Where are Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance??? Are they locked away at the Tower of London under Boris' orders?...

Nannagarra - I can't see much difference after yesterday's figures. What's your take?

Algorithms are not my department but the track record bodes well. As you say, we’ll see.
Enjoy your lunch.

I was going to wait a decent amount of time before answering but I have to go and make lunch, so I'll answer right now

I do have a problem with Zoe in that it's self-selecting and their algorithm is a bit mysterious, but they do have a good track record of identifying trends early.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Hi
I was joking about “Right then” or I wouldn’t have mentioned it and included the comment. ? I like your approach - no nonsense - which is why I’ve engaged.
Yes, we’ll see what happens from tomorrow. In Zoe and the ONS I have more belief than the current subset. A more accurate idea of the probability of contracting the infection in a life with fewer restrictions would help to inform the choices I make.
Whilst recognising that for most people there is less ‘impact’ and ‘threat’ than formerly, it is fundamental that the statistics and information imparted can be trusted.
It’s an issue of confidence on very many levels, for me starting with the science. I can spring board from there.

I’m pleased that reinfections are being included from tomorrow. Purely anecdotal observations seem to suggest that quite a lot people are being reinfected. We will have a better idea when these infections are counted too.

Right then Sorry, my first line did sound confrontational!

We conflate two things, don't we? There is every chance that cases are higher than the official figures say. The re-infections are not currently being measured and to a smaller extent, people aren't always reporting LFTs. The re-infections will be included from tomorrow so we'll see what happens. Zoe reckons cases are going up, but it also says that cases in my area are about 1.5 times as high as they have ever been in the whole pandemic; I don't know anybody at the moment who is positive.

Of course it doesn't matter if I know anybody positive or not, because the number of people I know, or come into contact with, is minuscule compared to the whole population. Which brings me on to the other part of the discussion.

It really doesn't matter how many people each of us knows who are positive, that doesn't reflect whether cases are rising or not. I knew several people who were positive at the start of the year, but none now, but I'm not here trumpeting how cases are coming down, based on my individual experience. Personal experience does not translate into universal metrics. Infected children may infect adults; but unless that happens on a large scale it doesn't mean cases are going up, right now, this minute.

And my biggest issue, I suppose, is with the complete misinterpretation of numbers we've seen on this thread; cases are going up in my town, so they must be going up everywhere or the TV told me cases have gone up 3 days in a row and I don't understand maths so cases are going up universally! Well reported cases have gone down 3 days in a row, but I haven't seen anybody here celebrating because cases are going down.

Don't get me wrong; I think Johnson and his crew would do anything to curry favour with the population and save their own skins, but at some point restrictions have to be eased and cases will go up. But even if cases go up, if serious illness or worse is now much less of a threat, there is no point is worrying about increased cases and using that as a reason not to open up. Denmark are opening up and their case number is much higher than ours. France are starting to ease restrictions even though their case load is twice as high as ours has ever been. This is not England going it alone and flying in the face of science. This is how we live now. There will be more cases. But they may not impact our lives like they have been doing.

Thanks for taking the time to consider my points Alegrias. Though numbers of cases on graphs are shown to be flatlining, I’m not completely convinced this is an accurate reflection.
Current practice to only acknowledge new infections, particularly when Omicron is highly contagious and some people are being reinfected, is not sound mathematically. How can we trust how many cases there are when only a sub section of them are presently being shown on the graphs? Yes, this will alter from tomorrow.
Agreed that cases are more likely to be fewer than real case numbers; it would be interesting to compare ONS findings for January 2021 and this month and see how they stack up against government statistics for those periods. I am happy to be corrected on this.
The observations of LovelyLady, GNers, practice nurses and myself signal what is happening in the community. They are based upon personal experience and do not appear to be borne out in published graphs. Infected school children may in turn spread the infection to the adults with whom they live and mix.
I am not suspicious, nor am I anti-science. As I explained in my previous post, I would be further convinced if the figures were more comprehensive and more precise.
We are right to discuss; my thoughts were given to exchange ideas - no more than that; I sincerely hope that you are correct for everyone’s sake.
It is not my intention to cause anyone on GN alarm or to present the idea that things are worse than they are. I want to trust the maths.
Right then (it sounds as if sleeves need to be rolled up when saying this), I’ve said my piece.

Right then; I haven't said cases are falling, I've said they've flatlined.

Cases reported have always been less than real case numbers so that doesn't change if a proportion of people don't record their LFT, because the important thing is trends, not actuals. Re-infections will be included from tomorrow. Maybe we'll have a different discussion then.

Same argument for LFTs being readily available. We're falling over them where I live, incidentally.

Cases being rife in schools doesn't mean they are rife in all groups. Unvaccinated children mixing as they do are, unfortunately, showing high case rates compared to the rest of the population.

LovelyLadys experience is that she believes that cases are rising based on looking at a queue of children. Kids again. No actual numbers or trends, but suspicion.

People in GN are posting about those they know who are positive. Self selecting sample.

