Gransnet forums

News & politics

The 4th Industrial Revolution

(114 Posts)
daphnedill Mon 06-Mar-17 11:18:55

A recent article by Bernard Marr in Forbes:

The 4th Industrial Revolution And A Jobless Future - A Good Thing?

It’s estimated that between 35 and 50 percent of jobs that exist today are at risk of being lost to automation.

Repetitive, blue collar type jobs might be first, but even professionals — including paralegals, diagnosticians, and customer service representatives — will be at risk.

This isn’t just science fiction, it’s happening now. Manufacturing are the first places we see robots and automation eliminating human jobs, but it’s hard to think of an industry that will be left unaffected as robots and AI become more affordable and widespread.

Rather than fight this advancement and wring our hands over the robots “stealing” our jobs, maybe it’s time to envision a jobless future.

Most people are in jobs they don’t particularly enjoy, with lots of mundane and repetitive tasks. Is it not our obligation to pass those jobs to machines?

From a business standpoint, any consultant would tell you that any task that can be systematized and automated should be. Many jobs are not jobs humans should waste their time doing.
The challenge is to rethink our economic model to ensure the people who will do something more interesting and enjoyable can afford to do so.

What would a jobless future look like?

All these technological advances that we are creating today — big data, artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things — represent a significant challenge to capitalism.
The more we automate and systematize, the more we see jobless growth and productivity. Taken to its logical extremes, we have a paradox of an exponentially growing number of products, manufactured more and more efficiently, but with rising unemployment and underemployment, falling real wages and stagnant living standards.

The 4th Industrial Revolution has started.

In other words, more products produced more cheaply and efficiently — but no one able to afford to buy them.
In fact, it’s already begun.

The rate of technological progress and worker productivity is on the rise, but wages are stagnating, factories are eliminating jobs, and researchers estimate that anywhere between 35 and 50 percent of jobs that exist now are in danger of being lost to automation.

But what if the prognosis weren’t all doom and gloom? What if all this automation were instead to provide so much luxury that we enter a post-work era, when humans are required to do very little labor and machines provide everything we need?

Fully Automated Luxury Communism describes an idea and ideology that in the (relatively near) future, machines could provide for all our basic needs. Humans would be required to do very little work on quality control and similar oversight, and have much of their time free to pursue other things. The result would be attainable luxury for everyone.
Robots, AI, machine learning, big data, etc. could make human labor redundant instead of creating even further inequalities. It could lead to a society where everyone lives in luxury and where machines produce everything while humans are free to pursue the creative explorations that robots and machines are incapable of: science, art, music, poetry, invention, and exploration.

How a jobless society must work

The trick, however, is subordinating the technology to global human needs rather than to profits.

Putting modern technology to work for the people is an excellent goal, and democratizing the advantages of our advances is already happening in some sectors. Bringing governments and nonprofit organizations onto the same technological footing as for-profit companies is a good step forward and could result in huge strides towards improving living conditions, decreasing crime, ending poverty and other problems.

I believe that if we can collectively turn our technology to the good of everyone, technology would not just be pruning away the jobs that are too mundane for humans to do, but also create new opportunities to replace the ones that were lost. Crucially: the jobs will be pruned regardless, but it is up to us to create the opportunities.

It’s the idea that the next Mozart, or Einstein, or Edison may be waiting — but because of inequalities like poor schooling, hunger, inadequate housing, etc., they may never reach their full potential.

If technology can provide an equal playing field for those children of the future, providing for all their needs, and that is done through the loss of the low-wage, monotonous, unfulfilling jobs we are clinging to today, then I say, destroy those jobs. Make way for the new generation and give them the tools they need to create incredible things.

Any comments?

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 11:33:18

I am not suggesting anyone should not be allowed to work Ankers

Good, but they should still have the choice[as you did] to work if they want to. Plus structures to allow them to do so[which they have not really got at present].

And as I say, this is actually what the thread is partly about. Providing work.

