Unintended consequences of brexit

But Christine Lagarde is a lawyer and her job is with the World Monetary Fund.

Absolutely, Blair, Mandleson, Prescott, (a Peer?!!) Chakrabarti, not to mention those charming and delightful commissioners in the EU. Christine Lagard(sp) ?!!!! The list is endlessly depressing!

It is certainly true that some bankers/ former bankers turned politicians, have a lot to answer for - Farage, Rees Mogg and Redwood for a start.

While I appreciate that money is the new religion, and that everything revolves round big business, banks, bankers, politicians of all persuasions, some ambitious to the point of criminality and that nothing else is even remotely important, it does seem a very sad state of affairs that we have substituted economic destruction for weaker brethren in place of physical destruction. Entrapping a country into a never ending cycle of debt is every bit as bad as loans sharks entrapping individuals. A seemingly good arrangement turns into a nightmare as soon as the renewal date arrives! I don't care what anyone says, it's downright immoral and this country should not be a party to helping to invoke this kind of misery on others. We helped to liberate the countries of Europe not to then help re enslave them 70 years along the line!

Greece has no choice. The EU has them by scruff of the neck, one false move, and they'll be toast!!

The European Commission on Thursday (9 November) gave an optimistic view of the EU economy, saying that it is "on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year." According to the EU executive's Autumn Economic Forecasts, the eurozone economy will grow by 2.2 percent this year, 2.1 percent next year and at 1.9 percent in 2019."

It is true that some countries are markedly weaker than others. The Commission revised downward its forecasts for Greek growth this year - to 1.6 percent, compared to a 2.1 percent forecasts in May.

In spite of the problems in Greece, they have hugely benefited by being EU members, which is why they intend to remain in the EU. The country with the poorest level of growth is, of course the UK.

The Commission noted the the prospect of Brexit "is already having an impact on economic activity" and insisted that its forecasts for 2019 where based "on a purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading relations between the EU-27 and the UK." UK growth slowed down this year - to 1.5 percent from 2.3 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016 - because higher prices led to lower consumption.

euobserver.com/economic/139825

Bullying smaller weaker countries in order for us to flourish reeks of self interest and imo is disgraceful and something this country shouldn't entertain being part of. The treatment of Greece reminds me of the spider and the fly. Guess who bailed out Eire? Well, silly old us! The way the EU operates is despicable, bordering on criminal - the Common Market was one thing, but this outfit?!! We as a nation will be well shot of it!

The EU faces serious challenges, but it is far from the British caricature of it as protectionist, insular and economically illiberal. In reality, the EU’s single market is more open than the US market. And the EU has a good record of defending things the British claim to be upholders of – international law, rules-based trade and human rights.

Britain is heading for humiliation. The country’s already mediocre economic record is set to worsen further. It will be alienated from its closest allies – the rest of the EU – and have little international influence. Reality will eventually kick in, which might prompt the British elite to push for the country to rejoin the EU. In all likelihood, it eventually will, though on inevitably worse terms. And it will then have to spend the next 20 years painstakingly rebuilding the influence that it so casually threw away.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk

Sorry, formatting fail. Quote from Jalima is meant to be italics...

^ I have just received my new passport which should mean that I will be an EU citizen for the next 10 years^

Regretfully, I don't think that will apply. Anyone holding just a UK passport (as opposed to also having one from am EU country) will cease to be an EU citizen on 29th March next year no matter what it says on it.

So we'll be queuing in the non-EU passports line at airports and ferry ports no matter what it says on our passports. Unless we remain 'honorary' citizens if there is a transition period.

Dear God, what an awful organisation the EU is, Ag1, quite frighteningly so. Can we ever escape?!! Tony Benn predicted just this sort of scenario! If only we'd listened and not gone near these awful people! but we were young and thought we knew best! If only DeGaulle had lived longer, if only we hadn't so arrogantly and flippantly turned our backs on our real friends and allies? Will they ever want us back? Can they are ever trust us? You can hardly blame them if we're told to take a hike! How could we have been so stupid as to get mixed up with these bunch of arrogant bullyboy crooks.

Jalima: I have just received my new passport which should mean that I will be an EU citizen for the next 10 years - should I register or not? They are going to be inundated!

Yes, register. That is the general idea. I just got a new (red) passport too. And I resent my European citizenship being removed without appeal.

It's really interesting lemongrove to see from the problems that Switzerland is having that the the EU, is intransigent, full stop, with those who challenge them. The most insidious side of the EU action is how they tie the EFTA country's in with bilateral agreements, and then when those agreements are due to run out, the renewal becomes dependent on deeper and more conformity.

The more dependent on the single market, the less likely a country is able to resist. "Ever closer Union", what a trap.

Interesting, about the Swiss Allygran thanks for posting.

