Badenoch, "leaving the ECHR is a necessary step" to increase deportations. But how will that impact on Good Friday agreement and Northern Ireland and Brexit arrangements?

Hi Sunami I was responding to your 16.16 post:' Immigration and asylum applications aren't the same thing.

Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but surely immigration isn't affected by the ECHR".

My response was to set out my reasons why I am also struggling to make any sense of what she is saying about her Borders plan, i.e we are on the same page.

Perhaps I should give up trying to understand as well!

LemonJam I'm not sure why you addressed me. I gave up trying to make any sense of what she says a long time ago.

Sunami- Bedonoch wants to deport 150,000 "irregular migrants" every year, and AT LEAST 750,000 over 5 year parliament to "stop illegal immigration", her words. She plans to ditch ECHR to help achieve her plan.

Her annual number does exceed the number of annual asylum seekers, so how does she arrive at her £150,000 annual target? It FAR exceeds the numbers of small boats arrivals ((approx 37,000 in 2024, which was more than in 2023 but less than the record high of 45,000 in 2022). Badenoch also refused to say specifically on TV yesterday where she wishes to deport 150,000 TO and stated "I am tired of all these irrelevant questions about where they should go. They will go back to where they should do or another country but they should not be here." She also plans a US ICE style deportation "Removals Force" to "work closely with the British police to conduct regular immigration checks".

Badenoch describes her Borders plan as "a serious and comprehensive new plan to end this crisis". I don't find her plan clear, well thought through, responsible, comprehensive or specific- perhaps others do? She has not even reached the stage of how it will impact on the Good Friday agreement in NI 🤷‍♀️, irresponsible in my view.

sundowngirl

PaynesGrey - However, according to AI the Uk has a higher rate of immigration per capita than EU countries.

I

Immigration and asylum applications aren't the same thing.

Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but surely immigration isn't affected by the ECHR.

Maremia

'Flailing' comes to mind.

👍

It’s come down pretty dramatically in the last year according to the data available sundowngirl, what was your reference year?
blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

PaynesGrey - However, according to AI the Uk has a higher rate of immigration per capita than EU countries.

I

PaynesGrey Mon 06-Oct-25 15:16:50
"Why do some politicians think the UK is a special case over migration? Per capita, the UK receives fewer asylum applications than the European average, ranking 14th out of 28 EU countries plus the UK in 2024.

Only two countries have ever left the ECHR. Russia was expelled in 2022 over its invasion of Ukraine. Greece withdrew in 1967 when it was under military rule and accused of human rights abuses, including torture. It re-joined the ECHR in 1974 once democracy was restored.

46 countries are signatories to the ECHR. Leaving would send a terrible signal to the rest of the world about UK adherence to treaty obligations.

Farage and Badenoch need their heads banging together. The UK cannot just leave the ECHR without repealing the Human Rights Act 1988".

I absolutely agree PaynesGrey. We need those 46 allies in current uncertain times.....

Why do some politicians think the UK is a special case over migration? Per capita, the UK receives fewer asylum applications than the European average, ranking 14th out of 28 EU countries plus the UK in 2024.

Only two countries have ever left the ECHR. Russia was expelled in 2022 over its invasion of Ukraine. Greece withdrew in 1967 when it was under military rule and accused of human rights abuses, including torture. It re-joined the ECHR in 1974 once democracy was restored.

46 countries are signatories to the ECHR. Leaving would send a terrible signal to the rest of the world about UK adherence to treaty obligations.

Farage and Badenoch need their heads banging together. The UK cannot just leave the ECHR without repealing the Human Rights Act 1988.

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/leaving-the-european-convention-on-human-rights/

Can the UK leave the ECHR without the approval of Parliament?

Parliamentary approval would be needed to leave the ECHR. The UK government normally exercises prerogative powers (executive power exercised without parliamentary consent) in the area of foreign affairs to, for example, enter into international treaties and to withdraw from them.

However, following both the legal and political precedent set by the Brexit process, the government is unlikely to be able to use a prerogative power to leave the ECHR (and Council of Europe) without parliamentary approval.

It is now a legal precedent that the government cannot use its prerogative powers in relation to foreign affairs to change domestic law or to ‘frustrate the purpose of any statute, suspend its operation, or remove statutory rights’.

As the Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA) gives effect to ECHR rights within the UK, and a large body of human rights law relies on it, leaving the ECHR without repealing the HRA would have the effect of frustrating the operation of the Act. Parliament would have to pass an Act repealing the HRA, which would also provide parliamentary approval for withdrawal from the ECHR.

As I wrote on another thread, we have been here before with Dominic Raab’s Bill of Rights Bill in 2022. It was meant to replace the HRA. It didn’t get past a First Reading and was abandoned a year later.

www.lawsociety.org.uk/topics/human-rights/human-rights-act-reforms#:~:text=The%20Bill%20of%20Rights%20Bill%20was%20originally%20introduced%20to%20parliament

More here on how leaving the ECHR would breach the GFA:

www.scottishlegal.com/articles/uk-withdrawal-from-echr-would-breach-good-friday-agreement

Casdon, I agree- collective updating/rewriting is a good idea. Coming out and doing it ourselves will take a huge amount of time/focus/energy/cross party agreement (oh so easy!), I suspect it wont be done/agreed for a very long time.

Certain EU states most likely have an appetite to collectively update. Badenoch continues to contradict herself, today in a single speech and demonstrates her ability to plan to fail/fail to plan approach. She's not doing herself or her party many favours.

I think that the ECHR will be rewritten before the Tories are in power again, the consensus seems to be that it does need it after 70 years. I don’t think Badenoch’s will be the Tory leader by the next election either, obviously I may be wrong but I’m not taking much notice of what she says.

'Flailing' comes to mind.