Greater Manchester

dragonfly46...I'm not disputing the fact that other places have had,...are having it extremely tough....but I started this thread about my area....

I resent the fact that they seem to think they should be treated differently from everybody else.
I live near Leicester and have been in the equivalent of Tier 3 since March. The economic repercussions are exactly the same as Manchester's but we are just getting on with it.
Andy Burnham wants to be PM!

Andy Burnham being vocal is because he is worried and cares about people's lives/livelihood etc...
This particular thread is because I live in Greater Manchester...

Blossoming

Most of the North is in Tier 3.

We were in Tier 1 but apparently going into Tier 2. In Yorkshire.

Iam64

dragonfly46 - what exactly is it about Greater Manchester that you resent?

Indeed. Where do you live Dragonfly ?

Most of the North is in Tier 3.

dragonfly46 - what exactly is it about Greater Manchester that you resent?

Sorry for those in GM to see that you will be in tier 3.

I fail to see why Greater Manchester always gets a special mention except that Andy Burnham is so vocal.
It is the same for all of us especially where I live - we have been in lockdown since March with no letup!!

Iam64..absolutely agree with your post re families meeting up...asking for trouble!
We live right next to the moors and thankfully have enjoyed them more than ever...nevertheless it's been a tough year and I've no intention of mixing socially after keeping safe and well thus far...
I will drop off presents and say a distanced hello to my two sons and families nearby,..facetime my other two children and families overseas....its going to be tough for everyone..but we will get through it...would have probably had a walk up to the local pub for a drink outside...but think as we have been put in Tier 3..that's probably where we will remain over Christmas....

Casdon, I think I was pretty clear about the fact that I don’t consider any area to be special, some are luckier than others.
I do believe that at no time have I called anybody irresponsible. Your words. I simply stated that in areas of dense population it would be easier for the virus to spread. People living and working in close proximity to others makes social distancing more difficult through no fault of their own.
I do feel that for the sake of the economy the tiered system allows the survival of more businesses. When the r falls in Manchester, businesses will be able to open even if say Liverpool rates are rising or vice versa.
When the whole country is forced to lockdown all businesses are negatively affected even if they would be safe to continue.
No country can afford that scenario so we have to try a more measured approach.
Please believe that I am not blaming people of any particular region, we are all doing our best but some regions have greater difficulty for many reasons and others are luckier.
It isn’t a competition. We are all in it together.

The point is Casdon that if you live in cramped housing or have to commute work or even do certain sorts of work, it's much harder to socially isolate. That's nothing to do with being irresponsible.

LauraNorder Sadly there are irresponsible people living everywhere, not just in densely populated areas. The point I was making is that the fact that you live in an area that currently has a low prevalence doesn’t invalidate the Welsh Government’s approach to the whole of Wales being treated the same, because as you said yourself, it can change very rapidly. For example, I live in the Brecon Beacons (equal beauty and mountain air), and my area has an extremely low rate, much lower in fact than Anglesey - but our town, which is some miles away from me, is in the top decile. I think it would be wrong to treat the areas differently, we aren’t special, we’re just lucky at the moment, our turn could well be next, although I’m obviously hoping that the mountain air will keep us safe.

Yes, I think we are LauraNorder. I happen to live in a corner of Essex where the infection rates are low too (although not as low as North Wales currently is).

For some reason best known to itself (could have been something to do with the government grant ), Essex County Council volunteered to put the whole of Essex into Tier 2.

I don't resent the fact that we don't really need it where I live. It's a wealthy area with mainly low density housing. I'm just very grateful that I don't live anywhere where the infection is endemic, I don't have to share my house with many others and I don't have to commute to work.

Casdon please forgive me if I’m wrong but there seems to be an underlying resentment that some areas are lucky enough to be doing better than others. The virus is bound to spread more in densely populated and poorer economic areas, this is absolutely NOT the fault of the people in those areas.
I acknowledge that Anglesey is lucky insofar as it has fresh mountain air and strong sea breezes, a low population fairly well spread. We have big advantages, again not down to people.
I did say in my original post that we can not be complacent and that it can all change on a sixpence.
I do believe that the tier system has the advantage that businesses can continue in low infection areas and that areas can be moved in and out of tiers according to infection rates, giving all businesses are better chance of survival albeit small.
I’m pleased to say that Growstuff and I are on the same wavelength on this, I think.

