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Sleaford bi election

(53 Posts)
Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 08:42:08

Tory win. UKIP 2nd,. Libs 3rd. Labour 4th .

Labour was second in the general election

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 08:54:42

Sorry, by election

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 08:59:09

As we predicted Annie

petra Fri 09-Dec-16 08:59:45

Those results could possible be the same at the next general election.
I'm sure Corbyn has a very good reason as to why they got absolutely slated.

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 09:05:56

Could be one of four reasons labour did so badly

Hilary Benn and the coup. Brexit. MP's not getting behind Corbyn . Tony Blair

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 09:06:37

Corbyn is the reason.

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 09:08:11

He's lost his core voters to UKIP just as Labour in Scotland lost its core voters to the SNP.

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 09:45:59

Yes Anya, and if he stays leader UKIP will be the official oposition party after the next election.

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 09:53:46

I want Labour to be that opposition party, as do you Annie but that's not looking likely. Labour has to find a way to connect with its core voters, which is not the same as party members, before it is too late; though I think it may be already.

I certainly don't want the extreme right wing politics of UKIP - that would give us a right wing conservative government which, instead of the modifying effect of a left wing opposition, would be opposed (?) by an even more right-wing opposition.

confused

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 10:02:36

I want a labour government Anya but have given up hope of that . Labour is the official opposition now and failing badly . The only chance for Labour is Corbyn resigns, yet if he did momentum would put McDonald in his place . I give up

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 12:26:21

I want a Labour government that pours money into the NHS, education, social care and social housing. I'd like the electricity, gas, water and railways renationalised. I don't understand why some people who voted to leave the EU because they don't want to be ruled by foreigners are quite happy to have their power, water, large companies, banks etc. owned by foreign companies.

Where will the money come from? Well we can do without Trident for a start. Then we can close the tax avoidance loopholes that let rich individuals and large corporations pay less than they should. And no negotiating with large companies about their liabilities. They owe what they owe.

Does this make me a looney leftie? Well if treating all people fairly is left wing and looney then I must be.

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 12:44:44

The voters do not want rid of trident , nothing to do with being a looney left, I want what you want vampire queen but accept to achieve some is better than none.

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:20:58

I've looked at the figures for this by election and the general election in 2015. The first figure is the 2015 result and the second is the by election.

Cons 34895 17570
Lab 10690 3363
Lib 3500 3606
UKIP 9716 4426

Turnout: 70.53% 37.01%

As usual statistics can be used in a variety of ways.

Labour vote has dropped but then so has the Conservative vote. If the Labour vote is a sign that people don't like Corbyn then equally it could be said that the Conservative vote shows that people don't like May either.

The UKIP vote has increased by not by the number of Labour/Conservative lost votes. There is no evidence to support the view that all the extra UKIP votes were disenchanted Labour voters switching parties. It's just as likely that they are disenchanted Conservative voters. It may also be that UKIP have attracted people who have never voted before. Who knows? The only way would be to survey all those who voted UKIP to see which party, if any, they had voted for in 2015.

As usual in by elections the turnout was much lower than a general election. This could account for the drop in Labour/Conservative votes

Other people may take these statistics to prove other ideas but I don't think they necessarily show that Corbyn is responsible for the low Labour vote.

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:22:41

How do you know the voters want to keep Trident? I'm a voter and I don't want it. The government wanted to keep Trident and the media supported them. That's not the same thing as the voters wanting it.

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 13:27:09

You have UKIP. losing votes on your stats VQ [cofused]

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 13:30:02

Looking at the last two very recent by-elections I'm thinking ....

"One time is an accident, two times is a trend, three times is a problem."

Do we wait for the third then VQ before the Labour Party takes a good look at this?

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:35:41

Apologies...UKIP stats should be the other way round.

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:37:58

Have you looked at the statistics for all the parties or just making assumptions? A number of people cast protest votes in by elections then revert to their usual party in general elections. Turn out in by elections is usually lower too.

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 13:38:42

Last year labour was second, yesterday fourth ,

You really believe labour can take marginal seats vampire?

Anniebach Fri 09-Dec-16 13:42:39

Why would Labour voters cast protest votes , what in your opinion vampire are thry protesting over? it is governments who suffer protest votes, opposition parties the opposite

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:43:13

Labour lost the last two general elections. You really believe that having a leader who promotes the same policies that the electorate has already rejected twice is going to help the Labour Party win the next election, Anniebach.

vampirequeen Fri 09-Dec-16 13:44:27

Labour membership has increased dramatically. Why do you think that has happened?

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 13:48:37

VP that's better.....well it's not because no one (in their right mind) wants that sort of increase in the UKIP vote.

I admit I haven't gone into the statistics for all the parties, but listening to more 'traditional' (I know who I mean) Labour voters I know I'm getting the message that the feel Labour simply doesn't understand what they are trying to say any more than the Tories. It's very much the same feeling behind some who want out of the EU.

So UKIP seems to them to reflect their 'values' sad

Ginny42 Fri 09-Dec-16 13:50:51

I have no idea VQ. Do you really think it's because people are convinced that JC and the party are an effective opposition? I'm at a loss to know what is attractive about the Party atm.

Anya Fri 09-Dec-16 13:51:10

Labour Party membership has nothing to do with the average voter.

And they has 'lost' (misplaced?) many voters, like myself. I probably wouldn't vote for them if there was a general election tomorrow.