Your son is testing daily? Not sure how that means that cases are increasing...?

Number of cases will do its thing irrespective of how deaths are recorded.

Scepticism is fair enough. Basing your view of the situation on suspicion and anecdote, not so much.

I'm not an agent of government intent on trying to convince everybody that everything is sunshine and roses. I just don't see the point of thinking things are worse than they are, and I like to point out when people draw invalid conclusions from irrelevant observations. It's a discussion site, I'm discussing. So believe me or not, that's up to you. But I'm not joining in with the anti-science right now, thanks. And if cases go up in the future, I'll not be arguing otherwise. And it doesn't mean I'm wrong now, either.

I’d happily agree with your arguments about number falling Alegrias if
- all +ve LFTs were recorded but there is no compulsion to do this
- re infections were included
- LFTs were easily available: I’ve queued for my prescription with a long line of parents of school-aged children waiting for a delivery and texting other parents about a supply
- the nurses in my GP practice didn’t tell me C19 is rife in local schools
- I could overlook the experience of LovelyLady
- I didn’t notice how many GNers post from all corners of the UK about family members who currently are affected by C19
- my son (+ve) and his family weren’t testing daily
- there was a clear distinction between deaths recorded with or as a result of C19 within 28 days of a +ve test
- deaths solely caused by C19 after the 28 day period were recorded

but I can’t so I view current statistics with a degree of scepticism.

Perhaps the number of hospital admissions gives a more accurate picture.

"Most people are not registering..."

Proof?

Just asking -PCR tests were no longer required, most people are not registering when they test positive for Covid via a LF test- how can people say covid cases are falling?

Also don’t think because you are trebled jab songstress60 you are safe, two of my daughters were and they have fallen with covid for the second time.

Wow, songstress60, you've done your bit so don't bother to test? Unless you don't leave the house and mix with others, you could be carrying the virus and infect others. Some may have underlying conditions and some may just be unlucky and become ill or develop long covid complications. Covid really is nothing like flu - multi-organ failure, septic shock anyone? Not the usual outcome of a common cold.

Testing is no hardship. It takes a few seconds to do and then a wait of around 20 minutes for the result. In the same way that wearing a mask for a short while in enclosed spaces isn't difficult either. Neither are perfect, but it's better than no action at all and it means that we are caring for others.

It seems that Mrs Thatcher was correct when she said "There's no such thing as society". Not with people around who don't give a damn about anyone else but themselves. Sickening.

No. If you don’t do LFT’s all you’ve done is protect yourself and to hell with everyone else. What about if you visit a vulnerable friend or relative?

So sick of hearing about covid figures and as for Chris Whitty my name for him is Professor Lockdown. He can disappear for ever for me!!!! We don't have statistics for flu or colds so now we have the vaccine let's just move on. By the way I NEVER do lateral flow tests. I am treble jabbed so I consider I have done my bit for society.

Van Tam is leaving at the end of March to go back to academia, he was the one who did the Christmas lectures. Vallance is still in post.

The change in requirements for the PCR tests won't make too much of a difference because LFTs are also reported.

If I’m right Patrick valance has left. He did the Christmas lectures on bbc2 all about the virus. Excellent viewing. Also numbers look like they are going down as they have changed who and how positive results are reported. My granddaughter is in a class of 14 and in a week 12 have gone down with covid.

Well I'd rather hear the learned opinion of Chris Witty and Valance, thanks.

Let's get on with covid and since we have the vaccine shall we just treat it like a cold. Sick of all the statistics and I am glad restrictions are over. Bring back normality

ps and other Granny was an accountant.

My little person bamboozled her other Grandma with numbers when she was helping DGD with lockdown maths

I've just realised that could be understood two ways...

I mean, of course, how little understanding there is about numbers among people.

That's why I stick to numbers. Less chance of inadvertently saying something insulting.

Or, alternatively, learn how maths works.

Its a worry, really, how little people understand numbers.

DiscoDancer1975

Numbers have been rising again according to my TV screen. They were going down, and now the last three nights, they’ve gone up.

Perhaps my TV is broken?

I wouldn't argue. In my post I mentioned numbers increasing, which they have been in my county but others on here know different so we had better touch our forelocks and shuffle off to the back of the class.

So when we’re told Covid is not increasing, I know the authorities are lying.

I can't let this stand.

Just because many children on your area have the virus, that doesn't mean that the cases are going up universally. It's wrong to say that the authorities are lying. The stats are all available for those who are interested. Why would a school tell someone about their pupils' health status when it has nothing to do with them?

In our local academy junior school, half the children are absent due to covid. This was Friday one day ago. So when we’re told Covid is not increasing, I know the authorities are lying.
In the senior school, the pupils stand in lines in the playground before going to their respective class. I could see the greatly reduced numbers there compared to previously.
When I asked the schools how many pupils as a %were absent they wouldn’t say. I then asked for just the number, again they said they weren’t allow to divulge that info. Very very odd. Most suspicious and a worry.