Tin Ear over Corona Virus and Boris Johnson

But closing schools would lessen the rate of infection considerably Grandad1943 and therefore make it easier to keep society operable. Two parents, or extended family looking after a healthy uninfected child will be much more able to adjust their working times and lives to provide care, whereas parents and possibly grandparents infected by a child who contacted the illness at school will not only be unable to work but unable to provide care as well.

That Twitter thread about international consternation at the UK response:

twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840?s=20

it hasn't been transferred in the above post

And here's an interesting thought, I hope our on-the-ball, scientific government have this one covered:

www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-funerals-to-be-held-under-controlled-conditions-1.4202127

What you think and I think are clearly different POGS, one day we will know who's right but just like the dreaded referendum, we probably never will....meanwhile, here's the latest international opinion with the relevant Twitter thread link buried in it. It appears that the international community think Britain is out on a limb:

The British government strategy of striving to achieve ‘herd immunity - by broadening the peak of the epidemic, and allowing immunity to build up among the population - is beginning to come under greater scrutiny.

Critics including the former health secretary Jeremy Hunt have expressed concern about the decision to delay more drastic measures, such as school closures.

Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the approach, seeking to underline that it is epidemiology that is guiding the decision not to impose more draconian restrictions on the public’s day-to-day lives immediately.

But among others asking questions about the strategy is Anthony Costello, a paediatrician, research scientist and former director of mother, child and adolescent health at WHO.

In this twitter thread, he states that vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself and asks: “Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit”

He also asks if the herd immunity strategy conflicts with WHO Policy, adding: “After the announcement of this being a pandemic, Dr Tedros, Director General WHO, said ‘The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.’”

trisher, in regard to your post @16:47 today, I have certainly not in any way abandoned the concept that closing schools at this point in the epidemic would only in effect protect the teaching staff from serious Covid-19 infection.

whoever cares for those children while this infection is in the community will be at risk, but should it be the parents looking after those children then they will have to take time off from their employment which may well be in an essential industry.

Therefore, keeping each school open for as long as possible will enable those essential industries to remain at their maximum output possible for as long as possible.

Yes, teaching staff in schools will be at risk, but all should at this time work in support of those essential industries for in that Britain will come through this health crisis very much better and quicker.

Teachers and schools very much have an active role to play in the above at this point in this crisis.

That's a very different concept from schools closing to protect teachers as you originally suggested Grandad1943 so I will take it as written that you have abandoned that concept. It would indeed be a problem to keep people at work when schools were closed however I think exactly the same problem will result from keeping them open, except in that case the parent/carer will be ill, infected by their children and will need care themselves. We are one of the few countries in Europe keeping schools open. There is no perfect solution but I believe closing schools would be more effective and cause less long term disruption.

anniezzz09 Fri 13-Mar-20 16:13:56

'This NHS doctor says what's coming will be like a war zone, glad some can be relaxed about it but be prepared also. Even if you don't care about dying, the process sounds pretty awful and how difficult for other family members.'
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Oh dear.

' Don' t care about people dying '!!!!

I don' t think that has been remotely the impression I gleen from reading posts on this thread, nor from watching and listening to the Government up date that started this thread off.

I think in general the tone of the thread shows most posters are pragmatic and even when posters hold different opinions/views they have held back from being overtly personal.

Your comment however is not the general tone of the thread.

trisher, in regard to your post @15:37, you suggest schools should close at this point it the epidemic. Therefore many hundreds of thousands of parents will have to take time off from their employment for the unplanned child care that will be required.

Many of those parents will undoubtedly work in essential industries that all in Britain very much rely on.

So, trisher, while those persons stay at home with their children who may be very well indeed, do they hope and pray that the supermarket shelves will remain full, the lights and water stay on and the sewers stay operational when you pull the flush while those millions sit on their backsides when they are not ill but have it made necessary.

So, do tell us all trisher how you would solve the above.

We have just got to have faith in our baggy eyed and visibly aged prime minister, because he is in charge. I imagine when he yearned to be PM he didn't expect to manage the "worst public health crisis for a generation".

The positive for me is that he is taking his lead from experts. The negatives are that many experts in this, and other countries, do not agree with the our course of action.
Paul Hunter Professor of medicine at UEA, to name one, disagrees. He says I can't see any of these measures are going to have a big impact.......None of that is really going to affect transmission in the UK.
Jeremy Hunt has also broken ranks to disagree.

I have looked at the expected curve graph which is steep with no intervention, and lower and longer with intervention. I can't understand why our policy of no intervention will help a stressed NHS cope. I understand the strategy for herd immunity, but not at the expense of overwhelming our health services.

I guess only time will tell as the outbreak draws to a close, whether our government is right. It may be that there is no best strategy, and it has to run its course.

From what I gather social distancing is the best option at present and please don’t forget far, far more people recover than die. If you go on Worldometer you will see that the figures for recovery are very much higher than the numbers who have succumbed to it.

This NHS doctor says what's coming will be like a war zone, glad some can be relaxed about it but be prepared also. Even if you don't care about dying, the process sounds pretty awful and how difficult for other family members.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-uk-doctor-nhs-hospital-symptoms-italy-china-a9397736.html

Listening to WHO now on sky news and the director general has just stated that travel restrictions do not work and have not worked.

Moving from the ' CONTAIN PHASE to the ' DELAY PHASE' is the government raising the spectre of school closures, restriction of large gatherings. etc. etc.