Yggdrasil thank you

I have just received my new passport which should mean that I will be an EU citizen for the next 10 years - should I register or not?

They are going to be inundated!

Ah, got it now
I thought you meant this page!

This page has been circulating round some other forums.
Really?

Switzerland and EFTA Country held over a barrel by the EU.

"Four years ago the Swiss voted to curb the freedom of movement of people between their country and the EU. Faced with the threat of a breakdown in its bilateral agreements with the EU, the government implemented only minor changes. With a further vote in prospect, Pascal Sciarini (University of Geneva) argues that economic realism is likely to win out over the desire to control immigration.
Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, but there have been more direct democratic votes on European integration in Switzerland than in any EU member state. After the rejection of the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1992, the Federal Council (the Swiss government) enjoyed consistent support for its strategy of bilateral agreements with the EU, winning eight direct democratic votes in a row between 1997 and 2009. However, it suffered a major defeat on February 9, 2014. On that day Swiss citizens backed the popular initiative “Stop mass immigration”, which was sponsored by the Swiss People’s Party – a national-conservative and populist, but governing party.
“Stop mass immigration” contradicted the bilateral agreement with the EU on the free movement of persons, since it aimed to reintroduce control over immigration through quotas on foreign workers and a preference for national workers in the labour market. It also demanded the Swiss government renegotiate international commitments within three years, to put them in line with the initiative’s requirements.

As a result of the so-called “guillotine clause” included in the first set of Switzerland-EU bilateral agreements concluded in 1998, the termination of the agreement on the free movement of persons would have invalidated the other six agreements. When the EU Commission refused Switzerland’s demand to renegotiate freedom of movement, the Swiss Parliament took the lead and opted for a (very) light implementation of the popular initiative.

In autumn 2016, it adopted a law that under certain conditions requires Swiss employers to inform Swiss job agencies about vacancies before hiring a non-Swiss, but does not limit the free movement of EU workers to Switzerland.
Deeply dissatisfied with this outcome, the Swiss People’s Party responded early this year with the launch of a new popular initiative, this time explicitly targeting the agreement on the free movement of persons.

In two years or so Swiss citizens will again have to vote, and to choose between more control over immigration or the continuation of the strategy of smooth, bilateral integration in the EU.
According to a poll carried out in the aftermath of the 2014 popular vote, the vast majority of voters who supported the “Stop mass immigration” initiative were ready to risk the termination of the bilateral agreements if that was the price to pay to control immigration. Yet there is obviously a difference between being ready to take the risk of termination and being ready to endorse termination. In fact, according to the same survey a majority of Yes voters did not agree that the initiative contradicted the agreement on the free movement of persons and would put paid to the bilateral agreements. Had they anticipated the intransigence of the EU Commission, perhaps they would have evaluated the argument differently.

More on this: Sciarini, Pascal, Lanz, Simon and Alessandro Nai (2015) “Till immigration do us part? Public opinion and the dilemma between immigration control and bilateral agreements.” Swiss Political Science Review 21(2): 271-286.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Brexit blog, nor the LSE."
Pascal Sciarini is Professor of Swiss and Comparative Politics at the University of Geneva.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/15/switzerland-wanted-more-immigration-controls-but-economic-self-interest-will-probably-prevail/

The EFTA trap. As we can read above, being in the EU through the backdoor via EFTA is a trap and has deep rooted consequences. As we leave the EU, EFTA if what is happening to Switzerland is anything to go by, is not an option.

Being trapped in a 66% reliance on the EU/EEA single market with Switzerland is being held over a barrel, and must jump to the EU tunes, every time a bilateral agreement comes up for renewal. The consequences of being in the EU via the backdoor through EFTA is a scenario that is loaded with problems waiting at the end of any bilateral agreements, when it seems the intransigence, of the EU who hold all the cards for access to their single market, will use that access to control EFTA country, with different views on other policy areas.

Mostly, just read your post, sorry no, I did not get the joke.

Jura I can only speak for myself. I am very aware that Switzerland is an EFTA country. I can confidently say that lemongrove is also aware that Switzerland is an EFTA country, because of the previous threads when this has been discussed.

