Brexit watch

The thought of being tied hand and foot for eternity to a federal state of Europe is for me quite unacceptable and well worth the sacrifice of a new kitchen and a long haul holiday!
This federal state with its faceless, unelected beaurocrats, and its window dressing parliament whilst benign is fine, but the day could, as history has taught us, come when this benign organisation could be run by people who are anything but fine leading to enormous upset, which we would not only be helplessly embroiled in, but powerless to help over. Already we've seen the dictatorial attitude by stronger countries towards their weaker partners, not only financially, but also concerning the plight of the refugees. Closer and closer ties with this juggernaut is imo in the long term, bad news. Trading partners and free movement of people is fine, closer integration? I don't think so.

In my family are two NHS consultants, a GP, a financial analyst, QC manager of a large food warehouse and the head of IT architecture for a construction firm. They ALL voted to leave. I don't think any of these match the profile given to leavers by the outraged remainers.

I can name people like that too Ceesnan who voted to Leave.

I'm sure there is anecdotal evidence that there are a variety of individuals on both sides. When you look at the demographics of "leave" and "remain" areas that tells a different story, however, which is an interesting sociological phenomenon. High "leave" areas tend to be more economically deprived than high "remain" areas. We all know people who do not fit this demographic, but you can't deny the underlying social and economic issues which affected the outcome.

If you mean that the majority of poor and disadvantaged were of the opinion the the EU hadn't done much to improve their lot in life, then I might agree with that Suzied

The poor and disadvantaged have plenty of factors to blame for their plight - successive British governments with austerity measures, selling off British industries and assets to foreign companies, immigrants seemingly getting a better deal than them, voting against the EU one way of protesting against their feelings of hopelessness- it doesn't matter if things get worse as things can't get worse for us.

Yes, you are correct that the EU didn't protect them/us against any of the of the above,

Of course there will always be exceptions to broadbrush generalisations about the age/socio-economic class/education/professional status/ motivation/rationale behind any vote, referendum or General Election.
That is why many of us over 65s take issue at being branded selfish by the younger generation just as many of them are equally angry at being labelled feckless.
Twas ever thus.

Week 2 after Brexit

Economic report in Guardian.

Pound v dollar
On 24th June pound fell to a 31 year low against the dollar. It steadied somewhat for a few days, but it has begun to slip again. It is thought that sterling's fate is very bound up with Plan "B" and whether a free trade set up is negotiated.

Pound v euro
Pound down by more than 10% against the euro. Exports have benefited from this. Imports however will stoke inflation by rising food prices. Rising food prices always hit the poorest most.

FTSE 100
The FTSE rallied immediately before the vote as it was thought that the vote would be remain. After the vote leave the index slumped, but rallied after Mark Carney was forced to step in. The FTSE however is not a true reflection of the U.K. economy. Most of the companies represented earn their income in dollars.

FTSE 250
This index is more domestically focuses. Unlike the 100 this index of UK domestic companies like Virgin, Sports Direct have not recovered all their losses. This is a better indicator of what is happening to the UK economy.

Banking Shares
FTSE 350 down to 11%. This indicates the worry about the economic outlook and the banks profitability.

Gilts
These government bonds have been in high demand as investors seek a safe haven for their money. This of course means that interest payouts have dropped to near zero. This means that people are willing to accept a near zero payout in order to keep their money safe.

So how does that all impact on the rest of us?

This week a consumer confidence survey reported one of the biggest falls in its history.

Jobs and earnings
Steep fall in job vacancies.
Down by almost a half in the week following the vote.

Prices
More expensive to import.
Tech industry already hit.
Chocolate feeling the heat!!!!

Savings
Interest rates in free fall.

Property and mortgages
Anecdotal evidence only at this stage.
Estate agents reporting falling enquirers. Prices being cut by up to 10%.
Builders pausing projects.
Mortgage rates beginning to fall.

Reply to second referendum petition:-

"The EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015. The Act was scrutinised and debated in Parliament during its passage and agreed by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The Act set out the terms under which the referendum would take place, including provisions for setting the date, franchise and the question that would appear on the ballot paper. The Act did not set a threshold for the result or for minimum turnout.

