Is it too late for a U turn on Brexit or at least watering it down?

All this delay means that businesses start to haemorrhage cash.
Goods coming into the U.K. Will be stopped as well.
"Proof of country of Origin" (remember that?) will have to be re-introduced in order to ensure the correct tariffs are paid. This is an incredible onerous and detailed process. Each stage of production has to be accounted for and correct paperwork produced.

It is estimated that in the first year "proof of country of origin" will cost the U.K. £25bn. By 2030 it will lead to a drop of 4-5% GDP.

Tariffs now loom large.

Cars 10%. Electronic goods will be badly affected as will warships and commercial liners. British cigarettes which are nearly all sold in Europe will have a tariff of 57% slapped on them.
Aerospace industry will be hit.
Shares in all these industries will plummet because their costs will rocket and their unit price rise, with no extra income.

Do deal is better than a bad deal is beginning to look decidedly shaky.

What about the service sector?

Forward to 1/4/19 and the City has been dreading this day. They have tried to mitigate the disaster by shedding as many low paid and Middle paid jobs in the U.K. And moving them to lower paying countries in the EU.

They are desperate to retain their "passports". In order to do so they have to prove to the EU financial authorities, that they have a significant presence in the EU.
The EU financial authorities seem in no rush to push these applications through, some banks/ financial companies do not get their passport in time for the deadline, and so are unable to trade with their previous EU customers. These customers seek financial service elsewhere and we watch as the financial services capacity is cut by 10% with the loss of thousands more jobs and £12bn revenue.

I do hope they choose a different date.
The new NHS scheme came in on April Fools Day. Look what fools they made of us about our health service.

On the other hand, I hope it's not up to them!

The £ begins a further slide, and British bond price rises. Foreign investment falls further.
The deficit begins to look unsustainable, and ironically immigration declines. The economy is tanking.
2019 will be seen in future as the beginning of Britains decline.

But what about the WTO I hear you cry!

I want to know what he thinks will happen to the NHS, if we will have one then.

So let's look at the WTO so beloved by the Brexiters.

So off we go to the WTO.

The problem is though that there are no rules that govern what Britain has done.

Britain has been trading under the EU umbrella fotr decades. Now it tries to extract its tariff and subsidy arrangements from the EU and lay them before the rest of the WTO.

In response the EU initiates a formal dispute. This starts to avalanche. The WTO rules allow any country that feels it has been unfairly treated to trigger a dispute.

The EU arrangement preventing cheap steel from China is Britain claims still Party to . China reacts furiously.

British professionals in Europe find that they can no longer practice because their qualifications are no longer recognised.
No deal has been out in place for legal rulings, so decisions on for example divorce, child maintenance are not recognised.
Regulation fails. Pharmacy are thrown into chaos.

Haven't come to the NHS yet.

Well it seems to me that if this worse case "no deal is better than a bad deal" scenario happens we will have so much to worry about the NHS will be in such high demand it will collapse under the strain.

Britains closest allies are wary of opening talks with the U.K. Without knowing what it's final status will be with either Europe or the WTO.

Britain will be in a position of unique and historic vulnerability.

The US is prepared to assist, just like May says they would. But the UK must be prepared to accept all its demands, just as May said we would.

What are they?

Consumer protection are reduced across the board
Protection for the environmental regulations are drastically reduced.
The NHS and its safeguards are gone.

This is what the mantra " no deal is better than a bad deal" means

Reference.

I Dunc 2016

I think I need a lie down now!

Scary isn't it ww?

I don't think I want the US to assist. They'll want too much in exchange for holding hands.

May is keen though, and as she appears to listen to no one it is a case of hard cheese.

"Britain can prevent the above from happening

All it requires is an intelligent ministerial team, a workable timetable, hundreds of trade experts, a restrained political debate and economic calm.

Britain has none of these things.

The leading figures in the ministerial team handling Brexit do no seem to understand the obstacles they must overcome, or the profound consequences of failure.

They have misunderstood the Eu, misunderstood the WTO, misunderstood Article 50, misunderstood the economy and the legal framework in which they must now operate"

"The Prime Minister and Government Ministers repeat the mantra that "no deal is better than a bad deal", signalling they would be prepared to walk away from Brexit negotiations.

Theresa May has relaunched her election campaign, with this claim now at its centre. However, in the Tories' own words, if we fail to get a deal "the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire."

It's clear: a no deal scenario will hurt jobs, our economy and the livelihoods of hardworking British families, and must be stopped at all costs, and yet Theresa May is prepared to consider this eventuality."

Even the Tories say that no deal will be a disaster. The quote in the second paragraph is from Conservative Central HQ.

So who is she kidding?

Sorry the reference should have been Dunt, not Dunc!!!

She's trying to kid every Tory voter who never listens, just votes the same way.

The same way she is kidding them about her being strong and stable enough to negotiate the Brexit deal. It will not be her or Corbyn.
It will probably be Davis, or Johnson, or Starmer.
I know which of those I want to negotiate on our behalf.

Thank you, I think (no, thank you seriously) whitewave. Sadly the name Cassandra springs to mind.

I doubt it will be that bad as there would, presumably, be knock on effects for other countries, so they would try to mitigate it a little but there would be a price for that. I do think it can be much, much worse than many/most realise.

gg that of course is the worse case scenario.

But i think it makes clear that the no deal mantra is ridiculous

The clear choice at the end of the negotiations should be "this deal or no deal", meaning stay in the EU, with all the many advantages we do not want to lose, not "this deal or something even worse"

That is the choice that the Liberal Democrats would put to the people when, and only when, they know what the deal involves.

I only wish May thought like that, varian.
I wonder if she really wants to punish people who voted for Brexit. Unfortunately it will be the rest of us as well.