Has Reform peaked?

Fallingstar

And I must add the media has no moral compass period. So they will big up a populist leader like Farage to increase their readership. Once people start to lose interest in Farage due to dodgy deals he is dropped like the proverbial hot potato.

I think it's media led, rather than media following. After all, there was no real interest in Farage's dodgy dealings, which have been reported by not RW journalists, until the Sunday Times article was published.

Kandinsky

I agree MaizieD
Reform voters really couldn’t care less who ‘stops the boats’ and gets tough on illegal migrants. Andy Burnham or Andy Pandy - couldn’t care less, as long as it’s done.

I don't think Burnham has said enough about 'the boats' to attract hard core Reform supporters. The ones who have shifted are more interested in potential improvements to their lives than they are in migrants.

Kandinsky

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

🙄

MT62

Kandinsky

Well, we’ve got a new PM now who is going to make everything better and wonderful. No need for anyone else.

🙄

No PM over the centuries have made everything better and wonderful of any party 🤷‍♀️

Each party has their chosen priorities and we will see how Burham achieves against his plans over the next three years.

I'm hopeful and feel absolutely confident he will do a better job than Farage or Reform UK could ever do, with less damage.

I think Reform has plateaued, it will be interesting to see the turn out for the Clacton election. I heard the list of potential candidates is 3 foot long!

Also be interesting to see if those MP's who switched sides remain MP's after the next Election.

Reform struggling to secure headlines and press attention during its current woes that dod not focus on financial so as to deflect from questions about finances. But this topic misses what is already being done and achieved. Also is not persuading the public like this time last year?

Yusuf has said this morning Reform UK will jail directors of companies employing illegal workers for up to five years. Yusuf says executives of companies which employ illegal workers will face up to five years in prison. A Reform government will also impose “crippling financial consequences” on firms – 10% of their global turnover, he says.

Yusuf says: “Corporate CEOs have been making a fortune by hiring illegal workers and undermining British youngsters.Reform will jail them and stop illegal working for good - we will stand up for British workers. Under Reform UK, Britain will no longer be a soft touch. We will establish the toughest penalties anywhere in the world to end illegal working and stand up for British workers.

Which CEOs have actually been making a fortune hiring illegal workers he didn’t name any?

I wonder if Yusuf is aware of how the Labour government has successfully already scaled up immigration enforcement raids and arrests in the past 2 years? The government has secured record levels of raids and arrests while closing legal loopholes that previously exempted casual and gig-economy employers from right-to-work checks. Same enforcement services what will Reform change? It's not global companies that are failing to carry out employment checks! So apart from a threat of jail ( not going to happen if said company had processes in place for employment screening and CEO relied on HR to carry out such checks). It's not large companies that are employing illegal workers anyway!

Enforcement and Raids
Surge in operations: Immigration enforcement activity reached record highs, with a substantial year-on-year increase in enforcement raids (up over 70%) and a sharp surge in illegal-working arrests.

Targeted industries Authorities have focused proactive operations on high-risk sectors prone to undocumented labor, such as hospitality, car washes, construction, and delivery services.

Closing Gig-Economy Loopholes
Mandatory checks: Legislation advanced through the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration measures legally requires gig economy and platform-based companies (such as courier networks, food delivery, and private hire sectors) to carry out right-to-work checks for the first time.

Subcontractor accountability The rules extend compliance duties to cover casual, temporary, and self-employed individual subcontractors working on behalf of a business, removing exemptions previously exploited by rogue firms.

Penalties and Sanctions
Severe fines: Enforced civil penalties reach up to £45,000 per illegal worker for a first-time breach and up to £60,000 for repeat offences.

Corporate disruption Unscrupulous employers already face severe administrative and criminal sanctions, including forced business closures, sponsor licence revocations, director disqualifications, and prison sentences of up to five years for responsible parties.

Reform needs to get their act together to survive. AB needs to make sure his party are responding to such statements from Reform, on this and others matters, shouting out what it is already achieving.








I too think Reform has peaked and are now on a downward trajectory.

Of course Farage will be voted in again in Clacton but, whichever way you look at it, he will have lost. “I won against a bin” is hardly winning is it!

That said, I love Count Binface! He’d get my vote all day long🗑️🚮👏

Yes. 🤣.

I don't understand why Farage gets so much airtime! His latest 'policy' using the Royal Navy to return illegal immigrants to France has so many plot holes a child could see through it. Yet, it features on prime time news again and again as if it were really a serious and feasible plan!

LemonJam

I also don't think Reform UK will survive in the medium to long term without Farage- although it will try.

