Intensive Care Wards BBC News.

Pointing out misleading information in the press isn't denying the crisis Hetty. If you are suggesting that's what I'm doing, and trying to make fun of me, then shame on you.

Preferably they don't sing loudly "la la la" in an enclosed space.

The more genuine information people receive, the more likely they can avoid risks. If programmes such as this educate just a fraction of those who think this isn't happening or it's a bad flu outbreak, it's worth it.

Alegrais1 'causing unnecessary fear and panic' - really?

Might I suggest that everyone who still chooses to ignore or play down the current crisis - just sticks their fingers in their ears and sings 'La, la, la'?

Bear in mind 'A pot ignored, boils on'

After watching the BBC report I have to say it was completely in line with what we have heard from DD's friend who is an ICU doctor at one of our large hospitals. She lives 40 miles from the hospital and has only been home for two short breaks since April. In the past she has worked in an ER in New York so she is used to stress and drama but she says this is like nothing they've dealt with before.

Well Lexisgranny I've kept the stats as well. We're both nerds Graphs going back to March, analysis of my own local area, you name it, I've got it. I fully understand the difference between ONS, PHE all the rest of the reporting authorities, and I understand the difference between the 28 day reporting, the 60 day reporting and the reporting of excess deaths over the period of the pandemic.

By the way the numbers are accurate, they are just reported in different time periods and that is explicitly explained on the government website. "Inaccurate" would mean that they are wrong, and they're not wrong.

Next time we report zero deaths in Scotland - like we did for 4 days last week - I'll come on here and say "how great, nobody died today!" and you can all point out how wrong I am. And people can tell me I'm downplaying things. And you'd be right. So I reserve the right to explain how the media's interpretation of the 1,300 deaths reported yesterday was misleading.

Being a bit nerdy, I have kept a record since statistics were published of the daily government figures, both at UK, Wales, and local level, together with a comparison with those provided by the ONS. (My first listing was March 15th 2020 my last, at 4pm yesterday, so I do have a full picture. )

All I will say is you cannot cherrypick as there are many reasons why the figures may not be 100% accurate, eg computer maintenance, method of collation, weekends, Bank Holidays, all of which may add up to a fall and then a large increase on the subsequent days. The vast number of which I have noted at the time. My research has shown that over a few days it more or less evens out and is as accurate as you would expect it to be on such a large scale.

I don’t intend to bore you any further but would say that I am more inclined to growstuff’s views based on approximately 10 months figures sitting in front of me.

I give up. I can't explain this any more clearly than I have. I'm using the daily official government figures, based on Health Board reporting of deaths within 28 days, by date of death.

Believe what you like.

You really don't get it, do you? The last two weeks have caused anomalies because of the bank holidays. The figure of 1,325 deaths reported yesterday probably does include some which had escaped previous reports, but that just means that previous figures should be higher.

There are different reporting methods and all of them show that death rates are increasing rapidly. The situation is not being exaggerated.

My figures are those which had been reported up to yesterday and are accurate. They're the ones reported by the public health authorities.

Alegrias1

Sorry, here's the graph

What's the source of the figures - ONS or Public Health?

As I keep explaining (but you won't listen) there's a difference.

Sorry, my mistake.

The 7 day average of deaths reported yesterday was 809.

Sorry, here's the graph

Well of course the December figures are being updated Growstuff. Some of the deaths did happen in December.

I'm attaching a graph from an analyst who draws the graphs clearly, but all of the is is also on the Government Website. There is a lag in reporting, especially as we have just had 2 shutdowns of the systems over Christmas and New Year.

I think you will be interested in his analyses. twitter.com/RP131

I am not downplaying anything, this is a serious situation. But we don't have more people dying every day than we did in the first wave, at least not yet. It may get that bad, but we're not there yet and people who know the truth but pretend otherwise (i.e. much of the media) are inciting fear for their own ends.

809 new deaths were reported yesterday by PHE, Public Health Wales, Public Health Scotland and the HSC in NI.

The situation is as bad as the statistics show.

Alegrias1

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt Spidergran and assume that you just don't understand it, rather than think that you are trying to make it seem worse than it is. 1,325 deaths reported on Friday. Some of those people died in December.

Nicola Sturgeon tried to explain it at the briefing yesterday but it was a bit too complicated for the journalists there. Some more explanation attached. I hope most people get it now.

So the figures for December should be increased. The Public Health figures are reported when they happen, which is why there's a difference between them and the ONS figures, which incidentally are higher because they include deaths where Covid has been mentioned on the death certificate, not just those where the deceased had a Covid test 28 days before death.