As the Prime Minister made clear in his statement to the House of Commons on 27 June, the referendum was one of the biggest democratic exercises in British history with over 33 million people having their say. The Prime Minister and Government have been clear that this was a once in a generation vote and, as the Prime Minister has said, the decision must be respected. We must now prepare for the process to exit the EU and the Government is committed to ensuring the best possible outcome for the British people in the negotiations.

Foreign and Commonwealth Office"

No surprises there. I still think that the decision was made on some very shaky assumptions, but it is not reversible, so that is how it is.

Isn't it about time that we (both here and in the country as a whole) stopped throwing blame backwards and forwards and saying that people were either too stupid to understand the question or too blinded by xenophobia and/or self-interest to think straight?

The team handling the withdrawal now has to negotiate the best possible outcome, and needs to have the backing of a united country, not two halves at war with each other.

A second referendum was never really a runner, but that doesn't mean that the arguments are negated as a result.

“Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand." Matthew 12:22-28

My argument now would focus on securing the single market, and trying to secure our economic future. The trouble is that this may well be secured at a financial cost, and accepting the EU regulation already in force that we have been involved in drawing up. Future regulation will not be in our remit.

Exactly elegran

I didn't have problems between sentences or paras Anya (how rude!) I just could not see what you were talking about as I had written

My argument would be with those who keep saying "we have had the vote and that is it, set in stone". It isn't.

which does not say

"the result of the referendum will be overturned?"

as you suggested, so I could only think you were referring to something else.

Oh, by the way Anya, I am off out for the day so you might want to sharpen your claws on someone else rather than wasting your time on me.

vimeo.com/25921512

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has issued some information about the areas which receive EU structural and investment funding and is urging the government to have a plan to protect it.

www.jrf.org.uk/press/uk-government-needs-plan-boost-poorest-regions-following-brexit?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=JRF+weekly+round-up+wc+4th+July+2016&utm_content=JRF+weekly+round-up+wc+4th+July+2016+CID_114bfc9bdd4022b052db502728843c2b&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Read+Story

My vote wasn't anything to do with stupidity, or finance or immigration, it was purely a deep concern as to what this federation could turn into in the future. Churchill warned against Hitler, but no one listened, ditto Stalin. There seems a perception that these monsters will never again exist in Europe, why not?!! Already Russia is sabre rattling, as they perceive NATO as weak. Sanctions mean nothing to Putin, we need to be very wary as there is more to worry about than finance.

Niggly, yes, this is why I voted remain. A united federation of Europe was indeed Churchills dream- to safeguard us from futher wars. To be strong together against the aggessors.

Anya 'If you mean that the majority of poor and disadvantaged were of the opinion the the EU hadn't done much to improve their lot in life, then I might agree with that Suzied'

do you truly believe that the poor and disadvataged will be better off now after Brexit? Or much worse?

But also now to work together on medical and environmental research and more, to work together on fighting climate change, to work together to fight terrorism, to work together in insuring products we buy are safe, and that workers are treated fairly, to work together to try and find solutions for the real challenges this world is facing and so much more- I think it was worth fighting for- and always will be.

I'm sure pollsters and academics will study the voting patterns for months/years to come, but the results show a more complicated pattern than people are suggesting. It would appear from the Ashworth exit poll (and other polls) that Labour voters generally supported Remain, while Conservative voters supported Leave. This is consistent with London, Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool voting Remain, although it would be expected that Labour voters are generally poorer than Conservative ones. My county, Essex, is (apart from some pockets of deprivation, particularly on the coast) not poor and most areas have access to employment in London. Nevertheless, it is solidly Conservative (with a history of BNP and Ukip) and voted Leave.

What evidence daphnedill ?
The 'evidence' we are presented with is supposition based on a sample selection,as with polls.
Even were polling card numbers tracked,there is no way of determining the situation of each voter.

If the poor and disadvantaged were of the opinion that the EU hadn't done much to improve their lives, have a look at the link I posted above. Wales and Cornwall receive huge amounts of EU funding per capita, followed by the North East and Tees Valley. I hope that the government will continue to provide the funding, but there is absolutely no guarantee.

@Granny2016

Sorry, there will be sampling error, but I don't believe that every single poll and survey is that wrong, especially as the answers people gave are consistent with hearsay.

The theory that the poor and downtrodden all voted Leave has far less evidence.