Gransnet forums

News & politics

All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

mcem Fri 01-May-15 19:26:30

With you there Dotsmam.
Contrary to popular belief a second referendum is not first priority.
A progressive, left-of-centre, anti-austerity party is a perfectly viable alternative to what's been on offer until now.
I really believe that a strong SNP voice in Westminster will benefit the whole of the UK.
So significant numbers of Scots voted to stay in the UK, persuaded by the Better Together campaign. Are they now to be told to shut up and put up, Westminster doesn't want to know after all?

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 19:30:38

Definitely all about votes! Promises today and God help you tomorrow! The short termism of politics is so damaging to long term prospects. Candidates lurch from one election to another only.

rosequartz Fri 01-May-15 19:31:57

Well, I suppose Ed M feels a coalition with Plaid would make it difficult to refuse one with the SNP, perhaps he thinks it would set a precedent. It could, however, be the extra seat or two that would make the difference between him forming a government (if that is how it pans out) or not. Difficult one.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 19:32:28

Scots not necessarily persuaded by the Better Together campaign -just plain clear sightedness re the economy. Head over heart!

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 19:32:51

No mcem whatever is said a Scottish vote is no different to my vote in the South of England. Don't forget you are up against a Tory press who are opposed to anything left of Genghis Khan, so ignore all that and enjoy being part of the great UK!!!!

newist Fri 01-May-15 19:36:59

Dotsmam I have never been made to feel that I am "the scum of the earth". nor do I think of my self as "the scum of the earth"

Scooter58 Fri 01-May-15 19:38:44

Plenty of support for SNP in my part of Central Scotland,also amongst NO voters in referendum who will vote SNP next week.

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 19:51:21

Newest. Have you been listening to the likes of Boris Johnston and that plonker Ferage? (Not sure of the spelling there). They are so anti Scots that if they came out with their rubbish about other race they would be arested! I don't think of you or in fact myself as scum, it is how the SNP are being portrayed. We are all getting worked up over something that will all be over bar the making of the bed by this time next week!

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 19:55:04

Scooter- who else can they vote for after project fear? All the lies they told not to mention Labour cuddling up to the Tories( eeewe makes me nauseous just thinking about it!)

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 19:55:20

Guardian has come out in favour of Labour.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 19:57:24

Mind you that is a bit worrying as they came out for the Libs last time and look where that got us!

Ana Fri 01-May-15 20:09:41

The Guardian is pro-Labour? shock

Well, who'd have thunk it?! grin

newist Fri 01-May-15 20:10:25

I sent my postal vote off today, I had been waiting to see if anyone would come canvasing around the doors, I did think rather foolishly that someone would want my vote, I kept waiting for someone to knock on my door and ask me to vote for them, nobody came, so for the first time in my life I have voted tactically, in the hopes of a certain party not being elected.

Scooter58 Fri 01-May-15 20:22:25

Dotsmam,my thoughts exactly.

Tegan Fri 01-May-15 20:25:45

The Labour Party say they will stop some of Goves ideas being implemented [ie changes in curriculum and the exam structure yet again] which is why I have now decided to vote Labour. I think anyone with children or grandchildred in state schools need to think very carefully about who they are going to vote for.

mcem Fri 01-May-15 20:38:38

Sorry Jane10. I still believe that significant numbers of Scots ( those who were swithering!) voted No because of the Better Together campaign either because they eere afraid or because they believed the empty promises and now feel betrayed.
In the aftermath, many joined the SNP and many who voted no will now vote SNP in the GE.
Admittedly there were many who were always going to vote no and will now vote for a party other than SNP. That's democracy.
You say clear-headed. Maybe some were clear in their thoughts and never wavered.
I say many were afraid and now feel betrayed.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 21:03:47

Fine- just still waiting to hear how SNP plan to fill the black financial hole. Time for the evasion to stop. Why do they never answer that question? Because they just don't know, don't care or cant answer so just change the subject? Not much point in my reading this thread any more as we will quite simply never agree.

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 21:08:05

Mcem. You are 100% right. If I had voted no on the back of the lies and empty promises I would feel totally betrayed. If i was a Labour supporter who could get over the fact that Labour were the Tories lap dogs during the referendum how could they get over Miliband saying he would rather not be in government than in a coalition with the SNP, so he would rather another stint of smarmy cammy than work with the Scots! Better together - aye right!

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 21:12:57

Tegan I guess if I was living in England I might feel the same as you re education as it seems the going to hell in a handcart down there. While the Scottish system is far from being perfect we are not looking for ways of privatizing all the better schools which is how I read what is happening with you.

Scooter58 Fri 01-May-15 21:15:16

Nail on the head Dotsmam,Labour being Tory lapdogs during the referendum,the straw that broke the camels back for many,many Scots Labour supporters.

Dotsmam Fri 01-May-15 21:16:39

Jane 10 what financial black hole are you talking about? We are discussing the general election and if we very person in Scotland voted SNP they could still not form a government. The referendum is past any perceived black hole is of no consequence.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 23:01:19

Any black hole is of the Tories' making, and it's in the NHS.

Here are a few more Tory lies exposed.

www.opendemocracy.net/ournhs/paul-evans/nhs-privatisation-soars-500-in-last-year-finds-indepth-new-study

FarNorth Fri 01-May-15 23:32:12

I don't have any problem with labour campaigning for 'better together', along with the tories, if they genuinely believed that it was the best option for all.
I do have a problem with all the back-tracking on promises and the insults to scots, that we have heard from both of those parties.
I certainly have a problem with Ed Milliband standing back and ushering David Cameron into No 10, if that is what happens.

FarNorth Fri 01-May-15 23:36:28

Whether or not England has the right to govern itself, is the responsibility of the Westminster government.
Westminster allows the Scottish, Irish and Welsh parliaments to exist, and could retract permission for those if it chose to do so.
Or it could decide to set up a similar English government, with each of the four governments being responsible for its own taxes & spending.

The SNP would be all in favour of that, I should think, and would then pose no "danger" to England.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 23:59:11

Strange thing is that not many people seem to have picked up on Cameron saying that he will not deal with any party that does not agree to a referendum on the EU. That leaves him with being able to do a deal with four maximum UKIP MPs.