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There is a recent election result that tells a story of Conservative decline along with a series of decisions that confirm that, when it comes to both strategy and judgment, Badenoch is lacking.
Start with the Get Manchester Mayoral contest from a week ago. For many, the standout fact of the byelection to replace Andy Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester was that Reform came a very poor second, taking just 21% of the vote to Labour’s 47%. A crushing defeat for Nigel Farage’s party, which a matter of weeks earlier had talked up its chances of winning the mayoralty.
But run your finger further down the vote tally until it finally reaches the Conservative candidate on a mere 7.7%. In all the previous mayoral contests in Greater Manchester, the Tories were in second place. This time they were fifth behind Restore Britain a party of the hard right. A Tory result that bad among such a large electorate of 3 million people suggests not merely that Badenoch is making slow progress, but that she is moving her party backwards.
Her strategic response to this competition on the right has been to move towards her rivals, hoping to blunt the appeal of the nationalist populist parties by matching their offer . The latest step came late on Thursday with, as the Telegraph billed it, a Tory “promise to end council housing for foreigners”. Badenoch’s pledge is to evict almost 230,000 non-EU foreign national households from their homes.
Never mind that many of those turfed out will include people who have been living, working and paying taxes in Britain for years. Once evicted, those families, including their children, will be rendered homeless, leaving local councils with the choice of either abandoning them to the streets or providing much costlier emergency accommodation. Consider the timing.
Badenoch decided the right moment to demand foreigners be kicked out of their homes was as the Norfolk town of Thetford entered its third night of violence and disorder, triggered by a mob surrounding the accommodation of suspected asylum seekers, some in the crowd trying to force their way in, as others threw rocks and chanted: “We want them out.” Into this tinderbox of a situation walked the Conservative party leader, clutching a petrol can.
Just a day or two earlier, she had been defending the selection as a Somerset council candidate of Joshua Bonehill-Paine, a man who has served long jail sentences for, among other things, a sustained campaign of antisemitic harassment and abuse of the Jewish former MP Luciana Berger, a campaign that saw Berger branded an “evil money-grabber”, her face superimposed on the body of a rat and photographs of her doctored into multiple, sexualised images. He has offered no apology to Berger. Badenoch herself conceded that Bonehill-Paine would not have cleared the threshold to become an MP but serving as a councillor was different, she explained, as he would be responsible for nothing more than “parking and bins” – thereby, and at a stroke, insulting the many thousands of Conservatives who devote themselves to public service in their local communities. She then appoints him to a national party advisor role.
Badenoch surely must realise she can’t outperform Reform- so what should she do instead to stop her party’s decline
Towards the end of Starmer's tenure she was gaining in the polls. She had gained in confidence, her humour was appealing to many and she interviewed well. However I think it has panicked her that AB is now in situ, as his was a populist vote and will require different tactics to influence voters. Her poor judgement of late may indicate her apprehension with the change in PM.
I thought she was starting to improve and to show her strengths, but then she made those ill judged errors about
Joshua Bonehill Paine and trying to our Reform reform. I think she needs to think more carefully before she comes out with a plan.
I am not a Conservative supporter, but I do know a lot of people who are, and although not initially not keen on her (and I have to say, not one of them has ever suggested this was because of her 'race'), many of them were becoming increasingly impressed by her. Even I felt that she had started to grow into the role and become less 'sneery'.
However, it is just as easy to reverse that support with a single ill-judged comment, and I very much doubt that trying to "outperform Reform" will do her any favours in the long run.
Burnham’s popularity outstrips Badenoch’s by 10% points
I think the Tories are tainted because of the last 14 years, with the mismanagement, and nothing to with their latest leader.
Labour have, so far, been worse than useless, so I guess votes will be scattered across a lot of parties.
The Conservatives have 14 years of misrule to apologise for, as Labour never, ever ceases to remind everyone. But there is only so much mea culpa that is believed, and people are beginning to question when the much-vaunted improvements will arrive. Even Labour supporters are asking, what are you doing about it?
Starmer found to his great astonishment that being PM was rather more difficult than he anticipated; had it been that easy the Tories would have done it. Burnham, who believes his own publicity is discovering his faux charm won't solve the migrant housing problem, the burgeoning welfare state, or pay the Defence Budget. And he knows he has a bunch of conspirators at his back who have tasted blood once and are quite prepared to strike again.
Kemi Badenoch is making slow but steady progress, working out how to actually pay for changes rather than relying on other people's earned wealth. She is identifying the main concerns in this country without having to go on a self-promotional tour, and she is prepared to be unpopular if she has to make hard decisions, unlike Burnham.
With hindsight, Rishi Sunak wasn't a bad PM. Inflation fell from 11% to 2%, he reduced the tax burden on most people and the economy was starting to grow again. Sadly he had to deal with the fall out from Truss and Johnson. People might judge Rishi better in years to come.