The 1,325 deaths reported yesterday didn't happen in December. They happened as soon as the hospital reported them to Public Health, which could have been a couple of days after they happened. There were lags over Christmas and New Year and there are always are over weekends, which is why the 7 day averages give a more accurate picture.

https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202101/medium-18850-capture1.png https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202101/medium-832900-capture2.png

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt Spidergran and assume that you just don't understand it, rather than think that you are trying to make it seem worse than it is. 1,325 deaths reported on Friday. Some of those people died in December.

Nicola Sturgeon tried to explain it at the briefing yesterday but it was a bit too complicated for the journalists there. Some more explanation attached. I hope most people get it now.

Alegrias1

Spidergran3

growstuff

Alegrias1

growstuff I wonder where that figure came from, because this (attached), is from the government website and shows that the maximum deaths per day by date of death has not exceeded 600 so far in the second wave. So the 7-day average can't be 679.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

I fully expect that it will rise in line with the recent increase in cases.

I can't read the cut off date. Please can you tell me what it is.

1st January, it’s a week out of date. When I see the daily figures of over 1k it also states “over the last twenty four hours”

Nope, completely wrong on all points, sorry Spidergran. Read the rest of the thread. 5th January when I posted it. Not out of date at all. Figures for the 7th January are there now if you want to go and have a look.

Today

Spidergran3

growstuff

Alegrias1

growstuff I wonder where that figure came from, because this (attached), is from the government website and shows that the maximum deaths per day by date of death has not exceeded 600 so far in the second wave. So the 7-day average can't be 679.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

I fully expect that it will rise in line with the recent increase in cases.

I can't read the cut off date. Please can you tell me what it is.

1st January, it’s a week out of date. When I see the daily figures of over 1k it also states “over the last twenty four hours”

Nope, completely wrong on all points, sorry Spidergran. Read the rest of the thread. 5th January when I posted it. Not out of date at all. Figures for the 7th January are there now if you want to go and have a look.

Redhead56

I watched that programme and Northwest tonight. The journalist asked why are the new hospitals not occupied? If the local hospitals were overwhelmed? To me this is a perfectly reasonable question. The answer was they are occupied but only a small percentage of beds were being used. However they were not used to capacity simply as they have not got the staff.
When the reporter was on the ICU ward there appeared to be an extreme amount of staff tending to one bed.
My daughter works in a hospital turning patients all the time. She is lucky if she gets the assistance of another member of staff to help with sometimes very distressed patients.
I think the news coverage is sensationalist and frightening to vulnerable people. Most people do and are still following the guide lines and are now lonely and depressed not seeing their families. The people who have ignored the guidelines so far are not going to change their ways no matter how dramatic the news comes across, The news coverage should be honest straightforward and unbiased. Regarding the statistics on deaths the bottom line is the general public just want the truth without dramatics.

Does your daughter work in ICU? Several people are required to turn an ICU patient.

growstuff

Alegrias1

growstuff I wonder where that figure came from, because this (attached), is from the government website and shows that the maximum deaths per day by date of death has not exceeded 600 so far in the second wave. So the 7-day average can't be 679.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

I fully expect that it will rise in line with the recent increase in cases.

I can't read the cut off date. Please can you tell me what it is.

1st January, it’s a week out of date. When I see the daily figures of over 1k it also states “over the last twenty four hours”

I think seeing London reaching 1 in 30 with the virus, a few more people might realise just how dangerous it is.

I like to know the facts and evidence behind headlines, and don’t just depend on the published/televised news to find out what is actually going on.

A highly informative source I find is the Independent Sage Group, which holds its meetings in public every Friday 1.30pm on YouTube. Medics, scientists, epidemiologists from many different disciples. You can find past meeting on YouTube too. Gives much more info than arguing the toss on GN

I can see where you’re coming from Allegrias but the actual facts at the moment are stark enough without the need for “scaremongering”.

Oh dear, I keep coming on here to defend myself, but I'm pretty angry about people who are suggesting that I am downplaying anything. I'm trying to say that the powers that be should stop reporting misleading figures to scare us all. We're adults, we don't need scaring. And if anyone says these idiots who are deniers need scaring, well no, that's just wrong. We're not in a dictatorship, for goodness sake.

No-one should ever be for scaremongering, that's not acceptable. Where do we draw the line?

I was not suggesting exaggeration and the fact that you think I was Tweedle just reinforces what I was saying. You really don't understand the stats.

Enough from me.

While we still have the idiots who say it is all a hoax, a conspiracy to control the populace or a minor illness no worse than flu, I am all for scaremongering. If I were working in the ICU wards, I would welcome reporters and cameras if I thought it would help educate the public to the severity of this pandemic.

As for the accusations of exaggeration, “It is only 600, not a thousand deaths”, is that not enough? That works out at 4,200 a week people dying horribly of this vicious disease. The people mourning their loved ones to the virus are possibly the best ones to try to bring home the horror of the effects of it,