DJ
May be the last 
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(307 Posts)Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22
Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?
My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.
If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.
However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?
I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?
Is this for you, Tegan, or am I getting mixed up?
theconversationuk.cmail2.com/t/r-l-aokidy-iudkikukhu-d/
For whoever likes betting.
jo1book
No I dislike tactical voting, why sell your soul to the devil.
I firmly believe that if the Scottish voter votes for the SNP then they have a right to take their place in Westminster, that's Democracy.
What I find abhorrant is the rhetoric and dare I say it the naevity of a party/parties who declare they will never vote in agreement with an opposition party. What conclusion can be made without resulting to insults about the reasons behind the bile.
Question.
The SNP and Plaid say they will never, ever, no way vote with the Tories. We are put on a war footing, will they continue with their rhetoric of bugger the good of the UK we just want to stuff one up a Tory?
For arguements sake , The Tories want to raise the funding to Scotland and Wales through the Barnet Formula, would the SNP and Plaid say bugger our voters we won't shift an inch we are just are in it to stuff the Tories.
What a was state of affairs politics has become.
Another interesting article, which I read after posting the above comments.
opendemocracy.us1.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=9c663f765f28cdb71116aa9ac&id=712314efed&e=3e0fb9998a
Bloody hell! Is that a first?
Sorry, I do not swear.
DJ
On the supposition that there is a hung parliament but Labour can form a legal Minority Government then I agree with you.
[don'tfaintemoticon]
Five years ago, the Tories promised no top down reorganisation of the NHS, and look what they did as soon as they got in.
No Tory can have the moral high ground on election promises.
Yes, POGS.
SNP have said they will not support the Tories. The Tories will not be in a position to form a government, because there will always be a vote of no confidence by the opposition. The Libdems are unlikely to go in coalition with the Tories again, and if they do, there will not be enough MPs to get the queen's speech passed.
The SNP are not going to go against the Labour queen's speech because if they do they will let the Tories in. Clever of Miliband, I think.
If Miliband keeps Trident out of the queen's speech, he will be able to form a government.
POGS On the basis that over half the Scots did not vote for Ms Krankie, would they not be better giving a tactical vote to Labour or Conservative.
DJ
So you believe Miliband and Labour will try running a Minority Government then?
jo1book
I don't see Miliband as an unknown factor at all. He was well established in the Labour Government and has been given more media coverage than any other opposition leader I have ever known. Mainly due to the fact politics is becoming more popular with voters.
As for not watching Question Time last night and asking 'What did he do, do tell'. I will repeat he said categorically Labour will not go into coalition with the SNP, Labour will not go into a Supply and Confidence deal with the SNP, Labour will do no deals with the SNP.
Anniebach
You are missing the point. Miliband , Cameron and Clegg are not in the position of being able to speak to just one nation to gain votes, as you imply. Even Miliband would know that by declaring his guarantee that he will do no deals with the SNP the voters in Wales, England and N. Ireland will expect him to keep to his word. Hence as I said it could be the electorate will view any U Turn as his Nick Clegg Tuition Fee moment, you know where that has left him.
With you durhamjen
I'm with the SNP about this. I hate what the Tories have done to the poor and dispossessed in our society. I hate them even more because they pretend otherwise.
POGS I believe that any party in opposition turns nasty because it is fighting against a certain strength the ruling party has, in that it is known. Miliband is a unknown factor and his supporters feel the need to rally to his cause.
I think you are right about the hate message from the Nats. We are all stronger to-gether and your average voter is getting fed up with them.
Remember Martin Luther King; We live together as brothers or we die together as fools.
P.s. I didn't see the leader's discussion last night. What did Miliband do? Break out into "I'm a virgin"? Do tell.
The Guardian poll tracker shows you all the other parties involved.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker
The SNP has quadrupled its membership since Cameron backtracked on his promises after the referendum. Scotland do not trust him. I heard yesterday that the SNP are on track to win every seat in Scotland.
All Miliband has said is that he is not going to do a deal with the SNP. It means he can try to get what he wants through parliament, and it's up to the SNP whether they support him or not on any vote. It's up to them whether they let the Tories in or not. I thought he'd shot himself in the foot when I first heard him say that, but now I think it's quite clever, if he is chosen to be PM.
One thing I find interesting is the problem of Trident. Labour says it will keep Trident, as do the Tories. Libdems say Trident light. SNP say they will not back Labour on Trident, but the Tories say they will not. Does that make any sense to you?
If you were Milliband what would you say when asked about working with the SNP? you have forty one MP's fighting to hold their seats in Scotland , all aware their chances of retaining their seats is grim. Would you want a leader to say tough luck , your loss, as long as I get into No 10 ?
Good for him.
He can only do it with the backing of the SNP so do you think he will try running a minority government or quickly rubbish his own declaration of No Coalition, No Supply and Confidence, No dealing with the SNP?
jo1book
I don't think it's racism on the part of the English but I do think the fact England is the only country in the UK to not be allowed to speak for itself has certainly come home to roost at this election.
Why is it the likes of the SNP are hailed as heroes by some because they are looking after their fellow nationals, the clue is in their name with the simple word 'National'. Plaid Cymru is the Party of Wales again a nationalist party both obviously wanting more than devolution, they want Independence. Yet if an English person raises such issues or asks why they cannot be allowed to do as the other nationalist parties they are subject to abuse and that's when things get heated up because the playing field is not level.
Some are making it perfectly clear that they detest the Conservative party and anybody who votes for them. That's up to the individual to say what they like, although I find it at odds with the perception the Conservatives are the so called Nasty Party, irony or what.
Hatred of the conservatives certainly seems to be the common denominator for a lot of those who are supporters of Labour, Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. Thank goodness they are in the minority. I think this is another reason why this election is being viewed openly as being aggressive, undemocratic and being seen by those English voters who like to fight with the view that if your party looses at least be magnanimous in defeat as I certainly will be if the party I vote for looses.
I hate, I hate the language of those who say 'If we gang up together we can lock our opposition out , for good'. I use the word not in a personal attack on those who say it but the undemocratic message it means and it doesn't sit well for many voters IMHO.
I haven't found this election at all boring. I think if anything it's more interesting than usual!
I do Yougov surveys, and they have been flying in thick and fast, presumably all of the parties have been commissioning them. They must hate me, because I am refusing to commit. Having read Annie's post, I am tempted to vote for whichever party is the least racist, to try to balance things out a bit.
Too much focus on Milliband's slight trip last night, as if it's some sort of omen for the outcome. Heavens it wasn't in the recent "Madonna" falling off stage league!
whitewash, yes I live in Wales , I have worked / slogged on 14 elections and always quite easy to see which way the wind is blowing apart from 1964. This time is a tornado compared to the previous ones. Never have I encountered such open racism from England voters and a little in Wales too.
Wales has always been strong labour , as Scotland use to be. Plaid Cymru have three seats in Parliment and they will not support the Tories - if they still have three seats next Friday !
The other view of of course that they tory lead will hearten those who like to be on the winning side and demoralise the other parties. Don't forget - John Major's win against poll predictions and the fact that when asked, labour supports will say and the tories will refuse to comment but know how they will vote. Being of a conservative nature, no doubt!
I agree POGS. I do wonder if Liam Byrne would still have written the "we have no money left" note if he know how it was to be resurrected 5 years on in such a damning way!
I thought the audience last night was the best so far, certainly clued up.
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