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Science/nature/environment

Here be dragons (maybe)

(13 Posts)
Elegran Mon 16-Oct-23 19:33:17

I came across this on Facebook (see, it does have some common-sense things on it, as well as a lot of fantasising drivel)

"Imagine that, despite none of the tests being successful, you wish to be scrupulously open-minded. So you don't outright reject the notion that there's a fire-breathing dragon in my garage. You merely put it on hold. Present evidence is strongly against it, but if a new body of data emerge you're prepared to examine it and see if it convinces you. Surely it's unfair of me to be offended at not being believed; or to criticize you for being stodgy and unimaginative — merely because you rendered the Scottish verdict of "not proved."

Imagine that things had gone otherwise. The dragon is invisible, all right, but footprints are being made in the flour as you watch. Your infrared detector reads off scale. The spray paint reveals a jagged crest bobbing in the air before you. No matter how skeptical you might have been about the existence of dragons —to say nothing about invisible ones —you must now acknowledge that there's something here, and that in a preliminary way it's consistent with an invisible, fire breathing dragon.

Now another scenario: Suppose it's not just me. Suppose that several people of your acquaintance, including people who you're pretty sure don't know each other, all tell you they have dragons in their garages — but in every case the evidence is maddeningly elusive. All of us admit we're disturbed at being gripped by so odd a conviction so ill supported by the physical evidence. None of us is a lunatic. We speculate about what it would mean if invisible dragons were really hiding out in garages all over the world, with us humans just catching on. I'd rather it not be true, I tell you. But maybe all those ancient European and Chinese myths about dragons weren't myths at all. . .

Gratifyingly, some dragon-size footprints in the flour are now reported. But they're never made when a skeptic is looking. An alternative explanation presents itself: On close examination it seems clear that the footprints could have been faked. Another dragon enthusiast shows up with a burnt finger and attributes it to a rare physical manifestation of the dragon's fiery breath. But again, other possibilities exist. We understand that there are other ways to burn fingers besides the breath of invisible dragons. Such "evidence" —no matter how important the dragon advocates consider it—is far from compelling. Once again, the only sensible approach is tentatively to reject the dragon hypothesis, to be open to future physical data, and to wonder what the cause might be that so many apparently sane and sober people share the same strange delusion."
-The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark – by Carl Sagan and Ann Druyan, 1997" (Seen on www.facebook.com/TheUniverseofCarl )

ElaineI Mon 16-Oct-23 20:32:16

Sounds like a book my DGS would love (or one of his stories) 🐉

Blossoming Mon 16-Oct-23 21:21:26

I have this book, it’s wonderful. Carl Sagan is the writer of one of my favourite quotes about our planet. Just a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam

Elegran Tue 17-Oct-23 09:37:05

Update - I have now bought this book on Audible and look forward to listening to it. It sounds excellent.

I may well follow it with another of Carl Sagan's books too - "The Dragons of Eden, Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence" but I'll finish this one first!

biglouis Tue 17-Oct-23 09:45:48

My garage is so full of antiques there would only be room for very tiny dragons so they will have to compete with the spiders for space.

Urmstongran Tue 17-Oct-23 10:27:30

I have little or no imagination. I’m a bit rubbish to be honest at suspending disbelief. It’s why I avoid sci-fi and such like. I become irritated by made up gobbledegook to describe unfamiliar objects! So not for me I’m afraid. (Definitely no dragons in MY mind 🤣). Like your quote though Blossoming. I’ve cut & pasted it to share with friends. 😊

JackyB Tue 17-Oct-23 10:47:43

It seems to start in medias res . I've no idea what the tests mentioned in the first paragraph were and was completely lost from then on in.

Callistemon21 Tue 17-Oct-23 10:52:30

We used to watch his TV series, I think it was called Csmos, quite fascinating.

Of course we have a dragon in the garage, we live in Wales!
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Callistemon21 Tue 17-Oct-23 10:52:45

Cosmos!

toscalily Tue 17-Oct-23 11:21:04

Rather similar to the Lock Ness monster, is it there or isn't it there, I want it to be there, no it can't be there, not possible, hang on a minute stranger things have happened. Or, is it like the imaginary friend, real to me, not to you? Monsters of the id or friendly companion?

Elegran Tue 17-Oct-23 19:36:39

It doesn't matter exactly what the tests were, JackyB - they were just "all the tests", and they didn't prove that "the dragon in the garage" (or whatever strange thing someone was claiming) was true, so he postpones believing it.

However, if definite evidence should appear in the future, the writer will be open to reconsidering. The point he is making is that "Once again, the only sensible approach is tentatively to reject the dragon hypothesis, to be open to future physical data, and to wonder what the cause might be that so many apparently sane and sober people share the same strange delusion."

That is science - and it seems to me, Urmstongran, that Carl Sagan is exactly a writer who WOULD appeal to you. He doesn't go in for fantasies - in fact he has written more than one book with his theories on just WHY so many human beings are inclined to believe in strange things.

M0nica Tue 17-Oct-23 21:50:03

I read a book a long time ago, I can remember neither title not author that revealed the subterfuge behind a whole series of incredibly convincing para normal and other events. It left me deeply sceptical about 'Dragons in garages' and it would take more than the levels of physical evidence given by OP to undermine my disbelief. I would be looking for concrete eveidence that I was not looking at the results of human ingenuity, or as we would call it 'magic'

Which brings me to an associated subject. I have recently been rereading some of John Buchan's books, written roughly between 1910-1940 and noting how many of them, mostly thrillers of the chase variety, ow often the baddies are some vague international organisation led by a man, or once, a woman, who has quite exceptional skills in disguise, hypnotism or enormous intelligence. They are very much 'ripping yarns', but I cannot but see the similarity between these organisations and the real beliefs in real life now, in hidden international organisations led by Bill Gates or George Soros or the 'Illuminati' and the whole mix of modern conspiracy theories.

Even among those of us who do not buy into these theories, can still happily suspend belief when presented with it in a book.

Which brings us round and back to Carl Sagan and how much evidence of the improbable it takes to convince us.

Elegran Wed 18-Oct-23 08:20:34

Indeed, the more you know of the possible ways that we can be cheated into believing what has been fabriated, the less likely you are to be conned. That is what I took out of the excerpt that I quoted. The scientist in Carl Sagan would not be persuaded to believe in the dragon in the garage without better quality of evidence than the "footprints in the flour" or the finger reported to have been burnt by the dragon's fiery breath that he was imagining.

With the advent of Photoshop, artificial intelligence and CGI, plus the speed with which anyone at all can send their "personal experiences" and altered images round the globe by the internet, fantasies can now become universal memes and overtake reality.

There is more need than ever for the application of cold logic, but less of it about. People seem on average to be getting more and more credulous, and less and less able to distinguish between genuine facts and fictionalised wishful thinking.