Badenoch has said the defected Conservative MPs would not be allowed back. Jenrick will do whatever he can to become Reform leader- but of a sinking ship. There is no real alternative other than Rupert Lowe (as a result of huge injection of funding from Musk) but I cant see him securing the same level of public support as Farage previously achieved.

Reform is Farage to most people, as the other leading members barely figure. Without Farage, Reform will probably fizzle out. You're probably right about Restore Britain, Rupert Lowe isn't in the same league as Farage for promoting himself and the party will remain a right wing fringe party.
I think in recent months Kemi Badenoch has become a much stronger figure and has ruled out any deals with Reform to get into power, as possibly Farage could force a merger and destroy her party. She has been savvy enough to see through Farage and has spoken out against him several times.

Not sure about that, all these people landing in Ceuta, maybe a wake up call for people to vote them in.

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

I’m still, in general, avoiding the news but blow me, flicked on Sky News and there was Reform talking about immigration yet again. Why do they get so much coverage?

Susieq62

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

Me too, very odd situation, people wandering across dressed in shorts and tshirts, no luggage, no bags, perfectly cheerful it was all some kind of stunt.

Susieq62

MT62
You do realise that the Cueta issue was set up don’t you? Must people have no idea where it is! Strange how Zia Yusuf was there so soon . I smell big rats at the expense of cheap lives .

Really! I can’t see that one, tbh!

I was allowed for Reform after years of voting for the Tories and having suffered at the hands of previous Labour governments in the past. However I began to think that the Tories could be saved under the improving Kemi Badenoch - until her recent faux pas involving the selection of an ex neo-Nazi. Her first and only poor judgement the kind of which did for Starmer and let in the equally dithering Burnham. Can no one save the country?

I heard it was all set up online by ‘goodness knows who’. Just terrible that all those people died for nothing.

orly

I was allowed for Reform after years of voting for the Tories and having suffered at the hands of previous Labour governments in the past. However I began to think that the Tories could be saved under the improving Kemi Badenoch - until her recent faux pas involving the selection of an ex neo-Nazi. Her first and only poor judgement the kind of which did for Starmer and let in the equally dithering Burnham. Can no one save the country?

I really like Kemi. I will be voting Tory under her leadership

Now Farage is/was an MP he is going to have to comply with regulations and that will be his undoing. His unique selling point has been ditching red tape. I don't think reform will last long after his undoing, which is imminent I hope.
What I don't get about Polanski/Greens is how they can have a leader who does not want to be an MP. He could have stood in Makerfield where he has links to Manchester so I'm told, but he didn't.
I'm sticking with supporting Labour, I don't really mind who is in charge as they always support the NHS and services for those without large resources.

Possibly.
Have to wait and see how Burnham and his cronies shape up and have I give away and to offer.

Seem to be just nibbling at the edges

Uk voters are by and large a moderate breed. We tend to dislike extreme politics and their parties only ever seem to come to the fore as a protest when the main parties become very unpopular as they did in recent years. As Labour (at the moment) begins to rise in popularity so the extremes are almost bound to lose support.

So long as Farage can persuade voters that immigration is the biggest problem facing the country he will go on winning, esp in areas with many older voters and close to the south coast.
So yes he’ll win in Clacton - prob on a very low turnout - but I hope that Reform is now holed below the water line.

My guess re Jenrick is that he’ll jump ship from Reform and lie low for a bit. Kemi Badenoch has an excellent press office but stumbles without it as this week showed.

winterwhite

So long as Farage can persuade voters that immigration is the biggest problem facing the country he will go on winning, esp in areas with many older voters and close to the south coast.
So yes he’ll win in Clacton - prob on a very low turnout - but I hope that Reform is now holed below the water line.

My guess re Jenrick is that he’ll jump ship from Reform and lie low for a bit. Kemi Badenoch has an excellent press office but stumbles without it as this week showed.

Shouldn’t be a problem given that the news media continue to give Reform so much coverage even though they only have a handful of MP’s….

The tone of media that is turning against Farage though is telling - even right wing Sunday Times. This is evidently influencing peoples views shown by Reform's falling poll ratings and Nigel Farage's falling personal poll ratings.

Reform made 2 announcements this week- Operation Fortress and then this morning's proposal to jail CEOs for employing illegal immigrants. Neither are workable. Plus in context that Labour has reduced slow boats and irregular immigration numbers over the past 2 years- plus has successfully increased and targeted employment of illegal immigrants rather takes the wind out of Reform's bombastic sails.

It's impossible for Reform stop losing support and momentum over the next 3 years if this week's 2 announcements are all that it has to offer the electorate. Unless they start to announce more credible announcements Reform will have no chance in winning the next GE.