Seems we are not unlocking.

Oh, I like a challenge.

Average number of admissions to hospital in England per week in 2018, 204,000

We need to keep things in perspective.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45783005

Maybee70, Actually 1,000 a day, given what has gone before, and if it does not go higher is not 'pretty bad', It is pretty good.

How do these numbers compare with those being admitted each day for a host of other illnesses from flu to cancer to heart disease and strokes?

I think we are beginning to suffer from communal PTSD, the first two waves of COVID were so bad and the figures for new cases and deaths went so high that every time we hear that the number of cases has gone from a small number to a very slightly higher number we react as if figures had gone up in thousands and deaths by several hundred.

Maybe people are just getting a bit immune to it all. 1,000 is still pretty bad.

A 1000 hospital admissions at the peak of the omcoming COVID wave? It was 10,000 or so in the peaks of waves 1 and 2.

We have also been told that those being hospitalised are younger, less sick and stays are shorter and ventilation is needed much less frequently.

Lets keep this 'third wave' in perspective.

Whitewavemark2 have done hotels last August and this May they are pretty good (obviously depending on the Hotel)
The biggest problem is getting a booking some are pretty full
We are off to Jersey early July rates there are very low but restrictions on entry quite tight
If both jabs are effective as they say they are I have no worries getting out and about

growstuff

sandelf

Had been looking forward to a more relaxed summer, so I'm a bit down about this. In college in 1969 doing stats I learnt it is the direction of change you must pay attention to - the direction changed weeks ago and we did not change anything. The politicians are guilty. The 'experts' really, really do know this, but they can't just stalk off.

Kate Bingham was interviewed at the end of 2020 and said then that she didn't think that we'd be "back to normal" by this summer, but she was hopeful that people would be able to book holidays by 2022. Her caution then was dismissed as being negative, but it seems she was right. Let's hope she's right about 2022 too.

Oh I do hope so. I’m the worlds biggest pessimist but even I didn’t think it would be as bad as this .

sandelf

Had been looking forward to a more relaxed summer, so I'm a bit down about this. In college in 1969 doing stats I learnt it is the direction of change you must pay attention to - the direction changed weeks ago and we did not change anything. The politicians are guilty. The 'experts' really, really do know this, but they can't just stalk off.

Kate Bingham was interviewed at the end of 2020 and said then that she didn't think that we'd be "back to normal" by this summer, but she was hopeful that people would be able to book holidays by 2022. Her caution then was dismissed as being negative, but it seems she was right. Let's hope she's right about 2022 too.

JaneJudge

I have just googled thinking how does growstuff recognise people there? and up pops Laurence Fox

Oh! I didn't spot Fox yesterday. I just recognised two faces from previous anti-lockdown marches/rallies. I expect somebody knows their names.

People seem to be of the opinion that Johnson was inebriated at yesterday’s presser.

It would help to explain a lot.

Had been looking forward to a more relaxed summer, so I'm a bit down about this. In college in 1969 doing stats I learnt it is the direction of change you must pay attention to - the direction changed weeks ago and we did not change anything. The politicians are guilty. The 'experts' really, really do know this, but they can't just stalk off.

I have just googled thinking how does growstuff recognise people there? and up pops Laurence Fox

I’ve just got this from the BBC news website article about the delay in reopening.

‘It comes as a scientific adviser warned there could be a return to hundreds of deaths a day.
Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that numbers of deaths are low at present, but "everyone expects that they will rise".
"The question is really as to what level they will rise," he said.
"It is possible we could end up with a situation whereby the numbers of people going to hospital, really mean that the government have to take some kind of action that they don't want to."
But he added that the government has taken action that it didn't want to throughout the pandemic.’
The same article is predicting that there could be up to 1000 hospital admissions a day at the peak.

GrannyGravy13

Oops sorry posted prematurely…

It’s either safe to gather or it’s not?

My interpretation of it is that decisions are being made on political/PR grounds. The problem is that some react like children and say "Well, if they can do it, so can I".

Whitewavemark2

Did anyone see the protesters in London? Nothing wrong with protesting of course but-

Blimey they way they they went after BBC’s Nick Watt was so chilling.

This behaviour is simply dreadful.

I agree. I saw the video and recognised some of the people involved. The police did nothing.

There's a fine line between the right to free speech and bullying, where those who shout loudest are the winners.

It's concerning when journalists are harassed like that, just for doing their job. I guess GB News was set up for people like that, which is ironic because it seems that they are very far from being overlooked.

GrannyGravy13

Capacity crowds are going to be allowed at Wimbledon finals, increase in crowd numbers at Wembley for the football.

Whilst I am happy for those lucky enough to have tickets I am struggling with the logic behind these decisions.

So am I.

I think frankly that the scientists, whilst keen to protect the NHS from over capacity or too much pressure are probably if the opinion, that it is time that the population began to use its common sense and decide on its own risk assessment.

So that’s how I’m going to proceed now.

Trying at the moment to decide whether hotels in July will be risky.

Not easy imo

Oops sorry posted prematurely…

It’s either safe to gather or it’s not?

Capacity crowds are going to be allowed at Wimbledon finals, increase in crowd numbers at Wembley for the football.

Whilst I am happy for those lucky enough to have tickets I am struggling with the logic behind these decisions.

Today's deaths don't mirror what might be the case next week.

The ONS don't take sides, that's not what I said as you well know. But the absolute number of deaths isn't the issue, its the trend and the strain that puts on the NHS.

Here's an interesting graph.

Alwgrias I took it to be deaths on 13/06 as the header said.

I know that the world and it’s wife are concentrating on deaths with a positive Covid test within 28 days at the moment.

I posted the pie chart in order to put that figure in perspective of all the deaths by other causes.

I would be surprised if ONS took sides

It says 13 June quite clearly.

Is this just the 13th June? What period does it cover? Is there any reference to the rate of change of deaths? How many hospitalisations were involved?

Using random stats to support either side of the argument is not right.

This pie chart by ONS puts Covid deaths into perspective

Casdon

Apparently the Independent is reporting this morning that there could be up to 40,000 further deaths this summer. I hope they are wrong.
www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/lockdown-lifting-delay-will-not-20816347

I had a quick look at the paper presented to SAGE, it was one of 4 presented on that day. The 40,000 comes from the worst case starting assumptions. No idea what the other papers say, I haven't had time to look at them or read the paper in question properly.

The media have a lot to answer for, I think.

We are going into the third wave. This is just the start. We have some mitigations in place but some of the restrictions that have been lifted will leave us open to more deaths than we would have otherwise. This is the balance the government has chosen.

The vaccine is brilliant. The rollout is brilliant. The vaccines are highly effective but the second dose is critical. They are also not 100% effective so a percentage will still get the virus even with two doses. Some will not have had two doses. Mixing increases the chance of becoming ill with the virus. We know all this so should not be surprised there will be another mountain of deaths.

I live about 12/15 miles from a local hotspot. We are now very relaxed about people travelling to our area from that area. It seems sensible to remain careful.