Makerfield By Election

I hope he wins and I hope he becomes our PM. But then I neither like or respect Starmer any longer.

He won't become PM- unless it is in three years time.
The processes are not in place.
If he does then he will be subject to the same vitriol as Starmer- why can't people understand that?

Galaxy

They want to be able to afford a home, a car and a holiday ( none of them high end) after working 40 hours a week. That's the 'radical change' they would like. It is slightly more complex as it isn't just about money, but that is a key part of it.

aka the 1960s and 1970s.

As I think I said on another thread, the jostling for position doesn't surprise or upset me. The people concerned are ambitious and want to lead, and opportunities to do so don't come up often.

Whether Burnham's attempt will pay off remains to be seen. It is giving the people of the constituency a chance to get the change the country voted for - and to keep out Reform - potentially for the country as a whole. Previous results won't matter if they decide to grasp the nettle - it's much bigger deal than a normal election, and they know that even if he doesn't become PM, Burnham would be an excellent local MP. They may not choose to grasp the nettle though, in which case, God help us all.

I don't think Starmer deserves this - to my way of thinking he has been thwarted by the constant sniping and undermining that he's had since taking office. But that will be the way politics works from now on, so politicians will have to find ways to deal with it. The truth is that he has lost the confidence of the public, and whether that is fair or not, and whoever is orchestrating the campaign, that means he probably has to go, and give someone else a chance to turn things round.

Wyllow3

Rarely, I disagree with you, WWM.

I think you are painting/fearing "worst outcomes" to a certain extent.

I think doom mongering is the apt phrase.

keepingquiet

He won't become PM- unless it is in three years time.
The processes are not in place.
If he does then he will be subject to the same vitriol as Starmer- why can't people understand that?

I fully understand that. This is not a simple case of public dislike, is it? There are forces at work pushing the soundbites and feeding the dislike.

The hope is that Burnham will be wise to it, and can deal with it better than Starmer has. Quite honestly, if he can't (and there is currently no way of knowing if he'll be able to) we may as well all give up and resign ourselves to what happens next. I fear for future generations.

No, it isn’t a done deal simply by Simons giving up his seat and triggering a by-election, but it’s the necessary way to try and become an MP in order to challenge Starmer.
This strategy may fail but has to be tried.

The Greens should not field a candidate - it's important Reform are defeated.

Starmer is not standing up to his party, he is continuing to do what has brought this shambles about: refusing to listen, particularly to the electorate., and refusing to answer questions. He needs to remove his cloth ears.

Cut the welfare bill, increase defence, curb immigration,do not flirt with rejoining the EU and concentrate on stabilising this country's economy. Oh, and ban protest marches.

I don't know the answer to the present situation. The PM needs to go before he does more damage but the present Labour alternatives are just as bad. No suitable, competent candidate has presented yet.
A bleak future.

Oreo

No, it isn’t a done deal simply by Simons giving up his seat and triggering a by-election, but it’s the necessary way to try and become an MP in order to challenge Starmer.
This strategy may fail but has to be tried.

I disagree because the stakes are too high and the LP fall for it everytime.
Reform (mostly ex-Tories and with money to buy votes ) has as been evidenced, have contributed to this manouevering and it is working for them.
If Starmer goes it will be the worst thing we could do to the country- evidence by what happened when Cameron walked away.
Keeping Starmer in will frustrate the far-right and they will have to resort to even more dodgy dealings.
This isn't about individuals, it should be about strong and secure government and the security of our democracy.

What is Josh Simmons getting out of this deal? .. Only elected 2years ago, did anyone ask those that voted for him? As my money is on Burnham loosing this seat to Reform.

keepingquiet
You seriously think that Reform and their voters are all ex Tories?
Would it surprise you to know that many are ex Labour voters?
Our democracy is safe enough, it’s democracy to have a by-election.

Visgir1

What is Josh Simmons getting out of this deal? .. Only elected 2years ago, did anyone ask those that voted for him? As my money is on Burnham loosing this seat to Reform.

If he loses he loses.
There are others waiting in the wings.

Cut the welfare bill, increase defence, curb immigration,do not flirt with rejoining the EU and concentrate on stabilising this country's economy. Oh, and ban protest marches.

So Burnham must do all that with a Socialist Government!

The current political zeitgeist is to the right so this will not happen which is why people are turning to Reform.

Labour in its present form is finished and seems only to have appeal to intellectual Socialists.

keepingquiet

Oreo

No, it isn’t a done deal simply by Simons giving up his seat and triggering a by-election, but it’s the necessary way to try and become an MP in order to challenge Starmer.
This strategy may fail but has to be tried.

I disagree because the stakes are too high and the LP fall for it everytime.
Reform (mostly ex-Tories and with money to buy votes ) has as been evidenced, have contributed to this manouevering and it is working for them.
If Starmer goes it will be the worst thing we could do to the country- evidence by what happened when Cameron walked away.
Keeping Starmer in will frustrate the far-right and they will have to resort to even more dodgy dealings.
This isn't about individuals, it should be about strong and secure government and the security of our democracy.

