How safe is this 'bubble'

Very good odds indeed grannyrebel7 especially as at its height the risk was one in 40 !

Who do we bubble with ?
We have a daughter who is single, works from home and only out for walks on her own or with her sister, BIL or a friend keeping social distance. We are very close and in normal circumstances spend quite a lot of time together.
Also have Mother in Law. Lives on her own. Has not been out but has friends and family calling and chatting in the garden. She seems to have assumed that she is in a bubble with DH and I.
Whichever I decide I’ll feel guilty but to be honest, I would far rather have Dd at my home or hers. Lots of fun, lots of talk about thing we both enjoy.
No real problems with MIL but not any great connection.
DH says as neither of them are out and about where there are any particular risks, we could have both( not at the same time).

Any thoughts to help me along we using my own feelings?

I heard yesterday that you now have a 1 in 1,700 chance of catching the virus. Seems like pretty good odds to me. Last week it was 1 in 1000. How they work all this out I don't know and can we trust it? I do think that if you're outside with people the risk in minimal though.

We aren’t allowed to bubble in Wales. YET. When we do I’m going to get my ancient aunt to stay with us for a while. Although she has excellent neighbours, she is 88 and lives alone. I might tell her to start packing. Thank goodness she also lives in Wales. If it was England we might not be allowed back in .

I thought I’d bubble with my nearest daughter so I can look after my granddaughter sometimes. She’s alone most of every day while her parents are WFH and her brother is back at school. She’s 8 and has had no home schooling at all since lockdown began.
My daughter says no, because the child at school is in contact with other children, who are in contact with their families, who are in contact with work colleagues etc etc.

It’s up to all of us to assess the risk according to our own personal circumstances and act accordingly isn’t it?

The government can’t be expected to spell out every minute detail as they would certainly then be accused of creating a nanny state!

Of course the safety of the bubble matters. My friend’s daughter is in charge of a Covid ward. As a vulnerable person herself, my friend won’t be taking up the chance of going into her house any time soon, much as she misses her. Neither of them want to take the risk.

Absolutely everyone I know is distrustful of the government advise.

Not surprising really.

The track and trace is really problematic though, and without that virus control is really difficult.

jane was your post directed at me? I assume so.

It's a start anyway

It is not really about the safety of the bubble, we have to start mixing again. It is more about containing the virus via track and trace if someone in your bubble catches it.

That's new cases btw

Covid tracker estimates 4900 cases which is down 47% from last week. Did you forget to add that part?

I live alone, so can 'bubble' with one of my sons now. But I still feel very wary. So we've decided that they will have a barbecue in their back garden next week (when the weather improves again) and I shall join them for that. I still don't feel that I should actually go into their house, but the garden should be ok shouldn't it, if we maintain our distance.

Just some information from Kings College.

More up to date and accurate imo than what you get from the government.

Yesterday 4900 new cases

176890 confirmed cases in U.K.

Overall average R is between up to 1% with a few pockets between 1-2%

There were enough people on beaches the other week to fill a cathedral let alone a funeral ceremony in a small area.

Sorry Maw I thought it would be obvious. Obviously not.
Second wave isn't coming. Remember the crowds at Easter? We're weeks on from that now and infections reducing all the time.
BTW if IKEA can open with social distancing why can't more people be allowed to attend funerals?

Thank you for your replies, they are much appreciated. I can see this situation having adverse effects on couples with differing opinions on this. Just to clarify, he is a volunteer driver taking clients to their hospital appointments. He is not allowed to enter the hospital at the current time, and wears mask and gloves at all times. He also sanitises his car door handles and seats between clients. His clients have to sit on the back seat, not directly behind him, but behind the front passenger seat. He is doing everything possible from a safety point of view, and maybe I am over-reacting. I think I will settle for giving him a cuppa indoors, separate sofas, still 2 metres apart!

A bit of light relief there Maw ?

6-8 Jane10 - really?
That is terrifying. Did you mean 0.6-0.8?

As Patrick Vallance said, it's all a matter of managing risk. The scientists are concerned with the disease risk but the govt has to balance disease, economic and social, and other health risks. We have to work out our own risk I suppose.
R in Scotland is between 6-8 apparently.

Everyone given the opportunity to join a “bubble” will be in this position, having to weigh up their own individual risk and act accordingly. For many, the risk of infection will be outweighed by the effects of isolation on their physical or mental wellbeing. Others may decide they simply feel safer keeping their distance for now. As your post demonstrates, there are going to be difficult decisions to be made, but only you can know what’s right for you. I hope it works out well for you both whatever you decide to do.

It’s not for anyone that is shielding in any case!

This new measure is not saying things will be any safer for single households to mix with another single household (although as long as you are both sensible things should be better as the R number is reducing) but is being done for the mental well being of those living alone who’s lives have become intolerable due to loneliness.
If you and your partner are happy enough to continue living rather solitary lives then that’s dine, stay as you are.It’s not a command or law that you have to mix in that way.

Ventegegall - I'm with you, your bubble doesn't sound safe. I'd keep the 2 metres from anyone who works in a hospital, school, nursery, supermarket, indeed anywhere where they're coming into contact with lots of people in an enclosed space.

I realise Im more cautious because of the being over 70 and shielding bit. I do take risks I suppose because I've continued to walk my dogs since I locked myself down on 13 March 2020. I haven't hugged a loved one (except Mr i) since then. We saw our four year old grandson over the fence again yesterday - could weep for the loss of his special hugs but he's becoming an expert blower of kisses.

Being pessimistic in all this I'm waiting for this so-called " bubble " to burst, scattering the virus again. I wouldn't say I was overjoyed about the suddenness of coming together. It only takes one to carry the infection while showing no sign themselves.

I'd certainly be wary of a hospital worker Vintagegall.