Burnham was open when he declared he wanted to stand for MP selection in the Gorton and Denton bye election but he was blocked. His ambition has not changed. This should not be a surprise to anyone. What has changed since then is the weaker position Starmer faces, as played out over the past few weeks. Plus Starmer upset many Labour back benchers, unhappy to be whipped for last weeks vote. Poor May election results may anyway, regardless of Burnham, lead to questions about Starmer's position to continue as PM.
What the L party and the country does not need right now is a repeat of Conservative years of successive leadership votes, opposing factions and in-fighting. That decimated the Conservative Party at the last election and since. That Burnham would seek to get his ducks in a row should that happen should be no surprise to anyone.
His plan is different to an overt leadership vote however- seeking to avoid that. Labour MPs have all been milling around Westminster over the past few weeks, reading the dire negative headlines against Starmer, wondering what all this will mean for their seats, for the party, the country and wondering who might replace Starmer if May elections are dire and there is a vote of no confidence. It is reported, that Burnham currently has over 100 MPs in support of his plan, ie to avoid a leadership vote. That is 20 more than the 80 votes required to call for a leadership vote in the first place.
Will Starmer prioritise himself and his own ambitions, ruthlessly doing everything he can to hold on to the PM role, even if he risks loosing an overt leadership vote in the process which could come from Rayner or Streeting? Will Starmer continue to block, at every turn, Burnham’s efforts to become an MP? This may back fire on him and risk pushing Burnham’s supporters to a no confidence vote in itself. It is reported that there is a viable replacement lined up to take Burnham’s place as GM Mayor- which Starmer gave as his sole reason why he opposed Burnham standing for G and D bye election.
Burnham’s plan seems to involve Starmer becoming Foreign Secretary later this year- doing what he does best- would that satisfy Starmer? Would Starmer go along with such a plan to avoid factions, party infighting and a vote of confidence against him in the meantime?
There is no doubt that Burnham’s public approval ratings FAR outweigh those of Starmer, Raynor and Streeting. Hence why many back benchers may support Burnham’s plan on the basis, not only that it may be good for the country, may avoid a vote of no confidence against Starmer and also provide Labour with its best chance to win the next GE.
I look forward to reading the detail of Burnham’s plans after the May elections and see whether it gains any traction or fizzles out. The right wing press won’t like it of course- or other party leaders if it comes to fruition. They would far rather see a vote of confidence against Starmer, factions and in fighting. If that is avoided and Burnham is successful he would be a bigger foe for them to compete against at the next GE.