Why is UK one of the worst hit?

growstuff As with so many statistics, it all depends on definition. If you include 'commutable' distance, one European source made Paris larger than London (both reckoned at over 12m on that definition in 2017). It is a minefield. All I can do is to try to be consistent.

I agree that principal 'cause of death' can be a matter of debate, even in the mind of a doctor who has to record the information. That is why I would rather focus on TOTAL deaths and why even the difference of a week is crucial, as we have recently seen with our ONS numbers.

I agree that there will be German numbers, probably freely available in Germany. I have asked the question via a personal network which may bear fruit. I have read a German source which says its 'COVID-19' data is not comparable with Italy so another reason to be careful with those comparisons.

If it turns out that Germany has simply dealt with this best, well done them!

Cun have you found this? It seems to be German equivalent of ONS, available in English and German
www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Countries-Regions/International-Statistics/Data-Topic/Population-Labour-Social-Issues/Health/Corona.htmlHas

grosstuff I posted that link on a new thread earlier today.

Not many people seemed interested. Considering I’m sure I read somewhere on this forum that one person, at least, said they would not wish to burden the NHS and would prefer to stay at home no matter the consequences I think people should read our links at least.

Keep an eye on the Robert Koch Institute in Germany, which is responsible for pandemic planning.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany

PS. Germany has just over 900,000 deaths per year, but I haven't found a week by week breakdown for the last month or so. There must be a breakdown somewhere - the Germans count everything!

This article might explain some of the 2500 "non Covid" extra deaths:

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/sharp-rise-in-ill-patients-dying-at-home-since-coronavirus-outbreak

When I had a heart attack, the main symptom was not being able to breath, so I can imagine that Covid would put extra strain on the heart, so the infection would have been a major contributory factor.

PS. Paris is much smaller than London, but does have some very overcrowded areas (les banlieues). Parts of Berlin are the same, as are some of the poorer parts of Hamburg. It might be interesting to look at areas with comprehensive transport systems - I can't help feeling that the tube in London must have been rife with transmission of infection.

Thank you for taking an interest and all these these replies.

Maggiemaybe Yes, I have seen those coronavirus numbers but it was the up-to-date TOTAL deaths I am searching for [that is, deaths from all causes].

suziewoozie and growstuff Yes, I have just discovered the age profile numbers and, as you say, the percentage of the population over 65 in Germany is relatively high. At 21.4%, it is higher than UK, Spain and France although lower than Italy [2018 Eurostat]. The percentage for the over 80 category is 6.2% in Germany, about the same as Spain and France but higher than the UK and again, lower than Italy.

So, so I am gradually learning. I prefer to start at the ground and work up rather than read other people's analysis. I am now thinking about concentration of population as a factor sparked by the 'fact' that 25% of UK 'COVID-19' deaths have arisen in London which accounts for just 13% of the UK population. It needs more work, not least to see if Paris, a city of comparable size to London, similarly accounts for a high proportion of 'COVID-19' deaths in France. Relatively speaking, Germany does not have such a heavily populated city.

In the end, the answer may be multiple factors, some of which we don't know yet, based on clinical data. I am really only looking at the obvious ones.

Another article, making much the same claims:

High levels of testing
Number of ICU beds
Decisive action on social distancing at an early stage.

www.businessinsider.com/why-germany-has-a-low-covid-19-mortality-rate-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

Hmm! Not sure what happened there

An interesting article about the first case of Covid-19 in Germany being transmitted on a saltshaker and how the Bavarian and national authorities have dealt with the outbreak:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/it-was-the-saltshaker-how-germany-meticulously-traced-its-coronavirus-outbreak/

The messages seem to be:

Testing and contact tracing early
Taking it seriously from the start
High levels of ICU beds

Even so, Germany expects that its death rate will eventually be closer to the norm. People dislike restrictions, just as they do in the UK, especially as those in the East remember the Stasi. Nevertheless, Germans tend to be quite law abiding and respectful of community laws. Examples are people who will disapprove if you cross the road when the light is red, disapproval of people who put rubbish in the wrong bin or those who don't clean their windows or wash their curtains.

An interesting article about the first case of Covid-19 in Germany being transmitted on a saltshaker and how the Bavarian and national authorities have dealt with the outbreak:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/it-was-the-saltshaker-how-germany-meticulously-traced-its-coronavirus-outbreak/

The messages seem to be:

Testing and contact tracing early
Taking it seriously from the start
High levels of ICU beds

Even so, Germany expects that its death rate will eventually be closer to the norm. People dislike restrictions, just as they do in the UK, especially as those in the East remember the Stasi. Nevertheless, Germans tend to be quite law abiding and respectful of community laws. Examples are people who will disapprove if you cross the road when the light is red, disapproval of people who put rubbish in the wrong bin or those who don't clean their windows or wash their curtains.