I think Kemi is starting to become a better leader and isn't like Farage, making stupid comments to keep his fan club happy.
I think Kemi is great and she's slowly turning the tide on anti-Conservative views as she comes out with fully considered policies rather than soundbites and ridiculous kneejerk comments from the other parties. She'll have my vote.
I would like to see the Conservatives get better. I don't believe Badenoch is the right person to do that.
Johnson ruined them completely during his time as PM and it will take someone better than KB to get them firmly back on track.
As a former Tory voter I won't be voting for them again until they get someone who thinks before speaking.
She may not be truly British in the full sense of the word, but she has a lot going for her. She's intelligent, articulate and not afraid to say what she thinks.
The Conservatives lost their identity for a while and became more like Liberals. I think they are now realising their mistake and getting back on track.
I think they have a good chance of winning the next election and hopefully will stop the rot.
Of course Conservative will vote for Kemi. They don't worried about colour of the skin, religion, male or female either.
I have no doubt they will rise again.
I agree Oreo. The Labour party has had many competent women overlooked.
I also agree that Liz Truss doesn't count.
I'm amazed that the ethnicity of anyone could be seen as a matter of any interest
I was impressed with Rishi Sunak, because he seemed a competent, compassionate, intelligent Prime Minister. His racial origins were none of my business.
I can’t count Liz Truss really as her tenure was so short!
I’m embarrassed that the LP has never had a woman to lead it or any person of colour.The Conservatives have had two female PM’s and Rishi Sunak.
I can't believe you think that way Silvershadow. Personally, I don't care about the colour, ethnicity or religion of our PM. I'd much preferred Rishi Sunak to Boris for example. Unfortunately he inherited the poison challice created by his predecessor.
Casdon
LemonJam
You're suggesting that Conservative voters shifted their vote to Restore because the Reform candidate was tainted? Could be.
I’m suggesting that some people who were intending to vote Reform but were put off by the revelations about the Reform candidate, and swayed by the opportunism of Restore, due to that, voted for Restore. I don’t think there has been an analysis of whether they were previously Tory voters or not, but given that the majority of Reform voters previously voted Tory, some of them must have been.
I think you’re right Casdon
It would have been very tempting for Badenoch to form an alliance with Reform to save her party, but she's savvy enough to know Farage would probably force a merger and then purge the new party of people he considered too liberal. She's done very well to avoid this and has been very critical of Farage in recent weeks, and the Tories poll ratings are starting to improve. If Reform implodes, it's likely the main beneficiary will be Badenoch.
I actually considered her to be useless and negative and destined to be yer another shortlived leader, but she is coming across as a lot stronger now and her party isn't such a joke as it was 12 months ago. If the Tories come up with some decent policies, she might be worth a look next time.
I have been quite impressed by Badenoch and her political journey, she’s def grown into her role as Leader of the Conservative Party.Why wouldn’t Conservative voters vote for her? After all she was chosen by Conservative members in the first place as their preferred choice.
I wonder if a British Mayor would be chosen, or go down well in a city in Pakistan? Interesting thought isn’t it.
sundowngirl
Silvershadow - If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.
What a silly statement! - In that case we could say if we wanted a Pakistani mayor we'd go and live in Pakistan
Well… am sure a lot of people do think that.
LemonJam
You're suggesting that Conservative voters shifted their vote to Restore because the Reform candidate was tainted? Could be.
I’m suggesting that some people who were intending to vote Reform but were put off by the revelations about the Reform candidate, and swayed by the opportunism of Restore, due to that, voted for Restore. I don’t think there has been an analysis of whether they were previously Tory voters or not, but given that the majority of Reform voters previously voted Tory, some of them must have been.
M0nica
Silvershadow
She will never be prime minister because Conservative voters will not vote for her. As others have said on another thread she is Nigerian. If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.
There is much more choice than before. The days of Labour or Conservative are over. There’s Reform, Restore, the Lib Dem’s, the Greens.
They will never recover. It’s over.Why do you object to a British person of Nigerian descent and not object to Prime Ministers of Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Indian descent?
I have reported your post as racist.
👍🏽
Silvershadow
She will never be prime minister because Conservative voters will not vote for her. As others have said on another thread she is Nigerian. If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.
There is much more choice than before. The days of Labour or Conservative are over. There’s Reform, Restore, the Lib Dem’s, the Greens.
They will never recover. It’s over.
Why do you object to a British person of Nigerian descent and not object to Prime Ministers of Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Indian descent?
I have reported your post as racist.
Silvershadow - If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.
What a silly statement! - In that case we could say if we wanted a Pakistani mayor we'd go and live in Pakistan
You're suggesting that Conservative voters shifted their vote to Restore because the Reform candidate was tainted? Could be.
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