Corbyn and No Confidence

That's ridiculous, POGS. Are you saying that no poll is to be trusted unless every single person in the country is asked what party they are affiliated to?
Even you must see that dioes not make sense. If lots of them say mind yourown business, it invalidates the poll, does it?

Giles Fraser has said something interesting. The Blairites are after Corbyn now because the Chilcott report is coming out soon.

Here are some FACTS

lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

12,369 were asked how they had just voted. Their answers are facts, although it is possible they lied.

12,369 is quite a big number for a poll, so it is possible to transfer those results to the whole within a few percentage points.

The results were in line with every single poll and survey which done about voting intentions over the last few months and the work done by Ford and Goodwin, which has used millions of pieces of data. There is no reason to question them.

That could be true, durhamjen. However, weeks ago I read somewhere that they had decided not to act before the referendum.

My constituency narrowly voted Leave. The prediction was <3% majority for Leave.

In the end 50.68% voted to leave and 49.32 voted to remain, which is a 1.36% majority, so the prediction was correct.

How did they know? Nobody ever asked me directly.

So no, your little bit doesn't matter unless you sign up to it. Anyone can, you know.
or not

now - are we talking exit polls or are we talking internet polls or telephone polls?

They are just polls, not actual statistics

12,369 is quite a big number for a poll, so it is possible to transfer those results to the whole within a few percentage points.
A few percentage points is what was in the result though.

So the future of the UK rests on a couple of percentage points, and the polls could be a couple of percentage points out as stated in a post above.

You really don't seem to understand economics very well either.
It is not an exact science

The thing is, you do have a choice.
You can carry on saying nobody asked you so the polls aren't accurate, or they must be skewed in some way.
Or you can join yougov, give them your details and know that you are included, thus skewing the results in your favour.

38 degrees also do a poll. All it means is a headcount. You give them what information you want. Same as lots of other groups.
If you do not give information, you cannot then complain that nobody asks you.

Jalima, just heard Campbell saying that the Brexiters got it wrong. They expected Cameron to win by 51/49%, not enough to lose but enough to damage him.

As an economist who was once a market research manager I am steering clear of the current discussion but I am getting quite excited about the No Confidence vote.

I have been out all day so have only just what has been happening in my absence from my computer. To my delight I find that Jeremy is at last going to do what I expected of him.

When he was elected I truly thought that here was an opportunity for him to confound all his critics and prove an inspirational Labout Party leader. Failing that I thought his leadership would contribute to the gaiety of the nation, but until now it seemed that all my hopes were being confounded.

Then today I woke to hear that Hilary Benn had been sacked and now that 9, or is it 10, cabinet ministers have resigned. Everyone is predicting that under the current voting system Jeremy will be voted back into the leadership position and that may lead to split in the Labour Party

Now we hear that Nichola S may try to veto Brexit and anyway, if the Labour Party splitss she may have enough seats to become the official opposition.

I must say I am emjoying all this. It is certsinly adding to the gaiety of the nation.

We are where we are, we should all work together to make it work. Corbin looks a dishevelled mess, mumbles and certainly not a player on the world stage, but he won't be in post for long.

What about the other 30 Million who voted.

durhamjen and POGS. I wonder whether you are both talking at cross purposes?

As in yes the polls are fact because they are what they are.
But that does not mean that they are accurate, as in a poll is only a guide to what might happen in an actual future vote.

So you are both right?
[assuming I have understood you both correctly, which I might not have done, in which case I back out the door]

daphnedill, the result was 51.9% Leave, 48.1% remain, which is a difference of 3.8%.

Oops, you are talking about your constituency! Sorry, didn't notice that.

@Jalima

I know a few percentage points make a difference, which is why the pollsters were saying it was too close to call. The Ashcroft statistics are based on an exit poll and don't make a prediction. They give hard data about the people who voted either way, including age, occupation, etc. That's all. They couldn't have given a prediction, because they couldn't have known how many people in each group voted. Nevertheless, the figures are accurate and they can state that X% of such and such a group voted which way.

My comment about economists was not to do with polling. Economists are very good at describing what has happened, but they can never have a crystal ball. Nevertheless, they are trained to understand risk and trends, etc. Anything they say should be heard in that context. They are not spouting rubbish.

"POGS" it was John McDonnell on the Andrew Neill show this morning who said 7 out of 10 Labour voters voted for Remain. I can't find anything to back that up and the Ashcroft poll appears to contradict John McDonnell.

I think Tom Watson made his move to replace Jeremy Corbyn today by not pledging his support for the Labour leader.

John McDonnell has said he will never stand for the leadership, but his history with Irish politics make him virtually unacceptable and unelectable.

Tom Watson has told Corbyn that the parliamentary party has no faith in him, and he should go.

Tom told it like it is.

Just heard someone say Jeremy Corbyn is an honest, decent, principled man, not a Boris Johnson.

Well said.

Who rebelled against his party 300 times plus and made life as difficult as possible for those who had to work with him, a fellow traveller of terrorists, he is indeed an honest decent principled man. He has had his chance and he has muffed it.

I have no time for either but in a tight spot I would sooner have Boris on my side than Corbyn, Corbyn would pretend to be on your side, but let you down as soon as he could see an opportunity to save his own skin, even if it meant sacrificing yours. If Boris committed himself, he would be far more likely to stand by you to the end..

The trouble is he's too "nice" - to be a top politician. Seems you need to be ruthless.

This is interesting. His new top team are people who have had jobs outside politics.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was forced to make new appointments to his shadow cabinet after a spate of resignations yesterday (June 26) – and seems to have taken the opportunity to sweep away the ex-spads and former researchers.

For example, Clive Lewis, the new shadow defence secretary, is an Afghan War veteran.

The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, David Anderson, was a coal miner for 25 years.

The shadow education secretary, Pat Glass, worked in education for people with special needs.

Kate Osamor, shadow international development secretary, worked in a GP practice.

Shadow environment, food and rural affairs secretary Rachel Maskell worked in the NHS for 20 years.

Rebecca Long-Bailey, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, worked as a solicitor.

And Andy McDonald, shadow transport secretary, worked as a lawyer.

Just the sort of people we want in politics, instead of those who have left who were nearly all political spads and researchers. Except for Chris Bryant who was a former priest and Conservative Party member.

At the current rate of resignations, in 12 days time Corbyn will be leading a party of one.

i2.wp.com/voxpoliticalonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/160627-Labour-coup-planned-in-April.jpg?w=1366