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Brexit4

(1001 Posts)
granjura Fri 14-Oct-16 15:30:21

As I made a mistake and posted in 'Brexit, power to the people' - here is Brexit4.

I know some of you don't like 'experts' or their opinions, but I do urge all to listen to this man again, from Liverpool University, calmly and expertly explaining what the single market is, and how it does work

www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1397204436973623/

whitewave Tue 18-Oct-16 17:00:38

And by the way inflation has risen to its highest for 2years. Expect to see it rise still further. Off now to sort out the chilli!

thatbags Tue 18-Oct-16 17:48:22

I agree with your second paragraph, ww, and yes, I support people's right to criticise and whine and complain as much as they want.

thatbags Tue 18-Oct-16 17:57:36

But I still think there would have been less complaining if the vote had gone the other way. I think Leavers would, on the whole, have shrugged and moved on.

thatbags Tue 18-Oct-16 17:58:40

Maybe not the right wing members of the Tory Party who pushed for a referendum, but most Leave voters didn't come into that category.

thatbags Tue 18-Oct-16 17:59:20

Oh, and Ukip. I keep forgetting about them.

Still most people weren't Ukip supporters either.

gillybob Tue 18-Oct-16 18:00:33

The result, is what it is and whether you voted for or against, surely we should all be doing our best to try and make it work, for future generations. Instead of almost wishing for it all to go horribly wrong why can't those who voted "stay" (myself included) try to bury their resentment and all work together.

Too simplistic? Well that's me.

Ana Tue 18-Oct-16 18:02:55

Inflation isn't rising solely because of Brexit, whitewave.

gillybob Tue 18-Oct-16 18:03:08

If a vote in any walk of life doesn't go the way you wanted it to, you can't just keep holding elections until you get your own way. It's like playing a game where you toss a coin, you lose and say "best of three", "best of seven", "best of 100" confused

Welshwife Tue 18-Oct-16 18:17:58

In this case with regards to the majority needed Farage stated in an Interview that should it be a two thirds majority in favour of remaining that would it finished BUT if it were a 48-52 result it would be far from over and he would 'insist' on a second referendum. Double standards there I think as he has kept remarkably quiet on how small the victory was.

It was also an advisory referendum not a binding one.

A normal election can be reversed after a few years but not with this. I think that all the misinformation given before hand also has a part in why there is so much disquiet about the result.

Ana Tue 18-Oct-16 18:23:29

Admit it though, Welshwife, you wouldn't be saying all that if the vote had gone to Remain by the same number, would you?

whitewave Tue 18-Oct-16 18:32:38

bags not sure you are correct in saying if the vote had gone the other way then the leavers would have shrugged and accepted the result.

Farage had said on more than one occasion that (coincidentally) if the vote was as close as 48-52 he would call vociferously for another referendum.

The rise in inflation is due to fuel and imported clothes all having to increase in price because of the fall in the value of the£

daphnedill Tue 18-Oct-16 18:49:24

@thatbags

Shrugged and moved on? Just like they did for the last 40 years? grin

POGS Tue 18-Oct-16 18:58:36

Whitewave

I know Brexit is the be all end all of our financial woes to some, in some cases it may be 'part of the issue' but I keep reminding myself to be open minded.

YearInflation
20161.0%1.00
20151.0%1.01
20142.4%1.03
20133.0%1.07
20123.2%1.10
20115.2%1.16
20104.6%1.21
2009-0.5%1.20
20084.0%1.25
20074.3%1.31
20063.2%1.35
20052.8%1.39
20043.0%1.43
20032.9%1.47
20021.7%1.49
20011.8%1.52
20003.0%1.57

We were at virtually 0% at the beginning of the year and the Bank of England said it expected inflation to rise.

www.economicshelp.org/blog/13272/inflation/is-zero-inflation-a-good-thing/

Conclusion

In the short term, the fall in inflation will be mostly welcomed by the ‘average’ Joe in the public. They will benefit from cheaper prices and the feeling of more disposable income. This ‘feel good’ factor may encourage stronger confidence – investment, spending and growth. In the current climate, low inflation could be a blessing in disguise.

However, there is also a real danger that if we get stuck in a period of ultra-low inflation / deflation, then all the problems of deflation will become more prominent and start to hold back normal economic growth.

My understanding is 0%. Inflation where we were at the beginning of the year, is not particularly a good or bad thing short term but not clever long term.

Since the 'flash crash' it is true the pound fell and costs of imports will cause manufacturing costs to rise . The fact however inflation is still at 1% is not as I understand abnormal.

It is so easy for hysterical head lines to grab attention but really over 1% inflation. It might well go up further but for goodness sake make sense as it stands as of today.

Ana Tue 18-Oct-16 19:01:20

daphnedill - exactly.

