Falling birth rate

M0nica

and the availability of electricity. Electricity introduces light and television into households, so they go to bed later.

Fascinating research paper on the subject here www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-demographic-economics/article/fertility-electricity-and-television-is-there-a-link-evidence-from-pakistan-19902018/65B43B0D650BEF5B78AFEDEE15CBFCF5

Yes I was going to mention that, but thought it would be “poo-pooed”, with electricity comes TV, the second male pastime (after beer) is football, even in rural areas, someone has a TV with a satellite link.
Most families wouldn't have a TV in the house/hut, families is very flexible too a lot of children get unofficially adopted.

and the availability of electricity. Electricity introduces light and television into households, so they go to bed later.

Fascinating research paper on the subject here www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-demographic-economics/article/fertility-electricity-and-television-is-there-a-link-evidence-from-pakistan-19902018/65B43B0D650BEF5B78AFEDEE15CBFCF5

The biggest influence on birth rate is education of women and access to clinics for contraception, urban ares have some advantages but rural areas are largely neglected. Islamic areas are expanding making the problem worse, dont expect any changes for many decades.

What a lot of nonsense is being talked about the effect the catholic church has on birth rates in any country in the world, especially Africa.

Here is a link to world birthrates en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate None of the countries in the top 25 with the higherst birthrate is predominantly catholic or even christian. But at leats 10 are predominantly muslim.

Look at the 25 countries with the lowest birthrates and they are predominantly christian and/or catholic.

People who have nothing to do with the catholic church or left it long ago are always dredging up stories the religion from their childhood. Things have changed a lot, while the catholic church does still frown on contraception, it is far lower key than it was and the vast majority of catholic families, mine included use contraception to plan their families.

Large families are driven more by cultural than religious norms, although the two can be intertwined.

Grantanow

MaizieD

Most of the population increase is in Africa and that is where birth control measures should be applied.

Oh, really? Just like that?

And who is going to 'apply' them?

The UN and Western governments should put pressure on African leaders to introduce freely available contraception. It will be a struggle of course and not helped by Catholic missions and other religious groups keen to see their flocks increase but if it fails the world population will balloon until it is controlled by starvation.

It’s a taboo subject governments are far to macho male dominated to consider it, don’t expect catholic or any other “missionaries” to promote contraception, overseas NGOs are very restricted these days. Local officials of whatever faith now dominate all community projects, now USaid has been cut there is far less cash for all aid projects, no cash - nothing gets done.

MaizieD

^Most of the population increase is in Africa and that is where birth control measures should be applied.^

Oh, really? Just like that?

And who is going to 'apply' them?

The UN and Western governments should put pressure on African leaders to introduce freely available contraception. It will be a struggle of course and not helped by Catholic missions and other religious groups keen to see their flocks increase but if it fails the world population will balloon until it is controlled by starvation.

MaizieD

^Most of the population increase is in Africa and that is where birth control measures should be applied.^

Oh, really? Just like that?

And who is going to 'apply' them?

I do wonder if many women in areas of Africa would like the choice but are unable to for various reasons, one being limited access to clinics .

Population control is not on the agenda anywhere in Africa it’s a taboo subject

Most of the population increase is in Africa and that is where birth control measures should be applied.

Oh, really? Just like that?

And who is going to 'apply' them?

World population is rising steeply and will ultimately be limited by food a nd water supplies. Most of the population increase is in Africa and that is where birth control measures should be applied.

Skydancer

Agree. The world needs fewer people.

Most definitely

M0nica

UN

Copied direct from Wikipedia

Looks like 10.3bn in 2086 to me

The 2022 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects report[24] represents a departure from the pattern of the previous ten years, it was the first to project a peak in the 21st century. It expected that a slowing of the population growth rate will lead to a population peak of 10.4 billion in the 2086 in the medium scenario, after which it would then begin to slowly fall. This shift from earlier projections of peak population and predicted date of zero population growth comes from a more rapid drop in Africa's birth rate than previous projections had expected.[25] For example, the 2012 report predicted that the population of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, would rise to 914 million by 2100; the 2022 report lowers that to 546 million, a reduction of 368 million; the 2024 report lowered that further to 477 million, a reduction of 69 million.[20][8][25] Jose Rimon of Johns Hopkins University suggested, "We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa. Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did."[25] The 2024 edition brought the peak forward to 2084, with the population topping at 10.3 billion.[26]

UN

David49 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections has different un statistics to yours.

