy bits where our trade with the US does not threaten their manu facturing. We spend billions on Boing planes - the US allows Rolls Royce aero spares in and so on.

As the BBC reports Though hailed by leaders in the two countries as significant, analysts said it did not appear to meaningfully alter the terms of trade between the countries, as they stood before the changes introduced by Trump this year.

Wyllow3 Thu 08-May-25 18:53:42

Let's hope we can work on this next. Reduce this complexity (which has always been an aim in the manifesto)

Casdon Thu 08-May-25 18:46:42

Trade with the EU
According to the ONS, UK exports to the EU have fallen by approximately 15% since Brexit, while imports from the EU have decreased by around 18%. This decline is attributed to the increased complexity and cost of trading with the EU under the new arrangements.18 Mar 2025
commerce.newable.co.uk
Brexit has cost the UK up to 30% of International Trade

Casdon Thu 08-May-25 18:44:59

As exports to the EU from the UK have reduced significantly since Brexit, I’m sure what Mamie says is correct, because less smaller businesses export there now due to the bureaucracy of the process. Delicatessen type items like cheese are bound to have been affected.

Wyllow3 Thu 08-May-25 18:42:44

Well it was as RR described, a modest trade deal, but its reported that on the whole business and unions are positive.

US imposed car export tariffs will reduce from 27.5% to 10%. This applies to a quota of 100,000 UK cars, which is almost the total the UK exported last year.

The 25% steel tariffs is now down to zero

The US will have preferential access to high-quality UK aerospace components

For agriculture, there will be "reciprocal market access" on beef which means that UK farmers will be given a quota for 13,000 metric tonnes of beef to be exported to the US, and the US granted the same, However all products have to meet UK food standards

A tariff on US ethanol entering the UK has been removed

The creation of a secure supply chain for pharmaceutical products but this involves no compromise with NHS principles/practice as some feared

Rest to remain 10%, further discussions underway as to for example the film industry (surprisingly more important than one might think as many US films have UK involvement).

So for me its a so far so good, well done so far, and as promised does not affect our trading relationships with EU.

Mollygo Thu 08-May-25 18:37:41

But it’s always been difficult to get English cheeses in France, Belgium, Holland, Italy and Germany for as long as I’ve been travelling to Europe.
We always took our English cheese with us to gîtes we stayed in because some of the party, didn’t like European cheeses and apart from the occasional cheddar, English cheese was rare.
For the other things, we’ve had no problems so far, but maybe it’ll be different when we’re on the continent this year.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 08-May-25 18:37:14

Mamie I haven’t been to France recently, my relatives are not in France.

I can only go on what I have seen and what my relatives have told me

Mamie Thu 08-May-25 18:21:10

GrannyGravy13

MayBee70 last time I food shopped (this afternoon) there was an abundance of fresh fruit, vegetables, cheeses, charcuterie along with wine, spirits and beer all from EU countries.

Car show rooms are full of EU brand cars.

A fair percentage of our electricity comes from EU countries.

The U.K. trades with EU countries daily…

Have been in mainland Europe end of April, no shortage of U.K. goods.

That is not the case GG13. Here in Normandy it is incredibly hard to find the variety of food from the UK we took for granted before Brexit. Our local shopkeepers tell us how difficult it is for them to source. The salmon industry seems to survive, but cheese is very hard to find.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 08-May-25 18:19:24

Whitewavemark2

GrannyGravy13

Last line of my post?

We have family in three EU countries, they are able to buy U.K. goods.

The U.K. definitely exports to the EU

😄 I would certainly hope do, ‘cause if we didn’t we’d be completely b…….d

Exactly 👍

Whitewavemark2 Thu 08-May-25 18:18:16

GrannyGravy13

Last line of my post?

We have family in three EU countries, they are able to buy U.K. goods.

The U.K. definitely exports to the EU

😄 I would certainly hope do, ‘cause if we didn’t we’d be completely b…….d

GrannyGravy13 Thu 08-May-25 18:13:34

Last line of my post?

We have family in three EU countries, they are able to buy U.K. goods.

The U.K. definitely exports to the EU

Whitewavemark2 Thu 08-May-25 18:12:14

That should be sorted this month - hopefully. 🤞

MaizieD Thu 08-May-25 18:10:37

GrannyGravy13

MayBee70 last time I food shopped (this afternoon) there was an abundance of fresh fruit, vegetables, cheeses, charcuterie along with wine, spirits and beer all from EU countries.

Car show rooms are full of EU brand cars.

A fair percentage of our electricity comes from EU countries.

The U.K. trades with EU countries daily…

Have been in mainland Europe end of April, no shortage of U.K. goods.

Those are imports from the EU, GG13. I think MayBee was talking about exports to the EU

GrannyGravy13 Thu 08-May-25 17:36:47

MayBee70 last time I food shopped (this afternoon) there was an abundance of fresh fruit, vegetables, cheeses, charcuterie along with wine, spirits and beer all from EU countries.

Car show rooms are full of EU brand cars.

A fair percentage of our electricity comes from EU countries.

The U.K. trades with EU countries daily…

Have been in mainland Europe end of April, no shortage of U.K. goods.

MayBee70 Thu 08-May-25 17:20:57

Well, Brexit was dependent on a trade deal with America so I would hope those who voted leave will welcome this deal. Maybe pandering to Trumps ego is the only way to deal with him? We’ve got to trade with someone given that we’ve lost our closest and biggest market.

Casdon Thu 08-May-25 16:18:32

Trump’s propensity to talk garbage about important topics hasn’t diminished. I’ve had to mute him.

Desdemona Thu 08-May-25 16:17:41

Haven't taken in the details yet but that was sickeningly sycophantic behaviour by Starmer and comparing their 'achievement' to VE day is absurd.