Brexit4

I couldn't agree with you more Day6 and Ana. I too am getting on with it as are DD and DS, both remainers, and am not at all anxious. I am still totally convinced that the UK will flourish long term, outside the EU, and if asked, would vote exactly the same again tomorrow.

Because we have to put our trust in them now, or turn into basket-cases! Expert opinion changes all the time, and different experts have different opinions.

Ana,

If they weren't trusted before the referendum why should they be trusted after it?

'Chancellor Philip Hammond has told MPs that doom-laden Treasury forecasts about Brexit earlier this year have proved to be invalid.

Mr Hammond's predecessor George Osborne had warned in April that households would end up £4,300 a year worse off as a result of a Leave vote.

The current Chancellor was grilled by the Commons Treasury Select Committee on whether this remained Government policy.

He told MPs that some of the assumptions behind the report "have already proved to be invalid".'

Sky News 19.10.16

The article goes on, all in the same vein...

Remainers would say that, wouldn't they?

The details will be sorted by analysts, lawyers and economists and in them I trust.

It's a shame that more people didn't trust them before the referendum.

Well said, Day6, my thoughts entirely.

I couldn't whitewave

Whitewave. - "There is a high level of anxiety in the country about what is going to happen."

Really? I am not in the least anxious. Amongst the people I know I'd say there was perhaps curiosity, and still a sense of relief that we won't be subsidising the EU for much longer.

There is always lots of hard left spin on any thread about Brexit. Watch the BBC news too if you want bias.

We are only the little people remember and we have lived through all sorts of financial ups and downs in my lifetime. In 1977 I had to take any work going because my sector of industry was in crisis. We have survived them and have had to tighten belts many times, whether we are governed by Conservatives or the Labour Party.

We'll survive Brexit too, and ten years from now it will be something we lived through and we'll have adjusted, as will businesses, traders, employers, workers. The details will be sorted by analysts, lawyers and economists and in them I trust.

The referendum was given to the people. This is their will whether Remainers like it or not.

I'd say there's more of an air of a brighter future amongst those I associate with. The charming Polish man who delivered a skip here this morning was quite optimistic that he'd be able to stay..he didn't seem terribly anxious. In fact he was asking me about a house round the corner which is for sale. he hadn't been to our neighbourhood before but he liked the area. he said he and his friends from Poland had created a house-renovation business. neither did the lady I queued with yesterday in the bank. She's just been offered well-paid work as a Romanian interpreter/advocate. Overseas students have arrived in their masses and just seem to be getting on with it, enjoying life in the UK.

Aren't the majority of us just getting on with it?

I know I am. I suppose you have to be a bit of a political animal to want to know the ins and outs of our transactions and no one knows for sure how it's going to work out.

I have stopped taking the Guardian and now read i for a more balanced view of Brexit. Guardian writers and readers really do seem to want the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse to descend upon us. They'd be delighted if they did it would seem because they want to be proved right.I have never read such doom-mongering.

The nitty-gritty of it all today will be replaced by another bit of nitty-gritty tomorrow. And it will be awful, absolutely awful if we read the predictions of Remainers.

Think what fun we could have had if Boris had become PM.

Interesting to hear that Johnson had to be assisted over his understanding as to how the single market works.

He should have come on here every gran could have told him.

I had expected a reply at some point on the last thread POGS, no question of "within four hours".
I am well aware of the fluctuations of the pound and indeed in 2008 we were almost at parity for a brief period. We have all our finances on spreadsheet and are able to model instantly the effect of the exchange rate to adjust our budgets.
However in the eleven years we have lived here we have not seen such sustained low forecasts for the pound. The "flash crash" was over in minutes and is not relevant, but these low levels look likely to drag on for years as Brexit is negotiated.
They reflect how the money markets view the negative impact of the Brexit process and Brexit itself on the UK economy.

Whitewave 08.10

"The ONS is definitely trying to play down the effect of Brexit, but they will find that they have few supporters in their conclusion except the Brexiters."

The fall in a currency will lead to price increases

Price increases will cause a rise in inflation

Most of our clothing is imported.

All petrol is imported. Oil is used in hundreds of products.

Food prices will definitely rise as a result of the fall in the value of sterling. Food inflation is one of the most damaging things to economic growth."

Yes , very true . I do not share your thought over the Office for National Statistics however.

What I have been trying to say through my posts is the way our economy is being reported in the media is to me tantamount to being hysterical 'at times'. I have said many times it could well be the case we will be in serious financial trouble in the future near or far, however I speak for the day not projections, guesses.

