Gransnet forums


Statistics, where are they?

(18 Posts)
Classic Sun 10-Jan-21 12:29:42

Every day for nearly a year I have listened to how many people have come down with or tested positive to Covid 19, along with the amount of people who have died, and now the added number of vaccinated people, so my question, how many / what percentage of our population has had it, has died of it or are now vaccinated against it? What is our population in total? At what point can we say more people have had it than are left to get it? We hear about cities where one in ten have it this week, but over the months what percentage have already built up immunity? This virus will burn out, as all diseases do when there are more people over it than left to get it.

Alegrias1 Sun 10-Jan-21 12:33:31

Long way to go before we get to burn-out.

cornishpatsy Sun 10-Jan-21 13:03:25

I rely on the gov site.

On another subject, Classic why does your name show up in blue and when clicked your profile is shown.

I haven't seen any other names in blue.

Alegrias1 Sun 10-Jan-21 13:09:40

The government site is the go-to place for stats cornishpatsy, definitely. I like Tabby because he presents the same stats in a really understandable way.

Classic Sun 10-Jan-21 13:16:32

I have looked at the gov site every week, but it doesn't (that I have found) supply the information on an overall basis, or totals, its main emphasis seems to be on a seven day basis. Don't know why my name appears in Blue, my post was highlighted in red and I clicked on the apostrophe to see if that gave more information, I might have 'reported' my post accidentally whilst trying to find out how it all works.

EllanVannin Sun 10-Jan-21 13:22:14

Being as few or none of them were born before 1950 I go by my own commonsense on the matter.
The saying " don't tell your granny how to suck eggs " springs to mind.

I worked on a pandemic ward back in 1957.

Alegrias1 Sun 10-Jan-21 13:24:22

Its all here, Classic, on the menu on the left.

Just over 3 million people have had it out of a population of 68 million, so about 4.5%
Approx 80,000 have died according to the 28 day measure so that’s about 0.12% of the population
The Travelling Tabby websites have all the government data presented in lots of useful ways, I’d recommend them.

Alegrias1 Sun 10-Jan-21 13:26:25

Forgot about vaccinations, that's under healthcare. We've vaccinated 1.2 million people, about 2% of the population.

Greenfinch Sun 10-Jan-21 13:27:53

Many of us used to have our names in blue and have
visible profiles but most of us withdrew when we realised our anonymity could not be assured and our details were being spread far and wide.

annodomini Sun 10-Jan-21 13:30:46

A long time ago, we could all 'blue' our names if we wanted/allowed our profiles to be public. As I say, it's a long time since this was discontinued, so it's a puzzle as to how Classic's name is blue and her profile public.

annodomini Sun 10-Jan-21 13:31:35

Greenfinch posts X'd!

Elegran Sun 10-Jan-21 14:27:23

Which apostrophe, Classic ? I can't find one in your post or in the title.

NotSpaghetti Sun 10-Jan-21 15:21:09

I go here for statistics:

WOODMOUSE49 Sun 10-Jan-21 15:31:55

Your name Classic has a link to lots of information about you.
If you haven't done this report it to admin. I've never come across that before.

Callistemon Sun 10-Jan-21 15:55:19!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

Hope the above links help, Classic

I think you can go to My Gransnet at the foot of the page and remove your profile if you wish to.

Callistemon Sun 10-Jan-21 16:51:05

how many / what percentage of our population has had it
We may never know the answer to that.

over the months what percentage have already built up immunity?
See above and we don't yet know how long immunity will last anyway.

Manaus, in Brazil, thought they may have reached a point of 'herd immunity' in September but there has been another outbreak resulting in a state of emergency being declared.

Puzzled Sun 10-Jan-21 17:42:46

Yes there is a major problem with the pandemic, but does anyone REALLY know how bad it is?
The lack of analysis of the figure concerns me too.
"50,00 infections today"
How many tests carried out 50,000? 500,000? Makes a big difference to percentage. Could be 100% or 10% infections.
Not that we want even 10%
79,000 deaths are extremely sad, but still represent less than a sixth of 1% of the total population of UK.
Also, the tests throw up false positives. The greater the number of tests carried out, for the same percentage, the greater number of false positives, so the figures become more inflated as the number of tests
Are the "Positive without symptoms" real, or false positives?

Having worked for a lot of my working life in Quality,am surprised that no one seems to analysing the figures, or admitting to so doing.
Not confidence building is it?
You think that I'm sceptical? Very happy to be booked for a jab next week

Alegrias1 Sun 10-Jan-21 19:27:41

how many / what percentage of our population has had it
We may never know the answer to that.

That's a very good point Call

Puzzled, in answer to your questions, I think this is the most analysed set of data in history grin.

The number of tests carried out is reported every weekday. Nearly 604,000 on Friday for 60,000 positives, so about 10%. WHO recommends that a pandemic "under control" should have a positivity rate of 5% or less.

I've found people don't really have a grip on the impact of the pandemic in terms of number. A survey in Scotland a little while ago had some people who thought 10% of the population had died. That would be 500,000 people in Scotland alone.

The Travelling Tabby sites have lots of metrics, I'm a bit addicted, I think. The Scottish Government were publishing a lot of detailed analysis for each Local Authority up until we went into lockdown again. The link for the most recent is at the end of this post. Can't speak for rUK, I haven't been tracking that, but I'm sure someone somewhere has been doing the same thing.

Don't know much about false positives, but I guess the important thing to be aware of is trends, so the proportion of false positives will be steady and we'll see how the overall total of positives varies as time goes on.