This could happen any day, even tomorrow who knows.

I am content to listen to and follow the reasoning behind those such as Chris Witty the Chief Scientific Adviser for the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and Professor Patrick Vallance Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA) to the Government.

The above are holders of the facts and figures and when they judge the time is right, they know it is coming, then I will be happy to accept what they say.

The PM is being called a coward, buffoon, Lord knows what but I remain of the opinion I want him to listen to his Advisors and not even try to appease those who are name calling by ignoring them and making a unilateral decision for personal liking , it won't happen and I am sure being popular is the last thing on his mind, I hope so.

Herd immunity does not mean millions dead. Herd immunity is usually built up over time and in many remote and sparsely populated countries the virus will get there and spread slowly.

In the next few months alone, the development of vaccines will advance so that within a year one could be available. Treatments for the virus will improve as doctors build up and exchange their knowledge bases, so death rates will fall.

Winter flu has its toll of fatalities and many other trivial illnesses bring with them death and unhappiness to families. We cannot control when or how we die.

Grandad43. I agree. If we close schools now, they would have to stay closed for months to be effective and grandparents would be the ones to do the childcare (the most vulnerable group). Children away from school would still be out and about spreading the virus.

Calendergirl
Interesting that you should mention that. Wuhan gave out news of this virus on 17th November. How long had it been around before that. The beloved leader knew about it ( officiall ?) on January 7th but didn't publicly acknowledge it
until 2 weeks later.
Even though Wuhan knew they had this virus they hosted a function for 40,000 families.

Grandad1943 just so that the teaching staff of those schools can reduce their likelihood of incurring COVID-19.
The inaccuracy of this statement astonishes me. Are children with the infection unlikely to spread it to anyone else? What about their parents. grandparents and extended family? They are far more likely to be infected because of the close contact. The parents will therefore miss work anyway and the grandparents may be very ill. Of course the children will be OK (or most of them anyway there are children with illnesses who need protection) and most will survive but in doing so they may have killed off their GPs. The idea that only teachers will be protected by closing schools is just ridiculous.

Thank you POGS. Re the 'losing loved ones' comment, I meant that by now this surely goes without saying and was therefore best left unsaid.

And re 'manufacturing', I suppose fabricating would have been a better word but I think the meaning was clear.

Hetty58 put the point well: all governments are trusting to experts - no one is relying on reading the tea leaves here - but different experts are evidently saying contradictory things ,so how can we be sure that our experts are the ones who are right when they seem to be in a small minority.

Also - herd immunity would mean that millions die would die for enough of humanity to recover with any kind of immunity. I don't think that is a risk we should take,

The WHO recommended delay phase is not being followed. We are doing a half arsed job of following the guidelines. Deep down - it would be beneficial for the Government if vast swathes of elderly ans ill people died - tha ti si purely from a statistical and monetary viewpoint - not a human one.

If children have the virus and are asymptomatic or mildly ill they will then recover and stop spreading the virus. This is herd immunity at work. Eventually it will die out if it can’t be passed. As for BJ saying some of us will lose loved ones before their time - he’s being honest. The amount of people, young, old and inbetween, that I’ve spoken to who think it’s all a fuss over nothing is scary. People need to be aware that this is serious and we should all be aware of what we need to do. Not everyone is responsible and socially aware, far from it.

Very interesting Mamie.

POGS, I feel you are "spot on" with your post @14:14 today. From all the evidence placed in the public domain in regard to the effects of this virus, the younger a person is, the more mild the illness will be in most cases when contracted.

Therefore in any risk assessment carried out, the greatest hazard would be in having the children maintained in the schools would not be in infecting each other, but in the consequences of those children infecting the older teaching staff in the school.

However, wherever those children are the infection consequences of the same magnitude is present whoever is looking after those children. The foregoing being a fact, I can see no case for closing schools at this early stage of the epidemic just so that the teaching staff of those schools can reduce their likelihood of incurring COVID-19.

Further to the above, closing schools would undoubtedly create the consequence of parents not being able to attend their employment due to child care requirements. However, those non-attendances may be carried out in essential industries that this nation entirely relies on.

The overall operational running of the country has to be maintained especially in essential industries. All at this time of crisis should be working in support of that, which should very much inclued schools and their staff at this stage of the infection.

POGS 30+ children in a class-therefore 1 child could infect 30 at the same time interacting with others in school, add 3-4 adults and that 1 child has spread it to 50 other people. Child goes home and sees parents and grandparents, now 50+ infected.
Child kept at home less likely to get and spread becuse contact is limited. Safer for everyone.

winter white

'For a start I thought that remark about families 'losing loved ones before their time' was in poor taste and quite unnecessary.'
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It is a fact and the voices who say ' treat us like adults ' will appreciate there is no hiding place when it comes to understanding what is inevitably going to happen. They could hardly ignore the fact there will be an increase in the death rate and should they anyway? It is sadly the reality.
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' It seems plain enough that public health is being balanced against the needs of the economy. This is prob fair enough, but why can't the govt say so instead of insisting that the health of the population is its top priority and manufacturing reasons for not adopting measures in place elsewhere?'

I can honestly say that the economy HAS been repeatedly raised as it is a major issue/problem and I don' t think the government has ' not said so'. The insistence by the government to say ' the health of the population is top priority' is what I would expect our government to say.

I do not think th government is ' manufacturing' reasons for not adopting measures in place elsewhere. By saying ' manufacturing ' what do you mean, can you give an example?