Take the latest inflation rate increase of 1%. We are made to feel this is all down to Brexit and the fall in Sterling. Yes it is in part but nobody is thinking outside of the UK and blooming Brexit, nobody is making a link in the other things that cause inflation , IT IS ALL BECAUSE OF BREXIT they say. Well has Brexit caused these countries to have a similar inflation report too?

Consumer prices in Germany rose 0.7 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, compared to a 0.4 percent increase in August and matching preliminary estimates. 'IT WAS THE HIGHEST INFLATION RATE' since May 2015 as prices of food and services rose further while cost of energy fell less than in a month earlier .

Consumer prices in France rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, compared to a 0.2 percent rise in the previous three months and matching preliminary estimates. 'IT WAS THE HIGHEST INFLATION RATE' since October 2014 as an increase in prices of food and services offset a drop in cost of energy and manufactured products.

Consumer prices in the United States went up 1.5 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, higher than 1.1 percent in August and in line with market estimates. 'IT WAS THE HIGHEST INFLATION RATE' since October 2014.

I just try and keep a reasonable level head and feel there is a distinct aim in the country for blaming Brexit for everything and anything and as a ' Remainer' I find that not only grossly unfair but a danger to the welfare of the UK.

I lived in the UK since 1970 when the £ = 10 CHF- and it is currently at the lowest it has ever been, at 1.20. When we moved here 7 years ago, it was 2.50.

Mamie 07.39

"POGS you posted before about the "flash crash" and the state of sterling. You told me that sterling had not fallen that sharply after the referendum result. DaphneDill responded with a graph showing the huge fall in the currency on the morning of June 24th.

I understand where you are coming from and I AGREE with you there was a fall in sterling after the June 23rd vote.

I should have expanded on why I said on the Brexit 3 thread:-

"There was not a sharp decline after the Brexit vote, many were confounded as to their predictions not occurring straight after the announcement we were exiting the EU."

I was thinking of the longer history of the pound/euro rates than the chart Daphnedil produced which only covered from 02/05/2016 to 11/10/2016 which clearly did show the pound fell from around 145 to around 125.

For example in 2009 the pound was fluctuating between £109 to £116 to the euro. In 2010 the pound fluctuated between
£110 to £1.20 to the euro. I could go on but I hope you and others get my drift.

That's why after the referendum many commentators, economists had predicted the pound would fall to levels unknown, 'financial Armageddon'. In fact the pound went back to levels previously we had lived and traded with and that includes those ex pats abroad obviously.

The 'flash crash' also caused the pounds fall but from a very high level which some say was never sustainable. We fell back to where we were a few years ago.

So whilst I DO AGREE the pound has obviously fallen with the EU Referendum result and the Flash Crash we are trading at rates that are not unprecedented and that is what I have been trying to say.

I have to say with regards to your post that followed I found it annoying given you 'expected' a reply within 4 hours and what do you mean by 'ANOTHER' one for POGS to answer???

(See my post of 0739 this morning, another one for POGS to answer!).

I did reply and at great length:

Pogs, it is very difficult to answer your questions re Switzerland. It is a very small countra, but extremely diverse, and the attitude of the German speakers in general is much more 'Teutonic' and conservative, than the FRench speaking part where I live. As said Basel Town often votes with the French speakers, as it did on that occasion, and often Zurich too- but the rest of the German parts are still very rural and conservative. Strangely enough, as in France and in the UK too- the more rural parts, where immigration is very small by comparison- tend to be more anti-immigrants (fear of the unknown and all that, and fear of their traditional ways being affected). They are also 'led' by the UDC, which is very focivorous in their campaigns, and backed by a few very rich industrialist. Poster campaigns included pictures of 'white sheep kicking out a black sheep from the pasture, a Kosovo looking man with a gold chain saying he is likely to be racist, a woman in traditional Muslim dress with bomb coming out of her clothing, and so forth. And also by regular newspapers full of fear mongering and clearly racist stuff, put though each door on regular basis.

And just as in the UK now, with about the same % voting for and against, almost neck and neck, but with the 'limit immigration' just winning, so nearly half and half (as with Brexit) - the Swiss are bitterly divided. Young versus old, FRench against Germans, rural against academics, and so on. The situation is soso similar, albeit different, to what is going on in the UK now- and we are experiencing a very uncomfortable feeling of terribly 'déjà vu'. The was our respective Governments is very very different though- and at the moment, we just don't know exactly what is going on behind closed door.

