Tommy Robinson conviction leaves far right with leadership void. Will Farage and Lowe compete to recruit Robinson’s far right support base during his likely jail term?

While Robinson, now convicted, will learn his sentence fate on 16 December, there are now wider implications for Britain’s far right. If he goes to jail again, the far right will be deprived of its most effective and – arguably – most charismatic leader, with little or no apparent replacement. The obvious heir apparent is anti-migrant activist Daniel Thomas, AKA Danny Tommo, the leader of the Patriot Platform movement, is also in custody ahead of a trial over the alleged slashing of a dinghy in the Channel.

One figure reported (Guardian) to be looking over his shoulder at Robinson, however, is Farage. The Reform UK leader responded with sarcasm when asked about the conviction, and he has clearly changed his party’s policy on permitting members who support Robinson and Reform members embracing the narrative that he has become a martyr.
Meanwhile, Robinson faces up to 10 years in prison, in the worst case, although sentencing guidelines provide a wide range of flexibility to Mr Justice Cavanagh, who will first consider culpability.

A specialist criminal law barrister said that at least two “high culpability” factors could be considered. Robinson telling journalists he was coming to get them could amount to “conduct intended to maximise fear or distress”, while hiring an investigator suggested a “high degree of planning and/or sophisticated offence. In terms of harm, I suspect it will be seen in the most serious category, particularly as at least one victim moved house as a result,” the barrister said. “When it comes to the type of sentence, Robinson’s problems are that his track record of previous offences raises questions about the prospect of rehabilitation. There is also a lack of strong personal mitigation and he presents an ongoing risk, namely to journalists who say something he disagrees with. “The judge might decide that, given the current prison overcrowding crisis, a suspended sentence will suffice. If it’s suspended for the full three years in line with guidelines, it could well have a greater impact on reining in his behaviour.”