Are you intending to see your family this Christmas come what may, or if there are restrictions will you abide by them ?

MOnica where did you see the R rate 1 or lower please?

Try looking at our local senior nurse at the Hospice aged 40 who died in the first wave of covid.
I've been breathless since a chest infection in August. My GP now wonders if the negative covid test I had then was inaccurate and I'm experiencing long covid.
Look at the Welsh family who lost three generations to covid aged 40 - 80 recently
Our hospitals in Manchester have today cancelled ops because of the numbers of covid inpatients. Two days ago, our ambulance service issued an emergency notice, they were overwhelmed

Oh that’s okay then maddyone, the over 81s are expendable obviously.
Try looking at how many over 50s, and over 60s are hospitalised, and how many people of all ages have long Covid. The statisticians all have different views, but very few indeed share your rosy view of the death rate if the virus isn’t stringently controlled.
Of course children’s futures are important, I don’t think anybody in their right mind would doubt that, but trying to trade one thing against the other is an amazingly naive view, in fact it’s immoral.

Better than paying for it now with their lives
The average age of a person who dies from Covid is 82 and a half. Life expectancy in this country is 81. Puts things into perspective somewhat doesn’t it!

Maybe you’d rather people starved rather than be paid furlough
No, I wouldn’t! But I would prefer that my three year old grandson wouldn’t have to pay for this until his retirement so that older people, who can take steps to protect themselves, can live into their dotage.

My family will follow guidelines and play our part in bringing the infection rate back down to a manageable number for the NHS to cope.
If we don’t the reality that could affect any of us - if not Covid - will be patients waiting on long lists for life saving treatments and important operations and procedures.
Hospitals have limited beds, equipment and staff.

Indeed the NHS needs extra capacity in the form of staff, but has spent all summer knowing this and done nothing about it. The Serco Test and Trace isn't up to scratch, yet we have spent billions of pounds on it, and about to throw more at a private company instead of the NHS and local councils managing it.

It is such a shame that so many people take the figures as Gospel and are terrified witless. I suspect that even when all this has subsided, and it will, to be just another illness we live with, that they will still hide away in their homes, continue to wear a mask when they do venture out, refuse to hug their friends or resume their social activities.

To get your risk in proportion, this is the calculator used by researchers to assess the risk of someone with 'pre-existing conditions' needing hospital treatment for Covid. It has used data from over 8 million patients. I think you could be surprised!

qcovid.org/Home/AcademicLicence?licencedUrl=%2FPatientInformation%2FPatientInformationPlease check for yourselves what your risk actually is.

MOnica, yes we do make daily assessments of the risk posed to us but we all have a body of knowledge about safe road crossing, safe diving, smoking, over eating, alcohol use. We know much less about this virus as its early days.
In the first lock down, we wiped down shopping, changed and washed clothes if we ventured out. None of that now but I don't go into supermarkets, if everyone followed the guidance I'd feel less worried about shopping. Not everyone does. All it takes is some selfish idiot to sneeze all over the place and the virus is spreading. I've assessed that risk and ruled it out, for me. Sadly, my grandchildren are ruled out as well because they're in school and nursery and their parents working. Their risk is lower than mine so they can live their lives more fully than I can.

Growstuff post 15.28

That is exactly what I mean : how can Boris have us all under these restrictions and then "let us all out " for a few days to celebrate Christmas and then put us all under restrictions again. Simply no point.
Perhaps the Christmas fairy will wave her wand at the virus and change it into a pumpkin for a couple of days.
My plans are already in order and this year I will be at home and have dinner and only see son and his wife who I have a bubble with.

Surely this is the point, if the statistics are wrong and they are grossly over-estimating the possible number of future deaths, which we know they are and R is already down to 1 and below. Is the lockdown necessary?

Unless we all lockdown until the last case of COVID in this country is eliminated there must always be at some time a trade off between deaths and economic recovery.

We all make these kinds of decisions on a daily basis without batting an eyelid: crossing the road, driving a car, putting our socks on, being overweight, smoking, drinking.

maddyone

There’s a lot of information now emerging about ....government scientists who knowingly publish erroneous statistics about COVID in order to frighten us.

This is very worrying, in particular because it’s caused the furlough scheme to be extended until next March, costing another 150 billion. I think it’s time the government looked further than Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty who predicted that we could have 4000 deaths a day if the country didn’t go into a second lockdown. Apparently infections were levelling out already with Tier Three restrictions, but headlong we go, into another lockdown and further trashing of the economy. Our grandchildren will be paying for this for the rest of their lives.

Better than paying for it now with their lives.

Maybe you'd rather people starved than be paid furlough.

