Stats on the up

The last major outbreak of Ebola in West Africa was contained because it affected areas where quarantine and contact tracing was possible plus it was a known virus and recognised much more quickly.

Coronavirus has been so deadly exactly because it was a novel virus. Our immune systems did not know how to react nor did hospital staff know how to treat it. If you think back to the early weeks and months it was all about helping patients to breathe while their own immune systems fought as best they could. But that often resulted in cytokine storms which caused multiple organ failure. Now, medics know to treat with immuno-suppressants and the vaccines, though not 100% effective, do give very good protection again infection or becoming seriously ill.

Unless you shut down all international travel and trade you will never contain this. Stopping individuals from travelling for business or pleasure is only part of the picture. We still demand goods and services. Those goods and services rely on raw materials and finished products being shipped around the globe and the logistics of that demand that people interact with one another.

Not that it’s a virus competition! My point really was that minimising the potential impact of Covid as it being just another virus is really not accurately depicting the position.

Ebola has a high mortality rate and high potential transmissibility, but in fact worldwide it has (reportedly) killed less than 100,000 people in total because the control measures have been effective though? There hasn’t been any other novel virus which has spread throughout the world as Covid has in our lifetimes.

Casdon

There hasn’t been another virus with such deadly potential in our lifetimes though GrannyGravy13 has there?

Oh but there has and it’s called Ebola, a virus which is spread through direct contact with body fluids: blood, saliva, sweat, tears, mucus, vomit, faeces, breast milk, urine and semen of people infected with it. It is also spread by touching things that have been contaminated with these fluids. Some outbreaks have had a 90% mortality rate. The virus is considered to have strong weapon-potential such that the USA include it in their bio-defence programme.

In 2020, Congress directed $535 million for vaccines, medicines and diagnostic tools to fight Ebola, which is still considered a dangerous and emerging threat.

The Oxford team which has developed the ChAdOx1 AZ vaccine against Covid were part of the Accelerated Ebola Vaccine Programme in 2014. It’s thanks to work done then that they were able to develop their Covid vaccine as quickly as they did.

I wasn’t suggesting anything except that attempting to minimise the impact of this as being the same as other viruses is not terribly helpful. The truth is that none of us know what will happen next, the whole world is muddling through on best guesses , some of which have a scientific basis and some which don’t.

Ebola is pretty deadly as was HIV (before treatments)

Casdon

There hasn’t been another virus with such deadly potential in our lifetimes though GrannyGravy13 has there?

What do you suggest we do?

People have to work, to provide food, medical care, rubbish removal and so many more public facing professions

The majority of the people in hospital now with Covid are either unvaccinated or have underlying health conditions (as do I) .

The best we can do is carry on with our lives, pay attention to hygiene, keep our homes well ventilated and choose carefully where we go out to socialise.

There hasn’t been another virus with such deadly potential in our lifetimes though GrannyGravy13 has there?

We live with risk every day, COVID-19 is just the newest risk.

We mitigate the risk by vaccination as we do many other deadly diseases.

For those fortunate enough to be able to work from home or retired they have the choice to avoid social/work situations. Some have had to work throughout, some have chosen to see their families throughout others haven’t.

‘Acceptable’ in the context of Covid seems to not be directly related to deaths, but down to whether the impact on the NHS is manageable, initially as a stand alone issue, but now whether it can be managed as well as near normal service provision for other services. In Scotland hospitalisation and ICU rates seem to be running very close to the tipping point for continuation of normal service provision at the moment, so I guess that may be the testing ground for what comes next. I’ll be interested to hear what Nicola Sturgeon has to say at the next review, we are behind the curve in Wales but will no doubt follow.

