^ ... the greatest risk is not of open warfare. It’s far more likely that infrastructure will be targeted, underwater cables cut, water supplies polluted, drone attacks on power stations, etc. etc.^
Agree with this, but extreme weather conditions is another problem.
Almost everything now is computerised and it really wouldn't take a lot to close almost everything down. In 2024 the GPS systems used by some Canadian farmers were confused by a major geo-magnetic storm, preventing them from planting. The same problem affected the US in 2025. Not a small thing considering the amount of wheat and other grains these countries supply to keep the world fed.
Spain, Morocco and Portugal have suffered major floods over the last couple of years that have devastated many fruit farms. Those same areas are now suffering from drought. A lot of our fresh fruit and veg comes from these areas so supplies will be down and what we get will be expensive.
We have a global pantry now. Over a quarter of British farms have closed down in the last 20 years so we supply less than ever before. Any extended fuel shortages that stop shipping or air freight, or the closing of shipping lanes or flight paths would seriously disrupt our food supplies. It wouldn't take a world war or nuclear catastrophe, just a tantrum in the wrong place at the wrong time and we could all be wishing we'd prepped a bit better.