How does Cameron walking away evidence anything happening now?

He realised his folly in starting Brexit, and was too cowardly to stay and deal with the result. The times and circumstances were very different.

I don't agree that our democracy is safe though. Much depends on how this all ends up, and that won't happen at the election.

Visgir1

What is Josh Simmons getting out of this deal? .. Only elected 2years ago, did anyone ask those that voted for him? As my money is on Burnham loosing this seat to Reform.

Interesting question. He's a confirmed Starmerite. He was formerly a policy advisor to Corbyn and then director of Labour Together, a think tank with right-wing Labour views, which was responsible for propelling Starmer towards the leadership.

He has been accused of leaks and a smear campaign against journalists. I'm not sure I find him that trustworthy.

I don't think Burnham will win the seat either, so is this some kind of set up?

Oreo

keepingquiet
You seriously think that Reform and their voters are all ex Tories?
Would it surprise you to know that many are ex Labour voters?
Our democracy is safe enough, it’s democracy to have a by-election.

I didn't say they all were. I only know one ex-Labour councillor that went to Reform- apart from another Reform MP who went from Labour to the Tories and then to Reform.

My now all Reform councillors, whilst maybe not previously members of the Tory party, are certainly involved in local businesses and on-line content creators etc who clearly have fingers in lots of financial pies in my area. To me this makes them Tories in all but name.

I did wonder that twaddle as Simons would, on paper as it were, be more in support of Wes Streeting .

Galaxy

They want to be able to afford a home, a car and a holiday ( none of them high end) after working 40 hours a week. That's the 'radical change' they would like. It is slightly more complex as it isn't just about money, but that is a key part of it.

Unfortunately that has never been achieved, councils used to be the go to for homes and holidays for those who couldn’t afford them any other way, but it seems that society has moved on from wanting that safety net.

Oreo

keepingquiet
You seriously think that Reform and their voters are all ex Tories?
Would it surprise you to know that many are ex Labour voters?
Our democracy is safe enough, it’s democracy to have a by-election.

No-one is denying that former Labour voters have gone to Reform. It doesn't surprise me in the least. I'm just saying that the underlying cause is the same.

AI analysis of the latest IPSOS polling says this

The clearest breakdown comes from recent Ipsos polling:

Around 37–39% of 2024 Conservative voters now say they would vote Reform UK.
Around 12–13% of 2024 Labour voters now say they would vote Reform UK

It also says that on recent polling the swings look like this

Main destinationBiggest source
Reform UKEx-Conservative voters
Green PartyEx-Labour voters
Liberal DemocratsModerate ex-Conservative + tactical anti-Tory voters

(sorry, Gnet doesn't do tables very well)

eazybee's post is an example of the issues Reform are exploiting to win voters, even though their underlying policies will do nothing to mitigate them.

Oreo

keepingquiet
You seriously think that Reform and their voters are all ex Tories?
Would it surprise you to know that many are ex Labour voters?
Our democracy is safe enough, it’s democracy to have a by-election.

Here is who they are.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/13/who-votes-for-reform-and-why-charts-that-show-who-supports-farage-party

Galaxy

They want to be able to afford a home, a car and a holiday ( none of them high end) after working 40 hours a week. That's the 'radical change' they would like. It is slightly more complex as it isn't just about money, but that is a key part of it.

That's the 'radical change' that won't come about unless a government does something radical about changing its economic direction and enabling a more equable distribution of money.

Like in the '60s and '70s. as fancythat says, in it seemed to me, a tone that implied that this was a Bad Thing.

Boz

Cut the welfare bill, increase defence, curb immigration,do not flirt with rejoining the EU and concentrate on stabilising this country's economy. Oh, and ban protest marches.

So Burnham must do all that with a Socialist Government!

The current political zeitgeist is to the right so this will not happen which is why people are turning to Reform.

Labour in its present form is finished and seems only to have appeal to intellectual Socialists.

I broadly agree with you.

I do think even Labour voters, now want to increase spending on defence.

Why the Country seems to have lurched to the right, I am unsure.
I think it is more a case of, they dont like Labour nor conservatives.
I suppose it is the illegal immigration that has caused the quite sysmic[sp] change.

Oh I thought it was a nostalgic tone.

Graphite

When I mentioned radical change I was thinking more along the lines of renationalising the sectors that have been privatised including water and social care so we aren’t paying through the nose for others to get rich.

I agree we need a major change in taxation and to start taxing the very wealthy. If the rich threaten to move abroad … bye, bye and take Farage and his flying monkeys with you.

The PM I really want is Zohran Mamdani.

That is one aspect of it, yes. But it all relates to the way that the economy is run. Renationalisation would prevent more money flowing to the wealthy in the form of dividends and make it available for reinvestment to improve the infrastructure.

I'm interested to know just how Mamdani reduced the New York deficit Hopefully not by austerity...