I didn't vote to join the Common Market, but I certainly didn't stamp my feet and have a hissy fit because the vote didn't go my way all those years ago...grin

Tegan Tue 18-Oct-16 19:07:02

I think if the vote had gone the other way but still been close, a lot of us [me included] would have realised how little we actually knew about the workings of the EU and would have taken a greater interest in future. I don't remember, for the past x number of years, people saying to me how desperate they were for us to leave the EU; I still feel it was 'sold' to us in a way that made many people think that they actually wanted to leave. How many people can honestly say that, if they'd been asked about it several years ago, they would have put it at the top of their political wish list [other than a lot of Tory politicians that were trying to oust Cameron].

whitewave Tue 18-Oct-16 19:30:54

pogs inflation has risen because of the fall in the value of the £. The fall in the value of sterling is as a result of nervousness in the markets over Brexit.
Your list of inflation over the past is interesting to a point but cannot explain why inflation is beginning to rise now.
As I indicated in a previous post for every 10% drop in the value of the £ inflation will rise between 2and 3%, so inflation has a way to go yet.

With regard to whether a drop in the value of sterling is good or bad I have argued that in previous posts.

My posts are not hysterical, I merely repeated the BBC also not known for it's hysteria.

Welshwife Tue 18-Oct-16 19:32:41

Actually I think had the vote gone the other way with a 4% majority then people would have realised that things needed changing and just how much feeling there was that much was amiss - a real wake up call in UK and the EU - they had started to realise this before the referendum and begun talking about it.

I am sad that the UK will not be at the table to help with the changing of the EU - and I do believe it will be changed for the better and we will not benefit. I am sad for the young people who see their hopes of Erasmus scholarships disappearing over the horizon. I am also sad when I realise the amount of feeling there was in the country about immigration - there are many good points about it as well as some perceived bad ones.
The U.K.has the greatest number of citizens living in other EU countries - it is to be hoped that if many of them are forced to return to UK for any reason they are welcomed back with open arms and housing and benefits are forthcoming!

durhamjen Tue 18-Oct-16 20:07:31

Shame it wasn't left up to MPs.

There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.

granjura Tue 18-Oct-16 20:27:46

Could it be they would have shrugged and moved on ... because the £ wouldn't have collapsed, and there wouldn't be strong signs of inflation and loss of investment and business, etc?

Not sure the EDL, BF, NF and the more vociferous Ukip wing- would have shrugged and moved on- actually.

granjura Tue 18-Oct-16 20:29:43

nigglynellie - could you please remind me about the lies told by the remain side? As truly I can't remember any- unlike the lies of the leave side, where a definite and clear list can be made (starting of course with the 350m per day for the NHS)...

I'd be grateful if you could help here, thanks.

daphnedill Tue 18-Oct-16 20:41:45

You'll need the patience of a saint, gj.

Ana Tue 18-Oct-16 20:44:49

What do you mean, daphnedill? What an odd remark!

nigglynellie Tue 18-Oct-16 20:47:11

The emergency budget, the triggering of article 50 the day after the result, D.C. saying that if he couldn't get a decent deal from the EU he would recommend that we should vote leave - not!!! Project Doom!! Need I go on?!

POGS Tue 18-Oct-16 20:47:52

Whitewave

I did not accuse you of making hysterical posts!

I posted this:-

"It is so easy for hysterical ' head lines' to grab attention but really over 1% inflation. It might well go up further but for goodness sake make sense as it stands as of today."

I stand by that as it is easy to note the different forms of reporting by the media today and it appears to me , not for the first time, those media outlets that were pro remain are continuing to use any method possible to blaim Brexit .

I will go on the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and their words:-

"However, the ONS said there was "no explicit evidence" that the the weaker pound was increasing prices of every day goods.

UK inflation was driven up mainly by rising prices for clothing, overnight hotel stays and motor fuels, according to ONS data.

Clothes prices jumped by 6 per cent in September, compared to August. Fuel prices rose to a faster pace compared with the same month a year ago.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which includes housing costs, has also risen to 2 per cent in September from 1.8 per cent in August.

Mike Prestwood, head of inflation at the ONS, said: “CPI inflation has risen to its highest for nearly two years, though it remains low by historic standards."

“The prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials were unchanged over the month and there is 'no explicit evidence the lower pound is pushing up the prices of everyday consumer goods'.”

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/inflation-rise-uk-september-latest-brexit-price-rises-a7367051.html

I did not say the fall in the pound will not possibly have an impact later on , who knows, it probably will and then it would seem reasonable to connect the two.

As I see it at the moment there is inflation , a load of puffed up media commentators who will blaim Brexit for everything.

granjura Tue 18-Oct-16 20:57:30

Thanks for replying niggly - project doom as you call it wasn't a lie, but an interpretation, which is turning out to be pretty true in fact. You can't compare this with the downright lie, printed on a bus in massive letters, that 350m would be spent on the NHS. Apples and oranges- no comparison.

DC did in fact get a pretty decent deal - he pushed it as far as he could go, especially in view of the fact the UK already had deals not available to ANY of the other EU countries, like not being part of Euro.

As for article 50 - it would have been better in many ways to call it immediately rather than suffer months and months of uncertainty causing the £ to plunge so massively and causing foreign investment to almost stop and UK and foreign firms planning their move out of Europe.

The interpretation of the Remain side may have seemed exagerated to you (as said it doesn' seem to be that they were) - but to compare this to the blatant, massive and clear lies of the leave campaign- just doesn't make sense.

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