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All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

POGS Fri 01-May-15 15:01:47

DJ

On the supposition that there is a hung parliament but Labour can form a legal Minority Government then I agree with you.

[don'tfaintemoticon]

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 15:03:05

Bloody hell! Is that a first?
Sorry, I do not swear.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 15:12:37

Another interesting article, which I read after posting the above comments.

opendemocracy.us1.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=9c663f765f28cdb71116aa9ac&id=712314efed&e=3e0fb9998a

POGS Fri 01-May-15 15:21:18

jo1book

No I dislike tactical voting, why sell your soul to the devil.

I firmly believe that if the Scottish voter votes for the SNP then they have a right to take their place in Westminster, that's Democracy.

What I find abhorrant is the rhetoric and dare I say it the naevity of a party/parties who declare they will never vote in agreement with an opposition party. What conclusion can be made without resulting to insults about the reasons behind the bile.

Question.

The SNP and Plaid say they will never, ever, no way vote with the Tories. We are put on a war footing, will they continue with their rhetoric of bugger the good of the UK we just want to stuff one up a Tory?

For arguements sake , The Tories want to raise the funding to Scotland and Wales through the Barnet Formula, would the SNP and Plaid say bugger our voters we won't shift an inch we are just are in it to stuff the Tories.

What a was state of affairs politics has become.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 15:21:50

Is this for you, Tegan, or am I getting mixed up?

theconversationuk.cmail2.com/t/r-l-aokidy-iudkikukhu-d/

For whoever likes betting.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 15:22:22

DJ

May be the last smile

rosesarered Fri 01-May-15 16:27:27

Good post POGS. I think a lot of people in Britain will believe Miliband means there will be no deals at all with the SNP, when it would not be that at all.He may form a minority government, but would then have to fight every day in Parliament to get things supported by the SNP, and if they chose not to on something important, could bring the Government down.What a recipe for disaster!

Maggiemaybe Fri 01-May-15 16:33:40

Ah, a sweepstake (ref durhamjen).....that's one of the very few things I miss now that I'm retired. Even if I did always pull out the no-hoper.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 16:47:57

j52 re 'word on the street' in Scotland - pro or con SNP-depends on the street you're in! They're certainly not popular round our area! Plenty of people extremely unimpressed by their record so far after 7 years in charge at Holyrood. Its independence or bust for them and think of how to plug the £7.6 billion gap later!

Tegan Fri 01-May-15 17:02:12

Can't we just do what the SNP are planning to do and that is to keep having votes until the correct result is obtained confused? Because losing no longer means losing [does it?]. I can't quite believe that we're not thinking about which party will win, but which minority party will pull the strings sad.

GillT57 Fri 01-May-15 17:07:09

The SNP are not popular where my brother lives either, although to listen to Nicola Sturgeon you would think that all of Scotland is with her. Also, although there are no Tory MPs in Scotland, there are many Tory voters, one of the vagaries of the first past the post system, so I would think that her ranting about getting the Tory govt out at any price is a risky strategy. I know that we dont hear every speech from every politician, but I have yet to hear anyone of any of the other parties ask Ms Sturgeon how the SNP plan on squaring the circle. i.e. all of their spending plans, no more austerity etc when the price of crude oil, although rising a little, has almost halved since their calculations at the time of independence referendum. Alex Salmond was basing his predictions of success on $117 per barrel and it is now around the $50 mark, and there are redundancies in the industry.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 17:26:07

pogs re your reply to me 12.10pm regarding to Miliband's tactics re Scotland. I have been reading some of the stuff that dj has been posting and now I agree with what you are saying.
However where we may disagree is the level of leaverage the SNP have, I am now convinced that it will not be so much as has been indicated in the press.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 17:40:16

Whitewave

Thank you. All will be revealed soon won't it.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 17:51:07

Just out of interest for the Tories to win an outright majority they need a swing of 11.1% for Labour to win they need a swing of 4.9%. Don't ask me about the maths I haven't a clue!

GrannyTwice Fri 01-May-15 18:27:06

It really is interesting isn't it? All the possible combinations but I keep thinking about 1992. I lost a bet then and it cost me a lot of money ( I haven't been allowed to bet on GE results since blush . Re NI - at last election there were 8 DUP ( will support Cons as they did John Major). 3 SDLP ( will support Labour) Sinn Fein 5 ( don't turn up) Alliance 1 ( I would guess will support Labour). Re the vexed English votes question , it really is far more complicated than we are being led to believe. Scotland, Wales, NI and London all have devolved powers of one kind or another so all that would have to be sorted out - not just Scotland. Also, there would be many examples where it would not be clear whether an issue was just purely English or not

rosequartz Fri 01-May-15 18:34:14

gillybob Can you imagine an Ed n' Dave "love in"?
In the rose garden we hope! grin

I am fed up now.
I agree with Anniebach, perhaps another election fairly soon as there may well be a hung parliament.

rosequartz Fri 01-May-15 18:42:49

I agree with you again Anniebach (don't faint) that Plaid will not support the Tories; would they go into coalition with Labour at Westminster as they have done in the Assembly or on a vote by vote basis? Have they said? I am losing track.

The Libdems are unlikely to go in coalition with the Tories again
djen have they said that?; I thought the expression was 'The heart of the Tories, the brains of Labour' which would imply to me that they could go either way (as long as they are in power!)

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 18:43:03

Where do you draw the line with England only issues? If you spend millions on a Thatcher museum in England and it comes from the UK budget do we get to vote? Super fast train lines do not help us in any way but the money comes out of uk funds......... Westminster was desperate to keep us and now we are the scum of the earth who should be seen and not heard. All I seem to hear is racist anti Scottish project fear. I thought we were supposed to be "better together"

Tegan Fri 01-May-15 18:46:43

Maybe a lot of people in England felt that Scotland wanting to leave the UK was anti English and were quite hurt by it also sad.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 18:48:48

We are better together. The anti Scottish feeling is a legacy of the ill feeling around the neverendum. Still waiting to hear Scottish economic policy.

rosequartz Fri 01-May-15 18:48:53

Oh dear Dotsmam you are not the scum of the earth and I haven't heard anyone say that in my hearing, even if Nicola Sturgeon is scaring a lot of people in England.

I read an article the other day where she was likened to Maggie Thatcher - diametrically opposed politics, of course, but so similar in so many ways!!

J52 Fri 01-May-15 18:57:40

As I understand from some with a vote in Scotland, they voted No in the referendum, but will vote SNP so that Scotland gets a say in Westminster. As Dotsmam outlines.

Maybe an understanding of Scottish and Welsh political history may help.
I'm not for getting into a heated debate, so good evening one and all. x

Anniebach Fri 01-May-15 19:03:35

rosequartz, I heard earlier Milliband has ruled out a coalition with Plaid and Leanne isn't a happy bunny, haven't heard it confirmed yet. I would be surprised if Plaid took another seat , not surprised if they lost one

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 19:10:04

Well I suppose she is a woman- I am pretty sure that is where the similarities end! Tegen wanting independence has nothing to do with the English, it is a country wanting to put its fate into the hands of its people. At no point was any anti English sentiment expressed by the yes campaign. And as a wee aside the UK is not England but Scotland,Wales and northern Ireland as well. Why is the SNP scaring people in England? Surely racist ukip are much scarier than a socially responsible party.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 19:18:45

SNP are scaring people because they are told to be scared, but reading some stuff today it seems that the SNP will not have the clout that is suggested that they will. So really the scare tactics is all about votes and nothing about politics.