All we know, is that the Swiss GVT has been working non stop since the Feb 14 vote to try and get a compromise with the EU. They were getting very close- but the EU panicked about Brexit- as they knew that if they compromised with Switzerland, the UK would use this as a precedent- they therefore had to backtrack and say a very firm NO- either you are part of the single market (providing you pay large sums of money and agree to have no say whatsoever with the rules and laws of the EU) or NOT. If you want to be part, then free movement of people is part and parcel of it- and there is no compromise possible.

You ask if the Swiss feel angry with the EU for 'threatening them'. I can't tell you about Switzerland as a whole- here where I live, where we rely totally on exports of quality watches and precision engineering- most people I know do not see this as a threat- but just the reality of the situation. We agree to be part of reciprocal agreements and single market within a framework of certain conditions. It is only fair that those conditions are adhered to. We do have the choice, to leave the single market, if we don't like the conditions at the end of the day. In my part of Switzerland, it would be sheer madness- most people can see that. The Swiss Franc is so high- and it is hard enough to be competitive as it is. Common sense.

I mean, wasn't that sufficient as a reply?
And as many of you know, the last few days have been very busy with vet visits, etc.

Well, Theresa May has decided that it was all about immigration. Yet strangely most Brexiteers seem to deny this (well, perhaps, they muse, we could do something about restricting numbers a bit, but we're not against immigration at all). According to them it was about Sovereignty and Take Back Control.

Immigration (i.e free movement of people within the EU) is going to be a huge sticking point because TM has decided it is. I don't think 'soft brexit' is at all likely on her watch. But then, immigration is far more tangible than 'sovereignty' and 'take back control' isn't it?

There was a very interesting article about the perils of leaving the Customs Union today.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/18/theresa-may-given-stark-warning-about-leaving-customs-union

granjura, I'm sure you noticed this from POGS's post of 23.36 yesterday:

I have asked granjura 3 separate times the same question with regard to the Swiss Referendum since Sunday but so far I have not noticed a reply to specific questions.

If you are so adamant that statements made should be prepared to be backed up, perhaps you could do so in this case.

I suspect (I don't know obviously) that most of the Government would like to achieve a softish Brexit with concessions on immigration. The problem with this is that the other 27 countries would probably block it and they have all been clear that free movement is a red line.
The Government talk is very much about hard Brexit and I don't know what they are seeking to achieve by that, though Fox and Davis would always have wanted it I think.
I have no idea if Theresa May wants hard Brexit or is playing a longer game.
March is a bad time to trigger though, with elections in France in May and Germany later in the year.
I think it will take years and be very messy.

Not sure Gilly - again, making a statement of interpretation is very different to making a clear promise painted on a massive bus like an advertising board. Or a video and posters clearly showing untruths and clearly massively distorting the reality of what the referendum was about (like queues of clearly NON EU immigrants that will not in any way change post referendum)- as well as clearly racist. No business would get away with it- and political parties shouldn't either.

It does not matter if you are Pro or Con - or in the middle. If you make a statement as fact, you (anyone) should be prepared to back it up - or not make it.

gillybob I never thought that anything on this thread would raise a

Re the exchange rate, I am sorry for anyone who moved to the Continent for a better retirement than they thought they could have in the UK and now find themselves in dire financial constraint because of the exchange rate.

However, the £ has always fluctuated and fluctuations occur too because the strength or not of foreign currencies gaining or losing strength.

We do know people who went to Spain because life out there would be better and cheaper - but without any cushion at all to fall back on should the situation change . They thought those left behind in the UK were daft and had no sense of adventure!

However most people we know who bought property and moved there (in France mainly) did not have such a gung-ho attitude and took a more pragmatic approach, knowing the pros and cons and making contingency plans for whatever reasons.

I think thatmost political statements would probably be torn apart by the Trades Descriptions Acts granjura .

Serious question to Mamie what are the chances of a soft Bexit? or would that be almost staying in "but agreeing to sit in the backroom?"

Would a soft Bexit be effectively letting down all those who voted to leave on the grounds of immigration?

Yes soft Brexit means free movement of people, which will be a sticking point.
My feeling it that it will depend on how people react when higher prices caused by the low pound really start to bite.

Ana 'I regret that you are going to have a long wait, granjura. You are so pro-EU that you think any crumbs tossed should be gratefully accepted, but fortunately not evryone feels that way.' how can any debate be held in this way. So please, do not continue to make statements you just cannot back up- or it just becomes pure nonsense.

Again, there is a massive difference between differences of the interpretation of possible consequences, and pure out and out lies, backed with a massive campaign with the promises printed on a massive bus and a very racist video re the NHS, the posters re immigrants who were clearly not from EU - etc- all of which would be torn apart by the Trades Description Act had they been used by businesses to sell products or services.

I guess you know that very well too.