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Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

(85 Posts)
Eloethan Sat 28-Mar-20 18:39:15

That's interesting. Just shows how figures can be misleading.

Baggs Sat 28-Mar-20 18:37:58

The Times says today that Britian is on course to get to about 5,700 deaths in all. This is much much much lower than the quarter of a million that was feared not so long ago.

Baggs Sat 28-Mar-20 18:34:06

Germany is using a different way of counting. As I understand it, if someone who has an underlying health issue dies when they've also been infected with covid19, then the underlying health issue is given as cause of death, not covid. In Britain if someone infected with covid dies, covid is given as cause of death even if they also have underlying health issues which will have contributed to their death too. This is why Germany's numbers are lower.

Elegran Sat 28-Mar-20 18:11:20

A bit of my post was missing. It should have said "So far there have been 1,019 in the UK out of that 29,951. Therefore our final figure will probably be about one thirtieth of the total final world figure"

Elegran Sat 28-Mar-20 18:06:28

Greymar I think Eglantine was looking at the same report I was.

Elegran Sat 28-Mar-20 18:05:00

52bright I am reading right now that world deaths so far are 29,951 www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ not that the possible final figure could be 29,000. so far there have been 1,019.

There have been various estimates of the possible number of deaths in the UK. It seems it could be somewhere between 4,700 and whatever number you care to think of. ANY number is too many, but below 20,000 would be a proportion of the final world total which matches our population as a proportion of the world's population. We are NOT in for a worse death rate than the rest of the world.

Greymar Sat 28-Mar-20 18:04:41

How do you know this please Eg?

Eglantine21 Sat 28-Mar-20 18:01:23

Because 29000 is only the start. You probably need to add at least another two noughts to that.

MrsEggy Sat 28-Mar-20 17:58:11

The death rates for seasonal flu are about 17,000 in a bad year, but that doesn't get the publicity, and like this virus it is usually the old and vulnerable who die. Harsh, but true.

52bright Sat 28-Mar-20 17:29:09

Good evening all. We need all the positive posts we can get in these difficult times so first an apology because this is not really a positive thread. My question though is this. Why in tonight's bulletin were we we told that it would be a good outcome for the uk if death figures for Coronavirus were kept below 20000. The whole world's death rate on the world update site is approx. 29000 so why are we as one relatively small area of the world projecting a death rate of 20000. Maybe this is managing expectations, giving us a worst case scenario number of death cases so that if it rises to say 15000 we will consider that our government has done well. The death rate in Germany is far lower per million of population than here. They say this is because of more organised testing which means those who display no symtoms but who have the disease are quickly isolated. I have no idea but 20000 projected deaths here when the world amount at the moment is about 29000 seems very frightening. Stay in and keep safe everyone flowers