Brexit watch

Day6

daphnedill It would be interesting to know how much extra a, say £3,000 Italian sofa would cost. If they are dealing in quality furniture, most people will pay the extra.

That's not what the link claims at all:

"The GfK survey was carried out between 30 June and 5 July to capture the mood of consumers immediately after the referendum.

"Our analysis suggests that in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, sectors like travel, fashion and lifestyle, home, living, DIY and grocery are particularly vulnerable to consumers cutting back their discretionary spending," said Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK.

The percentage of people who believe prices will rise rapidly in the next 12 months jumped to 33% from 13% in June.

The survey also picked up regional differences. Consumer confidence in the north of England saw a 19 point drop and fell by 11 points in Scotland. The south of England dropped by just two points.

A separate survey indicated that retailers were already beginning to feel the impact.

The BDO's monthly High Street Sales Tracker showed a strong start to June, with sales growing 3.8% year on year. That decreased throughout the month and by the end of June, after the referendum, sales had fallen by 8.1% compared with last year.

The first official economic figures from the Office for National Statistics that will cover periods after the referendum will start being released in August."

Anybody running a multi-million pound business which is heavily reliant on imports would be totally stupid not to take any notice. It's not just their livelihood, but 60 people's jobs too.

Yes, that's very interesting daphnedill but I haven't been referring to that link, I've been referring to a a report on the news.

"Anyone running a multi-million pound business which is heavily reliant on imports would be totally stupid not to take any notice" of course, but you don't have to be running a multi-million pound business, anyone running any business needs to have their eye on the ball.

It's not just our livelihood either, we don't have 60 peoples jobs to consider, but we do have 8.

obione The internet was started originally to connect universities all over the world. DD2 is a research scientist and being in germany her future is secure as much as any research and the grants that pay for it are secure.

I can't see any of this new money coming to the UK through Brexit being spent on research. There won't be any left when the NHS has been fixed. Students doing PH.Ds spend alot of time waiting for decisions about their research whether it is still necessary etc.Out of the EU this will now be worse.
Welshwife I hope your GS manages to finish!

Thank you Margaret. He tells me he is fine as the money was all paid for his bursary up front and he is drip fed it each month. He is working on a steel production project for Tata. He did another project for them when doing his BSc.

@petra

I've just looked at their website. They don't sell sofas. Most of it is high end lighting and accessories. There's a beanbag for £635.

They know far more about their business than I do and I'm sure they're going to have to play it by ear. All I'm saying is that exchange rates have already hit them, because they don't keep much stock. It's imported directly and goes to the customer.

MargaretX Students doing PhDs already have funding in place for the 3 years, dont they? You can correct me if I am wrong?

And if they are already doing PhDs, their research path is decided too?

No they do not necessarily have funding in place for the whole four years. Many companies do not pay up front - just some do - Tata have proven over the years to be a very good company to work for and also for students and do pay upfront - the Universities invest/keep the money and give it to the students monthly and so I assume make a little on the interest on the money - not that they would have made much the last few years.
A PhD is usually for a particular piece of research and bursary is for a set length of time.

Then you don't understand my point Gracesgran. That is certainly possible but I will try harder.

An opposition may try to 'overthrow' a government but what they are doing is denying the general electorate who democratically voted against 'them' the right to choose. That is tantamount a Coo, a Dictatorship. Most certainly narcissistic and it is gutter politics.

An parliament can only vote against a government if the numbers compute and the numbers are put there by the voters. It is a little over the top to call that a coup. Dictatorship? How does that work when another government is voted in. Narcissistic - not really relevant or at least I can't see why and gutter politics - a rather harsh view of people fighting for what they believe. I would prefer more consensual politics but we have the system we have.

Why is it some people cannot accept that my vote is as worth while as theirs? A democratic vote takes place, the percentages are counted, the victor governs.

I do accept your vote is worth the same as mine - at the moment you use it - but it has always been the case that the discussion and persuasion continue as soon as we hear the outcome. That is nothing new.

If we go along the lines some would have us the government would be kicked out every other week and possibly anarchy would ensue. The latter I fear would be a trophy for some to aim for.
We really wouldn't and I don't think your last statement is true of any politician with two brain cells to rub together.

