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All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 21:14:56

We have a French friend staying at the mioment and she was amazed to see posters in windows and placards in people's gardens. It's not allowed in France apparently

Ana Mon 04-May-15 21:18:48

Is there an opposite term, I wonder?

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 21:21:26

Thanet South due to be announced 6.00 a.m. , GrannyTwice.
It's the only seat where I do not mind the Tories being in a position to win, although Labour are a respectable third.

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 21:25:51

GrannyTwice I think that is a good idea.

There were loads of placards by the side of the roads when we went out today. DH said that he hoped they will remove them very quickly afterwards.

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 21:40:54

DH - 6am sad but I suppose I could waKe up for that instead. Rose - I've been thinking about it since she told us - I just took the placards etc for granted but now Im wondering.

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 21:43:08

I meant DJ of course.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 21:46:00

I remember reading about somewhere near here where one party put posters on lampposts and was asked to take them down as they did not have permission. I haven't seen any posters in this village this time.

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 21:49:18

Are these placards - and huge billboards on trailers in the fields - going to make anyone change their mind? I doubt it.
We just say 'Oh no (or something similar) - look at this lot blighting the countryside!'
Are they allowed by the side of the road in France?
We don't seem to have any in gardens or windows round here.

No-one says 'Oh look, there's a placard for the local whatever candidate, I really must vote for them'.
#notthateasilyled

mcem Mon 04-May-15 21:56:01

I'm genuinely puzzled. So many GN posters were very vocal during the referendum campaign and very anti independence for Scotland. Did you really think we would Better Together or was it just a way of expressing disapproval?
I'd honestly like to know what you want to see/hear now from our elected MPs.
Or is it just a case of put up and shut up?

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 22:05:20

confused
I haven't changed my mind and would still like Scotland to stay as part of the United Kingdom.
I think we are Better Together; I have a lot of Scottish friends who think so too - but, of course, they don't live in Scotland!

What I would like to hear is less petty squabbling and oneupmanship and more working together for the sake of the whole country.

Is that a winged pig I see up there? .......

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 22:13:42

But the problem is rose that surely it would be impossible for people to agree what was best for the sake of the country.

mcem Mon 04-May-15 22:16:48

May I just point out that it was DC and EM who so vehemently refused to contemplate any sort of cooperation with SNP. I found that very disappointing, and at tonight's hustings our local Labour candidate admitted that he too was disappointed at EM's reaction.
Is it really so difficult to think that 2 left of centre parties might just have a few political concepts in common?

Eloethan Mon 04-May-15 23:36:11

I usually stay up to watch general elections, although I don't think I did the last one. I think we'll probably both be staying up this time even though - unlike my husband - I feel a bit gloomy about the whole thing.

We have put up a Labour poster - our next door neighbour has one and there are two more in our road - none for other parties. (One of our neighbours stood as a local UKIP candidate a few years ago - and got absolutely nowhere - he hasn't even put a poster up this time). Our Labour MP is very pro-active, responsive to local issues and has promptly responded to the couple of e-mails I have sent her. I think her commitment to the area will encourage people who are not very political to vote for her. My husband will definitely vote Labour. I'm still toying with the idea of voting Green. I wish we had PR (though not the system that we were given a vote on after the last election).

When I visited Colchester recently, I saw quite a few Lib Dem posters. I think Bob Russell has been the Lib Dem MP there for many years and is popular. In the Suffolk countryside, Tory posters span the fences which enclose large tracts of farmland. In the village where my mum lives, a few more Tory posters, but on 1960's private housing estate where she lives, there are one or two Labour posters - which is quite a surprise. It is a staunch Tory area but not that many Tory posters - only farmers and the conspicuously wealthy seem happy to advertise their Tory affiliations. I wrote to the local MP about a matter concerning a heavily "slanted" "consultation questionnaire" re the Meals on Wheels service. I received a reply which showed that he had not even bothered to read my (fairly succinct) letter properly. I did not even receive a reply from the local Tory councillors. Needless to say, mum recalled their complete lack of interest and voted (by post) accordingly.

FarNorth Mon 04-May-15 23:44:01

I'd like to hear less petty squabbling and one-upmanship too, rose. Too bad they mostly seem to be coming from the conservatives and labour.

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 09:12:28

OK this mornings polls taken from the Guardian (previous ones have been fromthe New Statesman) the original one hasn't been published this morning.

Tories 274
Labour 270
SNP 54
Libs 27
Greens 1
Other 21

So at the moment the anti Tory vote is (allowing 10 for the others) 362 to 285. Of course the Polls could be wrong. We could always leave out the Libs who seem to be selling their soul at the moment and the seats would fall as 335 to the anti-Tory vote to 321 To the pro Tory vote.

Iam64 Tue 05-May-15 10:12:51

Is PR the way to go? I know this has been discussed before, but it does seem wrong that a party with such a small majority over the 2nd past the poll party can be seen as having a mandate to introduce so many policies that are not supported by the majority of people.

rosequartz Tue 05-May-15 10:29:07

My bet is that we will get a hung parliament.

Has anyone else noticed how the country has ground to a halt now the MPs are not sitting in the House and are out canvassing? Nothing happening, no services running?

No, neither have I! I suppose we do need them, do we?

GrannyTwice Tue 05-May-15 10:42:50

Well rose. Belgium lasted for was it 2 years without a government ( still had MPs though)

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 10:44:42

So what Happened G2, how is everything funded?

GrannyTwice Tue 05-May-15 10:53:05

Can't do a link but there's a Washington Post article online. It was 589 days

rosesarered Tue 05-May-15 11:07:01

Rosequartz grin Civil servants run the country really.

granjura Tue 05-May-15 12:49:23

Wow Whitewave, that is so close! But is it right that the election will be entirely decided by very small parts of the country in the relatively few constituencies which could go other way (the proper term escapes me just now).

Ana, I totally understand the point Nelliemoser makes about 'curtain twitching' - if you live in a staunch Conservative area and put a labour sticker or sign in your garden or window- people do notice. Same if you live a staunch Labour area and put a Tory sticker or placard- I can assure you.

I've always lived in an area which did not 'match' our political 'views' - and it is not easy with neihgbours if you stick your neck out or openly discuss that you don't agree!

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 13:05:28

Well granj really I think it is always the case that the election is decided by the marginals, so nothing has changed there unless there is a landslide like the Labour one (happy days smile)

varian Tue 05-May-15 14:00:07

In our village LibDem posters outnumber Tory ones by three to one and there aren't any others. However the next village has several Green posters

Five candidates spoke at the local hustings, and four of them seemed reasonable people, intelligent and well-informed. I thought the LibDem came over best but I know the Tory, Green and Labour candidates also went down well with some of the audience.

The UKIP man was embarrassingly hopeless and so will not take votes from the Tories.

But even a small number who voted LibDem last time moving to Green will let the Tories in.

Anyone tempted to do that should know that a large number of green business leaders have praised the LibDem's record in protecting the environment and said it's essential for the LibDems to be part of any future coalition.

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 18:17:19

Right better late than never but have decided for the first time ever to help on Thursday. I live a marginal seat and will offer my services to Labour to try to get rid if the Tory.