I shall DAY AS IM TELT! At Christmas I’ll protect myself, my family and others it won’t be such a hardship considering we can meet in a restaurant up to six at any one time.

3nanny6

I do hope their is some relaxation to restrictions by 24th December and after all Boris has promised that people will be celebrating Christmas. I have heard that perhaps their will be 2 or 3 days when people can see family but then go back to some restrictions. I do not think much of that and if we are still having to have restrictions then why come out of them for a few days that does not make sense to me.
I will continue to wear face covering social distance wash hands and not go into anyones home and follow all safety guidance, I can still have some decorations and a tree and a nice dinner it is only for the day so I would rather be safe what anyone else does is up to them.

Do you think anybody will remember to tell the virus to have a couple of days off?

B9exchange

I am not convinced by the SAGE data, wouldn't it be wonderful if we actually got the leading scientists from both sides together for a meaningful debate to which the public could ask questions?

For example, why has Belarus such a low infection rate despite the population having been out on the streets protesting en masse for months?

I would like to see published the excess suicide, dementia, heart attacks, strokes and cancer deaths compared with last year.

What would you do even if you saw the figures? Do you suggest abandoning Covid patients to treat the others? The NHS needs extra capacity to cope.

I do hope their is some relaxation to restrictions by 24th December and after all Boris has promised that people will be celebrating Christmas. I have heard that perhaps their will be 2 or 3 days when people can see family but then go back to some restrictions. I do not think much of that and if we are still having to have restrictions then why come out of them for a few days that does not make sense to me.
I will continue to wear face covering social distance wash hands and not go into anyones home and follow all safety guidance, I can still have some decorations and a tree and a nice dinner it is only for the day so I would rather be safe what anyone else does is up to them.

I am not convinced by the SAGE data, wouldn't it be wonderful if we actually got the leading scientists from both sides together for a meaningful debate to which the public could ask questions?

For example, why has Belarus such a low infection rate despite the population having been out on the streets protesting en masse for months?

I would like to see published the excess suicide, dementia, heart attacks, strokes and cancer deaths compared with last year.

The only people we ever see over Christmas anyway are DD and GC. We have been in a support bubble since the first lockdown due to childcare and her having to move out of her park home.

I am almost certain we will be alone. My main family are in London and mix quite a bit with others. So I have not seen them all this year. Even if the rules were relaxed, I think it would be risky for us to meet them.

For husbands family, we are closer and all in Tier 1, so would possibly meet in a pub if allowed by then.

Indeed, Lyndylou.

Yes Ellianne that is a worry. But there are other worries that I am weighing up, such as the fact that my son's other half is presently spending every day in the house with a colicy baby. I have tried to help as much as possible but it has been impossible for me to visit since the latest lock down. I think a Christmas Day out at our house would be good for her. But as I say, we will make a firm decision nearer the time.

Oh, and no I wouldn't break any rules or guidelines. As some wit said early on 'just because they've eased the restrictions it doesn't mean that the virus has gone away, it just means they have room for you in intensive care.'

It's obvious that whatever the rules are over the Christmas period if we a pop over to our nearest and dearest en mass there will be a rise in infections in January. I think that I will be leaving presents at the door and waving.

ExD

We'll stick to the rules.
Anyone with an ounce of sense knows that if everyone had stuck to the 'no parties/crowds' rule earlier we wouldn't be in this pickle now.
But then, there's always been someone who has spoiled things for the rest of us.

I agree with that ExD.

I'd like to share a quote I read yesterday.

We are not in the same boat.......but we are all in the same storm.

My only concern Lyndylou is this asymptomatic issue. On the whole our 6 people are pretty healthy, and if one of them ever gets ill it usually comes on fast. I'm not saying that that 7 day window will guarantee our 6 no covid, but it is the closest plan I can come up so far.

If the schools break up on December 17th that gives a full week before Christmas itself. If the children remain at home during that week and if the parents do not work, then could we possibly be in a pretty safe situation? It will take careful planning but I am willing to give it a try.

Absolutely Ellianne That is how I feel about it. My DD is keeping DGS in for that week and my OH and I are also staying in. In theory as she is a single parent family we could be in a bubble any way but we would really love to have my DS his OH and my new DGS round for one day over Christmas as well. So we are going to stay as isolated as possible for that week prior to Christmas, then DS and us can look at the current situation and make a decision nearer the time. If it would make him feel safer, we could even have the day together nearer to New Year so we have been isolated for longer.

maddyone
That's the problem now. Boris decided who he was going to listen to and who he wouldn't.
He's backed himself into a corner with no exit.
Can you imagine the uproar if he brought in scientists with a different approach?