The next group of people to effectively not be allowed and able to work will be the unskilled[some of them] and even skilled workers too.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 11:33:22

One of the questions asked on the broadcast I linked was "If you were given your current salary would you work at the job you do"? It's and interesting one to think about as the changes happen.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 11:36:09

It is a resounding yes from me.
I ask myself that question pretty much every day, as the sector I am in is not very profitable at the moment[but getting better once more, but who knows for how long].
So yes yes yes.
It was even yes when the business was in negative.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 12:06:01

Do you remember Remploy Ankers? It still exists, but its own factories/workshops were closed by the coalition government. Now it only provides advice and training. Most of the people who were employed by Remploy haven't found work. Why do you think the governemnt closed the Remploy factories?

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 12:08:50

No, I would not have worked at the job I did. Of course, I miss the money and struggle financially, but my quality of life is a million times better and I'm healthier.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 12:10:41

As the OP of this thread, it wasn't intended to be just about work. The 4th Industrial Revolution is likely to have implications for society and democracy itself,just as previous industrial revolutions have.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 12:19:33

Why do you think the governemnt closed the Remploy factories?

I dont know. I would love to know the answer. I asked myself that very question when I was looking in our area and beyond for work opportunities for someone with autism.

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 12:30:14

Oh I am sorry I missed the Radio 4 prog this morning. Must catch it on iPlayer. At a friend's 70th lunch party last week she was telling me how she and another member of her Philosophy class had been to Dagenham the night before to hear him speak. Dagenham seemed especially relevant in the light of a possible reduction in car manufacturing in this country.
The question about salary was quoted too.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 12:43:08

In the future we must look at what we have to live on though dd and I agree that may not be 'work' as we know it.

Revolutions, in the past, have been made on the backs of the poor and vulnerable so I do believe that we have to be a step ahead to ensure this does not happen. I have not heard of any other suggestion than the UBI but would be very interested to hear any other suggestions. In one dystopian novel I read the government had a list of jobs so if one ended you were simply sent to another which made everyone believe they were 'working'.

What, other than the affect on work would you like to discuss? It would be interesting to know how democracy could reflect the needs of all when there is a possibility for some to be grossly rich and an underclass formed to support that. At the moment democratic government cannot address the manipulation by global companies and those paying themselves excessively so I am not sure how we could make it work against riches collected at higher amounts, possibly in even fewer hands.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 12:44:00

though = though

MaizieD Tue 07-Mar-17 13:09:42

What, other than the affect on work would you like to discuss?

Well, GG,

I, for one, wouold be interested to discuss necessary changes in values from the deeply ingrained 'Puritan work ethic' and the way this alternative society could be organised.. but I have to go out now.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 13:20:37

1 The internet has transformed communication. There are calls for democracy to be 'direct' by being 'virtual'. If you've been following the infighting in Momentum, one of the issues is about direct democracy. Jon Lansman and younger members want to abandon traditional structures, such as meetings and committees, and conduct most of its business online. The traditional (mainly older) members and so-called entryists want to continue with meetings and committess, because they've learnt how to dominate them. Social media has been a major contributing factor to populism.

2 The kind of work available will affect politics. Since the 1960s, there has been a decline in the number of manual jobs and a corresponding loss of purpose for the Labour Party. With the 4th IR, it is likely that there will be more jobs for creative people, who are highly skilled in IT and 'soft' skills such as management and managing finance. Although there will almost certainly still be low-skilled jobs, many of them will be in areas such as care work and cleaning. These are generally not well-paid and not respected that much by society. In my lifetime, I have already witnessed the wholesale loss of jobs for people such as shorthand typists and bank clerks. Retail jobs are already being lost. The choice is to upskill the people losing jobs (but where do they go then?), for them to do more menial (worse paid) jobs or be unemployed. Current political parties aren't addressing these people's needs - hence the rise in support for Ukip (maybe).

UBI is an interesting idea and it will be interesting to see how trials work out. However, current thinking on both the left and right seems to be that it's a non-starter. Some people who don't need the money would receive it. More importantly, it would have to be set at a level much higher than the current JSA to provide a genuine living wage. The figures involved really are fantasy.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 13:21:26

Look forward to discussion Maizie.

Have a nice day!

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 13:29:54

Social media has been a major contributing factor to populism.

I have been wondering this. Doesnt democracy on the internet work the other way too?
Though I have to say, when seeing how some people run their lives, [because you "see" more of the person on the internet than perhaps you would do in real life] it can make you start to think more about your democratic choices and which box you might like to put the X in.