Cunco The birth rate in Germany was way below replacement rate for decades. It increased slightly after reunification because the former East Germany had good childcare facilities and women didn't feel under pressure to have only one child. Generally, better educated women tend to have fewer children and Germany has one of the highest educated populations in the world. The high percentage of old people was one of the main reasons that Merkel allowed so many refugees into Germany. They provided a young, fit workforce.

Life expectancy in Germany is 81.41, which is slightly higher than the UK (81.40).

www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/life-expectancy

Cunco re Germany’s higher mortality rate, although there are other factors as well, the main explanation is that it has one of the highest % of over 65s in the world. As a general rule, in comparable countries, the higher the proportion of over 65s, the higher the death rate. A good example of the reverse ie the lower the %, the lower the death rate is Australia - death rate only 6.5 and only 15.5% over 65s

I have been following that Maggiemaybe, updated later in the day usually.

Of course, it is only reported cases but I would think fairly accurate.

Have you seen this site, Cunco?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have trying to find up-to-date reliable data for TOTAL weekly or monthly deaths in Germany. There is loads of COVID-19 data and discussion about why Germany's figures are lower but I am sceptical about COVID-19 data which is not always comprehensive and comparable between countries. So, I would like to look at reliable up-to-date current data for TOTAL deaths to see if there is a significant blip in those figures as there was for England and Wales.

Does anyone have a source? In my research so far, Google has failed me. I was, though, surprised to see the 'crude' death rate in Germany has been quite high. 'Crude' death rate is number of deaths per 1000 of population. For 2018, Germany was 11.50, compared with 9.03-9.24 for Spain, France and the UK. I have seen no explanation but it seems a little odd unless there is a statistical difference. It may or may not be relevant to the present topic. There must be an answer somewhere.

It is relatively easy to retool to make face mask and protective clothing, but procuring polyethylene coated polypropylene which is needed for has-mat suits and other high levels of protection is a by-product of the petrochemical industry and is in short supply globally.

Eloethan, I know

I am aware there is a shortage

My family members are aware there's a shortage

However we are all also aware that this is a worldwide problem

It's not just us.

Back in 2006 researchers mentioned the possibility of a coronavirus passing from animals to humans

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16940861

Nobody did anything about it

More evidence that the world knew about a possible pandemic. Some more plausible than others

www.businessinsider.com/people-who-seemingly-predicted-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

We have been overwhelmed.

Of course, there is a shortage now because every country is rushing to buy in equipment. But the point is, our government was advised by experts to buy in equipment in 2017 but they voted it down on the grounds of cost.

I wonder if Corbyn would have allowed the Cheltenham Festival (and other large gatherings) to go ahead - an event held over four days that attracted something like 250,00 visitors from all parts of the country. I expect if he had said it should not proceed, there would have been a flurry of comments in the press and elsewhere criticising him for being dictatorial, alarmist and anti-business.

Oopsminty It is the workers who are employed in hospitals, care homes, etc, etc who are angry, desperate and complaining about the lack of protective equipment. Obviously, it has a political dimension because governments are responsible for planning and deciding what the priorities are. And this government's priorities have never appeared to be the wellbeing of ordinary citizens.

It's difficult, isn't it? Face visors can be made. My old school is making them in the DT department. But not masks. They're specialised. Aren't there any UK companies that can retool to make them?

WHO has been mentioning a global shortage of PPE for weeks.

The chronic, global shortage of personal protective equipment is one of the most urgent threats to our collective ability to save lives," Tedros said.

www.businessinsider.com/who-global-shortage-of-ppe-is-urgent-threat-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I know there is a shortage. I am not blaming anyone. It is a fact.

I am worried sick about my son who is working flat out in an ICU and a niece who is working on an end of life Covid ward

Whilst this is ongoing it would be nice if people could just stop politicising

I find it ironic that there are cries of 'The people won't tolerate lockdown much longer!' when the British are known for their apathy when it comes to political dissent. The last time there were REAL riots were the poll tax riots and the miners strikes.

If only we were more like the French and actually held our leaders accountable. I include myself in these criticisms by the way. I sit on the sofa and think, 'A march in London?' Oh but I've got so much work this weekend, and it'll cost a fortune getting there.

annie why not move into the present? Listen to the interviews KS is giving today, read the criticisms of the Govt across right wing press today and just for once be prepared to criticise today’s Govt and say something positive about today’s LOTO?

I understand Kier Starmer was interviewed on LBC this morning and impressed one who Hetty criticised by his statesmanship. Perhaps, unlike some of his Tory-baiting followers, he is taking a leaf out of Clement Attlee's book, supporting the 'war' effort and increasing his chances in winning when peace returns.

I un derstand there is a Time delay of at least 3 weeks before the effect of lockdown is translated into number of deaths and we are only 3 weeks in. Added to the fact that 1000s of people got together in public places over mothers day weekend.
To those of you who are saying we should have had lockdown sooner, I agree but do you think people would have accepted it at that stage? Do you remember the outcry on this site when it was first suggested that the elderly should self isolate?