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Cliff Edge anyone?

(1001 Posts)
whitewave Fri 30-Jun-17 07:31:33

This term gets bandied about in relation to Brexit without any of the consequences attached to it.

I have just done some research/ reading and thought it was time we all had the opportunity to discuss what exactly a "cliff edge Brexit" means and whether it can be taken seriously as a "no deal is better than a bad deal" deal.

So talks have failed and our government decides to go it alone.

It is day one of Britains great adventure

We have no trade deals with the EU or the rest of the world.
The economy goes into recession
We now have in front of us several years of negotiating trade deals both with our potentially biggest customer -Europe and the rest of the World.
Countries like Argentina and others that bear a grudge will block any dealings with the WTO.
Getting exports to Europe will become an absolute nightmare, as even if we have successfully arranged our borders for a post Brexit scenario, Europe has only just begun to get their border controls in place for the flow of goods to and from the UK.
The SE becomes a huge lorry park as good stand waiting to be processed. There is a potential for shortages to occur- particularly in relation to food, as there is only one port in Europe that is set up to deal with this commodity, and that is not yet functioning.
Issues like "country of origin" causes complete chaos for business and everything becomes a bureaucratic nightmare.
Flights are delayed/cancelled until the UK can do its own deals with regard to flight rights.
And of course as we have read only recently, nuclear material will dry up, threatening cancer and other treatment.

References are available on request????

Tegan2 Sun 02-Jul-17 16:59:27

It's just been pointed out to me that Dyson [who told everyone to vote leave] gets EU grants. I'm still waiting for him to bring his workforce back to this country now he has got what he wanted.

durhamjen Sun 02-Jul-17 15:45:31

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

Such a shame they didn't all vote in the referendum. If they had we wouldn't be in this mess.

durhamjen Sun 02-Jul-17 14:01:17

Can you imagine having to measure the line between Wales and Ireland, whitewave. It's only about fifty miles altogether.
12 miles ours, twelve theirs, and they can fight about the rest!

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 13:47:58

I suppose it will be tit for tat. We get a lot of our fish from Irish waters. So presumably they will "take back control" of their fisheries. And of course there is Iceland and Norwegian waters all " taking back control"

Silly little man

durhamjen Sun 02-Jul-17 13:33:57

www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/02/uk-take-back-control-london-fisheries-convention-michael-gove

Not much cod around any more. Herring wars? Haddock wars?

"Fish do not recognise lines on a map." WWF.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 09:37:15

Brexit Bill -comment from Brussels bod

The Brexit bill is in danger of becoming exceedingly toxic, but in point of fact there are a lot more important subjects that need discussing.

He suggests that Independent National arbitration would be a good way forward.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 09:26:19

I am beginning to wonder how, in view of the fact that the majority of people do not want a hard Brexit, how do we stop May careering along that path?

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 09:20:08

So I've begun to look at and glean some information.

I found a really good paper from a university dated May 17 and titled how the divorce bill is to be calculated. Ha ha I thought just what I need -it was in Hungariansad

Will keep looking but so far.

First a methodology of calculating the amount has to be agreed.

The Eu budget is in 7 year cycles - multinational financial framework - MMF - and at the beginning of the cycle all EU countries sign up to the budget and agree their payment.

The current budget finishes in 2020 -Britain signed up in 2014.

A50 has nothing to say about money.

The legal position therefore is unclear, but if we insist on welching on our commitment, which would totally knacker both the EU budget and the Brexit talks.

Welshwife Sun 02-Jul-17 09:01:51

If I were the EU negotiators I would make it a really high bill to call her bluff!grin

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 08:51:40

So let's see what and how this figure is made from and then we can judge if May is correct or simply grandstanding.

daphnedill Sun 02-Jul-17 08:46:42

Well, I hope it's pie in the sky!

The next instalment in this exciting soap opera is that May is planning to storm out of negotiations about the "divorce bill".

