Dr John Campbell

SirChenjin If the rate of increase continues its current trajectory, it will be 20 days before 60% have been infected. It probably won't, because many people have been totally self-isolating for weeks, but I'm not sure what happens once they start going out and about again.

Dr John Campbell said that he thought 9 days before the peak was optimistic. Today's cumulative death statistic shows that the figure is more than doubling every three days. Campbell didn't mention a figure, but if it does only(!) double every three days, it will be 28,840 in nine days. If it carries on for 21 days, which is what he was briefly hinting, the cumulative death figure will be 461,440, which is truly frightening. If the death rate for those infected is 1%, which he also said, that means 46,144,000 will have been infected. At that point "herd immunity" will have been achieved, so hopefully deaths will decrease - at a horrendous price. Those figures are more or less what the Imperial College report came up with when the government changed its strategy to be more pro-active.

The only thing we, as individuals, can do is to try to stay safe.

They said at todays briefing that the tests aren't accurate, but there's surely no getting away from the fact that Germany are testing testing testing and their death rate is far lower than other countries [with the exception of S Korea].

Yes - there was no way we wouldn’t. I’d have preferred to see us more closely aligned with Germany in terms of testing though - we really need to move on that one. Peak death rate in about 9 days which bears out what we’re all preparing for in our Board.

It is quite sobering as you say SirC but it is all going in much the same direction in all the countries. What we really need is to see those that started first start to plateau which would mean if we keep doing what we are doing we should follow and plateau ourselves.

That’s really interesting Blinko. I didn’t get the BCG jag at school because the little skin prick test came up in a big lump which showed I had natural immunity to TB - they thought it was because my mum had TB in the fifties. Fingers crossed this stands me in good stead!

I read that there could be a correlation between people who had the BCG jab and a better prognosis if they get Covid-19. It seems that a number of countries are looking at this.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/fewer-coronavirus-deaths-seen-in-countries-that-mandate-tb-vaccine

Thank you for sharing that. Quite sobering viewing.

Thanks JenniferEccles - me too!

This is today's update

Yes you are right GGM2

I did have the feeling of being in a college lecture and I mean that in a complimentary way!

I am pleased you haven’t had any negative comments about starting this thread!

We won’t get to anywhere near the required 60% though quickly - nor do we want to, for all the reasons which are well known. The exponential figures Dr Campbell quoted in one of those YouTube clips showed just how far off we are globally from that magic 60% and with all the collateral damage getting there will entail. If we take the UK in isolation we’re still nowhere near 60% and we’re doing well to keep it well below it.

Because transmission is exponential, which we are seeing, exposure will happen quickly even with social isolating. The global stage of the epidemic does not affect the UK much because anyone returning for overseas will have arrived in a month, then borders will be closed much tighter, except for freight.

The problem we have at this stage is that most tests are being done on patients that need to be in hospital. Surely if you need to be admitted or need a ventilator you need treatment wether you have C19 or not. So the sample takes no account of mild cases that don’t get tested.

I had a bad cough and serious chest pains, after 2 weeks I phoned the doctor and was told take paracetamol and if I had breathing difficulties call back, obviously I recovered, albeit slowly.

I’m optimistic that within a month it will be a much better out look and many can start work again.

I agree it is reassuring JenniferEccles. I think it's perhaps because he talks as if we are students which, in this instance we are. Students are bright, capable and prepared to understand but don't have a particular knowledge set. That's us! Thank heavens for experts - especially those that teach

This is "London Real interview, Part 2" put up today.

If you didn't go back in the videos this is London Real interview Part 1 from 6 days ago. It worth watching this first although figures have changed over the last six days

What an interesting, informative man with a very calm reassuring manner.

I feel much more optimistic after listening to him, although he does deal with facts and nothing is sugar coated.

I’ve been taking vit D for years now. Not sure I feel any different, but I think that is the point. Staying healthy is the point.

He’s good though isn’t he? That’s because he is on top of his brief and why someone who isn’t appears to waffle and piffle.

Herd immunity requires at least 60% of the population to have antibodies (and unless we’re planning to close borders that means 60% of the global population). There’s no way we’ll get there in 2 or 3 months - nor would we want to as the burden that it would place on the health services, economies and mortuaries in a very short period of time would be devastating.

PS. However, I did find that I have an almost unopened box of high strength Vitamin D tablets, which I bought before I was prescribed them officially.

Labaik I've been having the flu jab for years and I've also had the one-off pneumonia jab. I tried to find out if either protects me, but sadly it appears not.

It’s correct that we are nowhere near herd immunity YET but in maybe a couple of months that could well change. Because there are reports of whole families with mild symptoms, including members with no symptoms, there is a significant level of immunity in the population.

If they can get an antibody test it will help a lot to get a picture of the actual level of exposure. They have used antibody testing for some animal diseases for many years, they are not 100% accurate. If our outbreak follows Spain and Italy there will be a peak in 2 weeks, then we really need that test.

GracesGran, thank you for posting this.

Thanks so much for this link GGMk3 - I’ve shared it with my colleagues. It’s interesting that the fnumbers who might have been infected come nowhere close to the figures required for herd immunity - what on earth was this Govt thinking? Did one of Cummings misfits and weirdos put this forward as a strategy I wonder?

I'd like to know if those that have had the flu and/or pneumonia vaccine have had a better prognosis. I've been meaning to have a pneumonia jab for ages but just didn't get round to it.

Very interesting video! I have question that might make me sound thick ? it’s regarding testing for Covid 19 if you have been home isolating because a family member had symptoms and you haven’t had symptoms so could go back to work after getting tested and it’s negative so you are told you can go back to work what happens if after being in work you then have symptoms my point is testing everyone for it is not really going to stop the spread ....

A very worthwhile watch