I dont think that politicans have cottoned on to this yet! Both about themselves and the supporters in their area, and for their party!

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 13:54:43

I'm not sure I could put forward much of a discussion Maizie as the very words "ingrained 'Puritan work ethic'" tell me we might agreesmile

DD 1. I didn't know! First bit of learning please. If the young are not the "entryists" who are? I am not well up on Momentum and wouldn't know how to follow what they are saying but am interested in all the debates of all those with political opinion. I can see the battle positions on this. My first thoughts that using the internet would be both more inclusive for some of the currently excluded and more exclusive for some of the currently included but going forward much more inclusive.

DD 2 I would agree with your thinking (including the maybe) re the way politics is moving and why. It is intensely difficult to awaken those who believe that the work they once did or expected to do should always be available and even more that it may be a good thing that some people may be paid whether they work or not.

Do you know that one theory about the Garden of Eden is that it was a land in the delta of a river and no one had to work to any extent in order to provide for themselves as it was so fertile. When the delta dried up the people thought they had been evicted from the G of E because they had to work at providing their food, etc. I have a feeling we are so brainwashed by the Puritan work ethic that Maizie mentioned that it will be difficult for some to accept that wealth being shared by all would mean that, with enough for basic needs, you could choose to 'work' at caring, learning or making or nothing.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 13:59:42

^ you could choose to 'work' at caring, learning or making or nothing.^

for your whole life?

That is what was different with the scenario you presented about being retired and not having worked at all.

Different lazing around after having worked for 40 years, and now in your 60s, to being in your 20s and not working and with no prospect of work.

Now, granted, I expect we all know some who would like that.

And some could manage it probably, if they had to.

But for some, and I know many, I suspect it would give some of them at least mental health problems.

Which, as I was writing that, a lightbulb went off.
That is why I think, that someone I know has succumbed to bad mental health. No permanent work to go to.

varian Tue 07-Mar-17 14:03:54

This episode of the Public Philosopher is a really interesting examination of this topic, well worth listening to if you have a spare 44 minutes or while you're multitasking (since you don't yet have your own robot)

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gxndc

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:08:22

Will listen to it later, varian.I don't have 44minutes to spare at the moment.

GG 'Entryism' in political terms refers to people who try to infiltrate an organisation and take it over. That's what Trotsky did, which is why such people are often called 'Trots' (even though they're not really Trotskyists, but from a a number of different ideologies).

According to my DD and DS, both of whom have attended Momentum meetings, there are is a handful of entryists, who thrive on physical meetings (along with more traditional left-wingers) because they're bullies and try to intimidate the younger people, who are keen but politically naive. The bulk of younger people who joined Momentum don't have the time or will to sit through endless debates about organisational structure and ideology.

Ankers You are talking about paid work, as though all the work people do for no pay doesn't matter.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:22:28

Ankers People such as Charles Darwin never 'worked' for an employer, but his 'work' has greatly influenced the lives of all of us.

Some of the great nineteenth century philanthropists (such as the Rowntrees) inherited wealth. Although most of them were involved with their family businesses, their wealth gave them time to research and they greatly influenced social reform.

Millions of mothers and carers have never 'worked', but life wouldn't tick over without them.

There is more than enough work which could be done to improve society, but society isn't always willing to pay the people who do it.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:24:33

I would have chosen to learn for my whole life, but couldn't have afforded it. I can think of nothing about paid work which I miss, apart from the money, of course.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 15:55:34

Ankers You are talking about paid work, as though all the work people do for no pay doesn't matter.

Oh good grief. Not another poster who twists words. Or feigns the wrong assumption whilst not looking at the actual words properly.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 15:56:50

Ah. But actually it is a diversion to aid GG. That is what some of you lot do.

Got it now!

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 16:06:32

Maybe I was a bit harsh there, but seriously, whatever did I
say to lead you to that conclusion? Nothing.

Please read my words more carefully in future.

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 16:30:08

Clearly a conspiracy hmm

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 16:59:09

When shall we three meet again?
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

When the hurlyburly's done,
When the battle's lost and won.

What are you going on about Ankers? confused

PS. Maw, GG and I seem to have been cast as the three witches!

Seriously..

I was trying to suggest that 'work' and the people who carry it out are more than 'factors of production', which is how an economist sees it.