MaizieD

Alegrias1

I'm not wound up MaizieD, and I think its a common tactic to use that as a criticism to try to discredit another person's posts. If you want to see me wound up get yourself over to the Pen Farthing thread

Don't be daft. I just want to know what you mean by 'curtailed' because you are getting what looks very much to me like wound up and continually posting to attempt to prove that only you are being sensible about the situation. And accusing others of trying to 'curtail' your life, or advocating 'curtailing' people's lives is meaningless if you don't explain what you mean by 'curtailed'.

So I'm daft and wound up? Just as well I'm thick skinned as well .
Sorry if you think I'm continually posting but I stand up for myself, its the way I'm made.

I've not suggested in any way that I'm the only one being sensible, nor am I angry about anyone trying to curtail my life. I do a lot fewer things now than we are legally allowed to do, because I do what I think is safe for me. But there is a definite flavour of posters who make sidelong remarks about people not being good upstanding citizens because they don't wear their masks, they do go to festivals, or football matches or whatever. Or that we should all happily accept a limited life without question, for some as yet unspecified period, and it will be good for us anyway.

Way back at the start of the pandemic I read an article about how pandemics end. I tried to find it again but I can't Anyway, there are 2 ways it can end. One, the disease subsides and becomes a negligible threat to society. Or two, people learn to live with the risk, when it becomes acceptable. Acceptable isn't the same as negligible.

growstuff

So learning to live with Covid means learning to live with people dying from it? Hmmm!

erm.....yes.

Its hard. Its not trite. Life's a b****. And so is this virus.

growstuff

You're not the only poster on GN Alegrias and certainly not the only one who has come out with the trite "learning to live with it". I would be interested in what other people think it means, not just you.

trite?

Practical.

But you say people are defensive about telling you. Growstuff. Maybe they just agree with me.

So learning to live with Covid means learning to live with people dying from it? Hmmm!

You're not the only poster on GN Alegrias and certainly not the only one who has come out with the trite "learning to live with it". I would be interested in what other people think it means, not just you.

growstuff

Maizie : I see 'learning to live with it' as doing everything possible to mitigate the risk of infection, not letting it wash over you, several times...

That's how I see it too. I'm interested in what others mean, but they seem very defensive about giving an explanation. It really does seem to me that others don't agree with our interpretation.

I've given you detailed answers twice in the last month about what I think it means to "live with it". That's not defensive. Its maybe different to what you think, but that's OK. But that doesn't mean you get to suggest that we are not answering the question, just because you don't like the answer and disagree with us.

Alegrias1 Fri 06-Aug-21 12:54:08
4 What exactly do you mean by "to live with it"? Do you really mean that we have to accept the unnecessary deaths?

We accept unnecessary deaths from road accidents, we could avoid them by having a 10mph speed limit and having a man walk in front of the car with a red flag.

We accept the unnecessary deaths from alcohol related diseases, we could ban the sale of alcohol tomorrow.

We accept the unnecessary deaths from 'flu, we could have all been wearing masks all winter and never mixing with other people.

So, in the future, we will be accepting unnecessary deaths from Covid. Its hard, but this is the world now. That's what it means to live with it.

Alegrias1 Thu 26-Aug-21 11:03:40
What does "learning to live with it" mean to you? I'm genuinely interested because I think it's become one of those catchphrases which people interpret differently.

I think that's for me growstuff? I'll answer anyway.

We have to realise that rising case numbers are not the direct link to serious illness the way they were earlier in the pandemic. We have to realise that this is never going away. We have to realise that we now have something else that is going to affect our health, possibly seriously. We have to realise that lockdowns are not a sustainable way of managing this for years on end - as NZ are learning to their cost. We have to accept that most of us are going to get it, and for most of us its going to be a mild illness. We have to accept that for some it won't be, and that we need to gear up the NHS to manage that as best as possible.

Well Growstuff why on earth would I pretend the virus doesn’t exist
I suppose it depends how exciting your normal life is As I spend probably 90% of it in the home I don’t run any great risk

rosie1959

I thought it a simple statement Growstuff life does have to go on I woke up this morning grateful for another day. There have been times in my life many years ago when this wasn’t true.
Yes there is Covid but it’s not the most important thing looking after yourself mentally as well as physically is just as important

So how are you going to "live with it"? Are you going to pretend the virus doesn't exist?

