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All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 10:04:41

PR may be back on the table sometime in the future, as it looks like coalition governments may become the norm anyway.That was always the reason given against PR, that you would end up in coalition and not one party in power.Even without it, that is what we are getting.Coalition can be a good thing, but it does depend on the parties involved.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 10:04:21

I said persuade, roses. I assume you know what that means. Isn't that what all politics is about, trying to persuade others to think your way. I try and persuade by asking people to look at the facts and figures. Nothing wrong with that.

Granjura, that's first past the post, which is what both Labour and Tory wanted. The irony is that if they had had PR, the Tories would have a majority this time. Shot themselves in the foot again, as they did with Scottish devolution.

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 10:03:20

I am just puzzled that because someone looks at things from a different political perspective to another another person it constitutes 'errors of their thinking'.
It sounds suspiciously like an invitation for brainwashing.
It is not as black and white as that, if it was there would be no floating voters.

There is nothing worse than someone saying ' allow me to point out the error of your ways' (or thinking).

granjura Mon 04-May-15 09:56:37

For me, it is totally wrong that people in so many constituencies will vote and their vote will end up in the bin as if they didn't exist.

granjura Mon 04-May-15 09:55:32

Golly how glad we are not to be able to vote! Just would not know what to do. I could never get involved in politics in the UK- as the First Past the Post system meant our vote would always end up in the bin- as we lived in a staunchly solid Tory area. We swayed from Lib Dem to labour- and voted Lib Dem at local level as our Lib Dem councillor was very active, approachable and really effective at local level....

Selfishly, we will do much better personally if the Tories win- but I just could not vote for them, seeing what they have done to the NHS, Education and Social Services- just could NOT.

Being on holiday for 2 weeks with very true blue Tories for 2 weeks meant I had to button my lip (hey, ho... ;) )- a lot of the time. Of course very rich people who can opt out of NHS, opt out of school system and went to the best Public Schools and sent their kids and grand-kids to same + do not know anyone who has ever needed social help- cannot fathom why so many people are suffering so! And tax avoidance by the million and mansion tax on their multiple properties worth many millions will be more important to them.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 09:53:20

DJen I did not say that I was low profile on politics, but that a lot of others are.
Eloethan I don't agree with you at all, the Lib Dems will have done all they could behind the scenes to implement their policies.Of course we look at facts and figures, but to continually bludgeon people with them endlessly on here is what is boring.DJen says "this is a chance for ordinary people to try and pursuade other ordinary people of the errors of their thinking".this is telling anyone that does not agree with your politics that they are wrong.Which of course is what you think.Others think differently.

GrannyTwice Mon 04-May-15 09:49:33

Soon - have you the evidence base for that ?

soontobe Mon 04-May-15 08:47:17

And ironically, a worse economy affects labour voters jobs the worst.
Labour voters tend to work in the public sector, where job cuts and jobs not being created are happening big time.

soontobe Mon 04-May-15 08:42:59

the Labour complaint is that the mess they created is not being cleared up quickly enough.

Gosh, how true.

Eloethan Mon 04-May-15 08:22:26

rosesarered Perish the thought that we actually look at boring facts and figures to reach an opinion about something.

When Nick Clegg entered into coalition discussions with David Cameron, he was in a position of strength. Given that he had made a pledge that the Lib Dems would abolish tuition fees and a number of people would have voted for him on that basis, he could have made that one of the conditions of his entering into coalition. You may well be happy with the fairly easy ride the Lib Dems have given the Conservatives - I guess many people who voted Lib Dem previously are not so happy. Time will tell.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 23:47:53

I do not pretend to keep a low profile as far as politics is concerned. You were the one that said people on the centre/right do. People like you, you mean?

Ana Sun 03-May-15 23:26:56

The last Labour government left us in the doo-doo, the Conservatives and Lib Dems are getting us out of it,it could well take years and I'm sure it will, the Labour complaint is that the mess they created is not being cleared up quickly enough.

I certainly agree with you there, roses.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 23:25:53

DJen, 'the errors of their thinking' !

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 23:22:53

Well, you certainly don't keep a low profile DJen.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 23:21:49

I am a Lib Dem supporter, but think they have worked really well with the Conservatives. all this talk of Nick Clegg 'selling his soul' is ridiculous, he did what he had to do as the smaller party in power, especially once he and other Lib Dems realised there was no money for tuition fees.I hope that they will be supporting whichever larger party gets in, but the Conservatives would be my first choice.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 23:16:35

That's keeping a low profile, is it, roses?

Everybody only gets one vote, no matter how erudite they are politically. We are constantly told that politicians do not listen to ordinary people. This is a chance for ordinary people to try and persuade other ordinary people of the errors in their thinking.
Just saying fingers crossed for a conservative victory is no way to try and persuade others.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 23:14:10

In fact, all cuts will continue, no matter which party gets into power.It has to happen.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 23:11:31

Of course, it's up to Anyone on here if they want to explain their reasons/post links etc but as you already know, anyone here of the centre/right tends to keep a low profile because they know there will be others of the leftist persuasion, constantly demanding facts and figures, which gets boring.It's not up to us to try and explain why we will be voting a certain way, and there are better and more erudite people political journalists, and pundits on tv radio and the newspapers to consult for that.
the last Labour government left us in the doo-doo, the Conservatives and Lib Dems are getting us out of it,it could well take years and I'm sure it will, the Labour complaint is that the mess they created is not being cleared up quickly enough.
cuts to benefits will continue under a Labour administration.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 22:26:35

I agree with you, FarNorth. Just to say fingers crossed for a conservative victory is just inviting the question why. So why shouldn't she tell us, roses?
After all, she wasn't worried about saying it in the first place.

FarNorth Sun 03-May-15 21:49:33

Why shouldn't nigglynellie, or anyone else, explain (briefly) what they think is good about a party they say they support?
I think the Conservatives and LibDems have done a terrible job and have greatly increased misery for many thousands of people because of their benefit cuts and sanctions.
I think that any party that aims to boost the economy rather than restrict it, would be a good choice.
I'd like anyone who thinks it would be a good idea to vote conservative to give me a reason or two why I should want to do that.

soontobe Sun 03-May-15 21:35:39

Only 4 more days until we should know a lot more.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 20:57:02

Looking at the polls again today, it's still too close to call, anything could happen on Thursday. however, the world will still keep turning whatever happens.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 20:55:11

Far north, why should nigglynelly or anyone give you their reasons for voting? we all have different points of view on here on what would be best for the country.Perhaps some people feel the economy is too important to be trusted to anyone other than the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

rosesarered Sun 03-May-15 20:51:36

Yes, nigglynelly, I am with you there, hoping for a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition again.That would be my ideal first choice. second choice would be labour and Lib Dem coalition.Anything else would be pretty rubbish.

FarNorth Sun 03-May-15 20:43:36

nigglynellie you say "fingers crossed for a conservative victory". Can you tell me (briefly) what you think is good about them?