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/01/theresa-may-could-storm-brexit-talks-divorce-bill/

Don't worry thoough, folks, somebody will be along very soon to deny it all.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 08:40:40

They want to keep the right to live, travel and work in Europe.

Free movement anyone?

The 18-24 year olds. 85% want to retain EU citizenship.

CBI as well as other institutions and pressure groups are demanding that May stops the nonsense of a hard Brexit.

No one but the loons want it. And they are small in number but loud in mouth.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 08:36:58

60% want to keep their EU citizenship. That is a lot!!!

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 08:30:59

cinders I read recently that Fox was known to be mediocre as a medical student. Almost certainly why he is now a mediocre member of parliament grin

smithy I think that no one really had any idea about what leaving would entail.

We were all sold a lie. But it is becoming all too dreadfully clear now and someone needs to have the courage to stand up and ask if this is really what we want, along with the clear outline about what will happen, and need to be achieved once we leave. That is without even looking at the economic consequences.

Smithy Sun 02-Jul-17 08:24:28

What is coming across in these posts is the fact that a majority of leavers did not know what they voted for and would now reverse their decision if they could go back. I made a comment to that effect in another thread (maybe not as politely!) and it was called a rude and uncalled for remark. Nonetheless true!

Welshwife Sun 02-Jul-17 08:12:32

The whole thing has got ridiculous and I think the rush with everything and not listening to any other ideas is because the Brexiteers are very worried that if there is any slowing down Brexit will be reversed. Everyone keeps saying that it will happen and we respect the vote etc - I think they protest too much!

I wonder what the fall out over the UK waters and the fishing agreement will cause - that could be the first better news but of course the industry Is decimated so will take a while to get up to strength again - if they ever do.

Cindersdad Sun 02-Jul-17 08:00:38

He is silly and mediocre but also very dangerous to the future prosperity of the nation. To become a Doctor he must have had a brain at one time. To claim that 40% (Labour) plus 42.5% (Tory) vote on an incomplete turnout gives an 82.5% mandate is absurd.

He and many other Brexiteers are clutching at straws to justify a blind unthinking pursuit of Brexit at all costs. Are our politicians incapable of thinking outside the box or even thinking at all?

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 08:00:20

WW no they can't until we leave. That is fact. Anything else is lies.

Fox has nothing to do as Dimbleby said.

Welshwife Sun 02-Jul-17 07:57:57

I read a report Friday or yesterday which said these talks were not happening.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 07:45:02

I actually think it was a silly reaction to Dimbleby's question to Fox " you have nothing to do do you until we leave?"

So he ended up lying - what a silly mediocre man he is.

whitewave Sun 02-Jul-17 07:42:46

I think that is all pie in the sky dd the US won't want to risk theircEU trade and almost certainly there will be a reaction if Fox tries to bend the rules. Besides which until we leave and finish negotiations neither us nor the US know what the terms will be.

daphnedill Sat 01-Jul-17 21:18:01

Apparently Liam Fox is starting trade negotiations between the UK and the US on 24 July. It doesn't take a genius to see where this is heading.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

whitewave Sat 01-Jul-17 20:44:14

Watching QT it seems pretty clear that Brexiters do not realise that we will lose every single negotiated trade deal both with the EU and the ROW. We will be starting from zero. I am quite sure that people don't generally realise this fact.

We cannot even start to negotiate until day 1. It takes 28months on average to negotiate 1 trade deal.

We will be in a very weakened position, so the negotiators from others countries will be able to pick us off like flies. There will be no reason to give an inch why would they?

whitewave Sat 01-Jul-17 20:36:18

I mentioned today my daughters concern over losing Euratom.

This is what Professor Brian Cox thinks of losing it

"Am trying to use temporats language so here goes: Terrifically stupid, utterly shit-headed, myopically parochial idiocy.
Pointless damage"

He isn't the only scientist with this opinion.

Survation today

Remain. 54%
Leave 46%

whitewave Sat 01-Jul-17 18:35:31

tegan include me in that

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