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All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 18:12:28

I have to say that I was amazed when I heard NC say the EU referendum was no longer a red line. The one defining feature of the LDs has been their pro-Europe stance and if there were to be a referendum it would surely be a no. I have this nightmare vision of a Con/Lib Dem government where nothing gets done because all the energies go into fights with the SNP and setting up the EU referendum

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 18:57:48

Well,I Expect lots of us have nightmare visions of nothing getting done in Parliament because of fights with the SNP, but maybe we imagine a Labour government trying to get deals done and hoping the SNP will support them.

Ana Mon 04-May-15 18:59:49

Which the SNP will only do if they get something in return....on and on and on

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 19:01:34

Ad nauseam!

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 19:06:42

They were saying today on the Politics Today that it doesn't matter who eventually is able to form a government the SNP will have to be listened to regardless as neither mainstream parties will on present polls - and of course if they are right - be able to command a majority.

Someone also suggested that Labour might abstain rather than vote down a Tory Queens speech - that I would find utterly unacceptable.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 19:16:40

GT, it looks likely that Clegg will lose his seat, so he can say what he wants.
I heard it, too, about Clegg and Cameron deciding behind closed doors.
Sunday Politics was interesting this week. Apparently the Tories are targeting mainly Libdem seats and only one Labour seat. If the Tories win those seats and there is a coalition talk between Libdems and Tories, why would the Libdems go along with the party that took most of their seats?
Any agreement this time will need the agreement of the party membership, not just MPs.

Whitewave, I also like the Steve Coogan broadcast on behalf of the Labour party, particularly what he says about the NHS.
Apparently Philip Pullman and Mark Haddon are both supporting the NHA.

Those of you on here who are attacking the SNP, did you want the SNP to stay in the UK? If so, you are just getting what you wanted. They are part of the UK, and have just as much right as any other party to take their rightful place in parliament when they are elected. Because they are part of the UK, everything that happens in parliament affects them. There is no Evel as any money kept in England to use on, for example, HS2, means less money for Scotland. Should the SNP not be allowed to make decisions on HS2?

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 19:23:33

This cheered me up, whitewave.

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/05/04/even-with-fewer-seats-labour-make-the-best-case-for-legitima

Ana Mon 04-May-15 19:31:30

I wanted the SNP to stay in Scotland.

Ana Mon 04-May-15 19:32:35

I'm pretty sure they did, too!

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 19:33:32

Them's my sentiments exactly! Talking about it to my DS and he said the same i.e. if more people voted against a right wing government than for one, than that can be the only legitimate form of government.

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 19:39:38

B

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 19:40:50

Sorry - fat finger. I was going to ask which of you are staying up on Thursday?

Nelliemoser Mon 04-May-15 19:42:57

Not me, I never do. Too afraid of being disappointed probably. My parents used to make a party of it.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 19:43:02

This is really interesting. Someone who has worked with both Miliband brothers.

theconversationuk.cmail2.com/t/r-l-apyuly-iudkikukhu-h/

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 19:43:36

Hopefully me - but if it looks as if the Tories are going to get a majority I shall go to bed in despair.

I shall need a glass of wine or 2!

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 19:46:38

I will, GT. I usually do. If you look on the www.democraticdashboard.com website, it tells you what time the results for your constituency are likely to be announced.

Iam64 Mon 04-May-15 19:47:08

I know I'll be too tired to stay up - but I may have a snooze on the sofa so I can wake up for some of the results. I'm not feeling very hopeful ….. and like whitewave may need a glass or two, followed by an early night.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 19:49:26

democraticdashboard.com/

This one works.

Nelliemoser Mon 04-May-15 19:55:04

I have little chance of unseating our incumbent MP but I have my poster in the window clearly stating my opposing principles.

It must go down a treat in the close where I live. Curtains will be twitching "Fancy them living in a house like this and voting that".

I am quite enjoying the situation.

Anyone who has followed my posts over the last two years must have a good idea of my political view point by now.

Wheniwasyourage Mon 04-May-15 20:27:56

whitewave, Trident is an American system. They own it and we couldn't use it, supposing we were so immoral as to wish to do so, without their permission. (Who we would use it against is another question, as I can't see why we should want to obliterate Moscow and it's no use against IS.) We just get to pay for it and keep it less than 30 miles from a major centre of population which happens to include 5 of my grandchildren angry angry

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 20:48:09

when it all sounds nonsense to me so the British tax payer pays for it and can't use it or own it? DS said that we would have to get a special code from the USA in order to fire it - blimey we are living in a mad world.

Ana Mon 04-May-15 21:08:44

I must say I think that's a rather outdated attitude, Nelliemoser. You really believe that curtains will be twitching because your house doesn't match your political persuasion?

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 21:09:58

Vote Green to get rid of it.

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 21:11:51

Well I may 'see' some of you on GN on Thursday night then. I'm actually working away from home so will be in a hotel. I'll stay awake as long as I can or until the news is so bad I can't bear it. I'd like to be awake to see NF not get in. I wonder how much help the exit polls will be? In 1997 it was clear very early wasn't it what was happening but we stayed up to savour it. I can't remember 92, it was too traumatic

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 21:13:24

Ana - I'm not sure it is outdated - if it were, why is the phrase 'champagne socialist' bandied about?