Although Switzerland is an EFTA country, you will of course know that you are in the EU/EEA by the back door, and being Swiss and I gathered from you post now living in Switzerland, or at least resident there at the time of your post, you will be aware that the relationship with the EU is not an easy one. You will also be aware that the Swiss people have rejected free movement, causing all sorts of problems as outline in the article below:
"Tensions between Switzerland and the EU have increased in recent days after the EU granted Swiss stock exchanges access to EU markets for only one year. The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation (called MiFID II/MiFIR), will come into force on January 3. Swiss officials slammed the decision to allow access for only a year, calling it discriminatory, and threatened to retaliate.
Switzerland is not a member of the EU but the current feud comes as Britain is negotiating its withdrawal from the EU. Those talks will include redefining their mutual trade relationship.
By contrast Switzerland and the EU have been engaged in "framework" treaty negotiations for some time as Brussels seeks to replace more than 100 bilateral trade agreements which regulate its relationship with Switzerland.
"The bilateral path is important," Leuthard told the Swiss newspaper Sonntags Blick. "We therefore have to clarify our relationship with Europe. We have to know in which direction to go. Therefore a fundamental referendum would be helpful."
Talks on the far-reaching agreement advanced last month after the Bern government agreed to increase its contribution to the EU budget."

"The deal
The deal was intended to ensure that Switzerland adopts relevant EU laws in exchange for enhanced access to the bloc's single market, which is crucial for Swiss exports.
But the deal faces opposition from the anti-EU Swiss People's Party (SVP), which is currently the largest voting bloc in parliament.
Leuthard, who steps down from the rotating presidency at the end of the year, said the latest row had not overshadowed her year in the rotating office.
"Of course, the differences with Brussels are now in focus," she said in the newspaper Blick. "Here our attitude is clear - for the EU to link such a technical thing like stock exchange equivalency with a political question like the framework treaty that is not possible."
"We do not accept such a power play!" she added. "But it's part of politics, we have to endure that."
Leuthard said she understood Swiss suspicion towards the EU, but said there is no alternative to reaching an agreement with the bloc that generates about 66 percent of Swiss trade.
"We can strengthen the cooperation with India and China, but the EU remains central," she said. "We need a mechanism and regulated relationship with the EU that would also prevent political games like we are having at the moment."
bik/aw (Reuters, AFP)

www.dw.com/en/switzerlands-president-doris-leuthard-calls-for-referendum-on-eu-relationship/a-41923697

So, although Switzerland is not technically in the EU, you will be aware as we are that the EFTA arrangements have trapped the EFTA country's into deeper and deeper engagement and acceptance of further EU controls in return for access to the single market. As you can see in the article, Switzerland being dependent for 66% of their trade on the single market access, is really being held over a barrel as bilateral agreements are coming to an end.
As reported in the article above: "Tensions between Switzerland and the EU have increased in recent days after the EU granted Swiss stock exchanges access to EU markets for only one year. The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation (called MiFID II/MiFIR), will come into force on January 3. Swiss officials slammed the decision to allow access for only a year, calling it discriminatory, and threatened to retaliate."
There would seem little room for manoeuvre, when 66% of Swiss eggs are in one single basket, that belongs to the EU/EEA.
If anyone ever thought that an EFTA solution to Brexit and access to the single market and customs union was an option, the experience of Switzerland should be stand as a warning, that it is not.

My late husband (English by birth) used to say I had a much better command of the English language than he (particularly grammar) and a much better knowledge of the history of Britain.
I think this is not uncommon. I've often had comments from my British born friends on the lines of: ”my spelling/grammar is awful and we didn't do much history in school.”

Bravo, so well said. And Switzerland is not in the EU lol.
It would be so interesting for Lemongrove, Allyg and a few more, to take a DNA test.

Now perhaps I can say I am more British than some who were just born to it ... As I had to swear my allegiance to HRH and her descendants, in pre EU days, and prove my knowledge, integration and worth, in pre EU days. How can you say someone who has lived in the UK for 40 years, and been British for 45 years, totally bilingual, integrated with UK Degree and full time jobs, Uk kids and grand-kids, is not as British as you? Showing true colours, hey. Just like some here in rural Switzerland say I am not really Swiss, as I lived too long in UK ... lol.

This discussion on being British/feeling British etc I find very strange. If I had to explain my 'being' to an alien it would be something like this:

I am Swedish. I cannot say that I am proud to be Swedish just because I was born there. I just happened to be born to Swedish parents in Sweden.

I am European; not because Sweden is in the EU but because Sweden is geographically a part of Europe. I am convinced that if I could go back many centuries I would find that some of my ancestors have come from various parts of Europe, including Britain.

But more important to me than being Swedish/European is the fact that I am a human being and as such part of the human race on planet Earth. Don't build walls, build bridges.

lemongrove, if you married a Swiss man when young, got Swiss nationality, became totally bilingual and integrated, studied, worked and played in Switzerland, yes it would make you Swiss... and British too. And perhaps even you may feel European ...

A huge percentage of the British (and Swiss) population were not born in the UK or CH ... My OH was not either, he was born in South Africa and came to UK (his grandfather and father were British, although he dad was born in SA) when he was two. So I suppose in your eyes he is not British either. Like any from the Windrush generation.

Why do the right wing brexit press constantly attack parliamentary democracy?