M0nica

David49 World population is starting to fall and all the signs are that it will continue to do so. The cause is irrelevant.

But I am in absolute agreement that people living then will adjust to it just as people adjusted to the Black Death and the rapidly rising population caused by technical and medical advances of the last 200 years.

In the end the results will be beneficial, until a time maybe 3 or 4 centuries from now, when there will be a problem of a too small population and society will adjust again. How? I have absolutely no idea, who knows what life in 300 years will be like/ But adjust they will.

The UN differ from your opinion they predict population rising to over 10 billion by 2080, then stabilizing until the end of the century.
Of course another 75 yrs of global warming may well change that, unless we get serious about CO2 production.

David49 World population is starting to fall and all the signs are that it will continue to do so. The cause is irrelevant.

But I am in absolute agreement that people living then will adjust to it just as people adjusted to the Black Death and the rapidly rising population caused by technical and medical advances of the last 200 years.

In the end the results will be beneficial, until a time maybe 3 or 4 centuries from now, when there will be a problem of a too small population and society will adjust again. How? I have absolutely no idea, who knows what life in 300 years will be like/ But adjust they will.

growstuff

Whitewavemark2

Blimey the message - immigrants seems to be getting through.

High immigration levels generally means economic growth.

Ah! But they might not have the right colour skin tone.

Being concerned about levels of immigration and being racist are two entirely different things.

M0nica

I thnk a falling population is just what the world wants and needs. Ideally world population should fall to only a couple of billion.

In the mid 1300s, the black death swept Europe, killing a third of the population, a half in some places, it returned less extensively at regular intervals for the next 100 years. The effect it had on the population was nothing but positive. It drove wages up for the survivors, led to innovationin agriculture, poorer lands were returned to pasture.

Why would it be any different today. It is said that 'the past is a different coubtry, they do things differently there', well the future is a different place they will do it differently there as well.

The wolrd is over populated in the long term it is in everyone's interest that it should fall.

The human race is too smart, we have the technical ability to conquered any plague or pandemic with very limited losses.

That why the population has grown to 9 billion, the only real risk now is warfare, migration will accelerate in the liberal western democracies.

M0nica Your post at 22.34 yesterday is absolutely correct.

Golly Snowbelle- lower echelons?!

Well I remember plenty. All my chums had two or three siblings.

I thnk a falling population is just what the world wants and needs. Ideally world population should fall to only a couple of billion.

In the mid 1300s, the black death swept Europe, killing a third of the population, a half in some places, it returned less extensively at regular intervals for the next 100 years. The effect it had on the population was nothing but positive. It drove wages up for the survivors, led to innovationin agriculture, poorer lands were returned to pasture.

Why would it be any different today. It is said that 'the past is a different coubtry, they do things differently there', well the future is a different place they will do it differently there as well.

The wolrd is over populated in the long term it is in everyone's interest that it should fall.

Fertility treatment
Do you think we Gransnetters are too old to qualify, a few years or more past the menopause?

No Don't worry. Fertility treatment (free to those coincidentally with housing needs), generates (thanks NHS) many multiple births that wouldn't otherwise happen. In addition and in conjunction, the lower echelons are busy having babies to assist with their unemployment claim and housing needs. ie 2 girl babies and benefits = 2 bedroom newbuild. 2 girl babies plus 1 boy baby = 3 bedroom newbuild gratis. if the couple separate, = 3 bedroom newbuild for the 2 girls and 1 boy + 3 bedroom newbuild for the other parent (separate claim). But actually all in one house and the other house used for "vegatation growth".

If you go out during the day in your car, you will be in a long line of other traffic, If the train is delayed you won't find a seat on the next train,

I wouldn't worry.

This is real.

TBH Warehouses like the Amazon ones will be increasingly automated in the future, which will mean there's less of a need to have people to work in shops. We've already seen high street banks replaced by AI. One way or another, the need for real people is going to change and we're going to have to work out how to deal with that. The jobs people will be doing in a hundred years will be different from the ones they do today, just as today's jobs are different from the ones people were doing a hundred years ago.