I'm prepared to live with the risk, but I'll do everything I can to mitigate the risk because I really don't want to be infected. That means that life can't go back to being "normal".

Alegrias1

I'm not wound up MaizieD, and I think its a common tactic to use that as a criticism to try to discredit another person's posts. If you want to see me wound up get yourself over to the Pen Farthing thread

Don't be daft. I just want to know what you mean by 'curtailed' because you are getting what looks very much to me like wound up and continually posting to attempt to prove that only you are being sensible about the situation. And accusing others of trying to 'curtail' your life, or advocating 'curtailing' people's lives is meaningless if you don't explain what you mean by 'curtailed'.

Maizie : I see 'learning to live with it' as doing everything possible to mitigate the risk of infection, not letting it wash over you, several times...

That's how I see it too. I'm interested in what others mean, but they seem very defensive about giving an explanation. It really does seem to me that others don't agree with our interpretation.

Yes Alegrias told everyone I tell everyone about my rescue dogs and have pictures of kittens on the wall
which is not true...
My lounge is full of handmade cards which my daughter is insisting on making me twice daily by the look of it. She had even made one for her dead pet rabbit today, who died maybe 15 years ago. She then insisted said card was put in her youngest teenage brothers bedroom

I'm not wound up MaizieD, and I think its a common tactic to use that as a criticism to try to discredit another person's posts. If you want to see me wound up get yourself over to the Pen Farthing thread

*but if “living with it” means curtailing my life for the next 20 years, that ain’t going to happen.^

'Curtailing' is a highly subjective concept Alegrias. Perhaps you could clarify what you mean by it, then we can see why you're getting wound up by other people's desire for caution.

Although I know people who have had relatives die from covid. Those I know in my age group 45-55 who have had it (and their children adult and younger) MOST have said it wasn't very nice but no one has said it has been the most ill they have ever been. My one relative has some sort of long covid though, which seems worse than the initial infection and I think it is the randomness of illness/infection/long term outcomes which is the most worrying. I must admit I've started to do more stuff but witnessing others behaviour maybe not as much as most people but I guess my adult children live the life I'd like to be leading...

MaizieD

Alegrias1

growstuff

Saetana You are implying that it is inevitable that everybody will eventually be infected, which is not true.

Well, I think you'll find...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58334835

...we need to get used to Covid circulating.

Experts have been clear we should expect to be infected repeatedly over our lifetimes.

But each reinfection should be milder than the previous one.

Hence - life goes on and we have to learn to live with it.

Same answer, no matter how many times you ask.

I'm a bit at you using the BBC as your QED, Alegrias.

I see 'learning to live with it' as doing everything possible to mitigate the risk of infection, not letting it wash over you, several times...

Anecdote, not data, but most people I've spoken to who have had Covid have said it's awful and they wouldn't wish it on their worst enemy. I really don't want to experience that first hand.

Well let me explain MaizieD

I quote Nick Triggle, who is pretty much the only journalist from the BBC or anywhere else, normally, who doesn’t think that they are there to parrot the government's message, or alternatively to terrify us into hiding in our houses for evermore. His reports throughout this pandemic have been measured and realistic, and any predictions have usually been shown to be accurate. He also stays away from triggering and provocative phrases like “letting it wash over you”. He quotes several "experts". Now there's a word that can get me going.

Data, not anecdote. 1/3 of people who have Covid have no symptoms at all. Its stands to reason that nobody wants to catch a potentially serious disease, but if “living with it” means curtailing my life for the next 20 years, that ain’t going to happen.

I find it best to read what someone is saying, apply some critical thought, check the sources and decide for myself, rather that thinking its questionable just because its the BBC/Sky/Mail/Guardian/GB News.