An Oxford logician, Jeffrey Ketland, has laid out perfectly in this essay, "Elite technocracy vs Liberal democracy" my reasons for voting Leave. His arguments, though less well expressed in my head or on GN threads, are what I've been thinking.

Below is part of his conclusion. He, btw, inclined more towards Remain although he says he didn't vote in the end. I love his detachment and logical analysis.

"The Leave side, represents the anti-authoritarian tradition of liberal democracy, while the Remain side represents the authoritarian illiberal tradition of elite technocracy. What occurred on 23 June 2016 was a kind of revolt, with significant support from ordinary working-class voters, against an undemocratic supranational authority, to which they did not consent. Perhaps the European project will flounder, and even begin to unravel, because its underlying political philosophy was never that of democracy or liberalism, but rather that of an elite managerial technocracy. Or perhaps the shock of the Brexit vote and subsequent negotiations will lead to democratic reforms.

As mentioned above, it may be correct that, in economic terms, a decision to leave the EU would be unwise, and it may well encourage nationalist sentiments. However, that decision was an expression of an anti-authoritarian, democratic and indeed liberal outlook. In the long term, I believe that the most significant outcome is a weakening of a non-accountable, technocratic superstate, and a strengthening of liberal democracy."

I was certainly never saying 'leave' didn't have a point of view or even several Bags. My argument would be with those who keep saying "we have had the vote and that is it, set in stone". It isn't.

I agree that the arguments presented by the official 'remain' side were almost entirely around the economics with a little bit of 'peace' thrown in and the leave campaign seemed to be about meaning in peoples lives.

I think both sides did the voters a disservice as there were 'meaning' issues felt by those who wanted to remain which were poorly presented and the economic issues that were not faced up to by those presenting the 'leave' points. This then made presenting a positive economic picture for leaving very difficult.

I agree with that general outlook, gg, I'm just happy to have found an intelligent 'endorsement' of my own feelings on the overall issue. For me the most important thing was always democracy. At least I can rest assured my logic and my values weren't trash.

I mean the general outlook you just presented.

Please explain your second and third sentence GG - am I correct in my reading of it that you think the result of the referendum will be overturned?

We may have agreed on an overall view of how those leading the campaigns presented them Bags but I am really not sure we have the same view of democracy. You never know though - we may get there in the end

Anya I have no idea what you mean. I re-read the last two sentences of my last post which I assume are what you are referring to, and they both seem very clear to me. Not a lot of point in me repeating myself and just saying the same thing again.

No GG when I refer to 2nd and 3rd sentences I mean those that come after your first sentence. Not talking about your 'last two sentences' or I would have said 'your last two sentences'

Ordinal numbers 1st then 2nd followed by 3rd

Would you like me yo copy and paste them perhaps?

Perhaps you're confusing sentences with paragraphs????

Petra- 'most' people can't afford to pay so much more for what is already so expensive !

We know lots of people who have put purchases, renovating plans and holidays on hold since last week.

We've cancelled out new kitchen and are thinking about considering the long haul holiday we've been waiting for for many years. On hold for the moment.

Watching "This Week"

Portillo who was an ardent Brexiters, admitted that the UK is in a very perilous place. That there is no plan, that one of the Tory candidates is totally untested and that the Tory government totally cocked (my words) it up.

granjura if you were buying high end goods and your supplier said: sorry it's another £100/ £200 you would still buy.

We have to get beyond this nonsense that those who voted out of the EU are slightly inferior to those who voted to remain.
My acquaintances who voted out are teachers,lawyers,self employed,unemployed,young,old,professional and manual workers etc etc.
Exactly the same sort of mix as remain voters.

This evening I had a long conversation with a teacher friend who voted to remain,as she could not make a definite choice.
Since reflecting on the vote she is beginning to see it as an opportunity to make positive changes.

We hear much about those who voted Brexit with regrets.We do not hear about those who voted to remain but are now willing to accept the leave vote.

@petra

I'll tell the people I know that you know more about their business than they do!

The point is that even if the customers still buy, they're going to be paying an extra 10% and eventually they'll have less money to spend on other goods or less money saved. There is less money in the economy, so somewhere along the line, there's less money to pay for jobs.

@ Granny2016

That might be the case for the people you know, but it's not the case nationally that the people who voted Leave are the same mix as those who voted Remain. In fact, we've seen plenty of evidence even here on GN that it's not true.