farview, I'm Greater Manchester as well. We are 12 miles from the city and on the edge of open countryside, moorland. We feel blessed to have good walks from the house, which have kept us sane during this long difficult period. The Rate is dropping consistently in our area. That is a relief but, I cannot understand the nonsensical view that three families can meet for Christmas, over a five day period. All the experts agree this will cause the R to rise again.
The idea that families will chose which three of their extended family will form an exclusive bubble also seems impossible and unlikely to me.
Who is going to choose which much loved sister, aunt, grandparent is included and who is excluded. It's like the Judgement of Solomon.
My fear is that people will bubble with various groups of three. My grandchildren each have three sets of grandparents, three aunts/uncles (siblings of their parent) great grandparents, great aunts to live alone etc etc. How can any of them make the difficult choice that auntie jean gets left out? Which grannie is incuded?
I've made it clear, we are happy to stay home and wait for a cracking celebration around Easter time.

Casdon

My nearest town is the highest decile in Wales, it is is over 350 per 100,000. You can look up on the Public Health Wales website by medium super output area (c7000 population) to see what the rate is for the whole of Wales, I imagine probably for the rest of the UK as well. I wish you were right that at the levels in your area the virus is almost eradicated, but that’s not true - it only takes one party or similar work or social gathering for a flare up to happen very quickly -aka the Anglesey meat factory?

Yes, but the Anglesey meat factory was an isolated incident and seems to have been managed well. The big problem is in areas where hundreds of people are already infected and are mingling normally in shops, schools or in cramped housing.

As somebody upthread pointed out, the population of Greater Manchester is almost the same as the whole of Wales - and there are no mountains or bracing sea air.

This table, which includes data from Public Health Wales, says there have been 19 new cases in Anglesey in the last 7 days. I wonder why there's a discrepancy ... hmm.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1APtcBmI4JeTR0Ysufjavgg2gy4MBiHz0Hf9eKIp5BSo/edit#gid=1865138965

That works out to 3.88 per 100,000 people. Realistically, that's almost as low as it's ever going to be for a long time, unless a vaccine has an effect. If the situation is managed well and the authorities manage to trace contacts, they could eradicate community transmission. Now all you have to do is declare independence and place naval mines in the Menai Strait .

I just looked up Anglesey out of interest, 12 cases in the last 7 days, so the virus is definitely not eradicated there? When you’re in the lowest decile(0-2 cases per 100,00) it is pretty close to eradicated, and there’s area few areas of Wales in that position, but not many.

My nearest town is the highest decile in Wales, it is is over 350 per 100,000. You can look up on the Public Health Wales website by medium super output area (c7000 population) to see what the rate is for the whole of Wales, I imagine probably for the rest of the UK as well. I wish you were right that at the levels in your area the virus is almost eradicated, but that’s not true - it only takes one party or similar work or social gathering for a flare up to happen very quickly -aka the Anglesey meat factory?

Do you mean the highest decile in Wales or the UK?

Powys has nowhere near the number of cases as most areas of England or South Wales.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1APtcBmI4JeTR0Ysufjavgg2gy4MBiHz0Hf9eKIp5BSo/edit#gid=1865138965

There have been 116 new cases in the last 7 days. Without knowing all the details, it could well be that most of them come from the same source. It only takes one infected person to cause many more to be infected over a few days.

Anglesey, Conwy and Gwynedd combined have only had four new cases registered today. At those levels, the virus is almost eradicated.

I’m confused about the suggestion that the high Covid levels are only in South Wales, as that isn’t the case, there are some major hotspots in the North as well? The problem with this virus is that it can flare up very quickly - I live in Powys, which has a low rate overall - but my nearest town has gone in one week from being in the lowest decile to the highest. It isn’t an area of deprivation either, just a market town - but doesn’t hit the headlines because in the scheme of things it’s insignificant.
I’d guess that the population of Greater Manchester is probably similar to the population of the whole of Wales, so fine tuning because one area is lower than another that week is a lot to ask in my opinion. Manchester is by no means the only place in England in this position either, I’ve got family in Nottingham and Leicester, and they are in the same boat.

I agree with you EllanVannin. There were 608 new deaths announced today, which is the highest number in a single day since the first wave.

Thank goodness new cases seem to be reducing (hopefully not a spreadsheet glitch), but they'll begin to soar again.

I fear for those who are going to let their guard down over Christmas.
Visiting etc. Shopping in crowded places, because they will be, seeing as there'll be only a limited time left after Dec. 2nd.
People will just go mad. It doesn't bear thinking. There are already too many people dying.

Growstuff I agree. Until we look after people properly when they have to isolate this problem will continue. If there is no money coming in they will continue to work and spread the virus in those areas.