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If there was another EU referendum...

(1001 Posts)
Pollaidh Tue 03-Jul-18 18:13:46

Would those who voted Leave still do so? And why? I am genuinely trying to look outside my Remain bubble, but the logic of Leave still continues to elude me. I am asking Gransnet because apparently older people were most likely to vote to Leave.

Diana54 Thu 02-Aug-18 07:17:46

It seems to me that the future EU relationship is impossible to predict whatever any poll may say. It is clear Theresa May is putting a lot of effort into her plan but compromises she will make will mean it's even less acceptable to our MPs.

I'm not expecting a second referendum, mainly because Labour support would be needed and Corbyn is more interested in a general election than a referendum. That election would of course be fought on Brexit lines and because the Tories have been so divided and handled negotiations so badly Corbyn will win.

What Brexit policy under Corbyn, Boris or any other PM next year is impossible to predict, that's exactly the approach Barnier is taking, what a mess.

Allygran1 Tue 31-Jul-18 02:07:30

The Sky poll questions and results.

On the impact of Brexit, 42% of Britons now think it will have a negative effect on themselves personally, up eight points; 18% think it will not affect them either way, and 31% think it will be good.

Adding together: no affect either way of 18% and 31% who think it will be good the total is 49% against 42% who think it will have a negative affect

A majority now think that Brexit will be actively bad for the economy (52%) and the country overall (51%), a rise by four points and five points respectively

small sample: only a sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018.

One in three think Brexit will be good for the economy (35%), with 9% saying it won’t have an impact, while 40% think Brexit will be good for the country, with 5% saying it will have no effect.

Adding 35% who think Brexit will be good for the economy plus 9% who say it won't have an impact is 44% who do not think Brexit will be bad for the economy.

45% think Brexit will be good for the Country. By adding 40% plus 5% who say it will have no effect.

The public by 50% to 40% support a referendum asking the public to choose between leaving the EU with the deal suggested by the government, leaving the EU without a deal, and not leaving the EU – 10% answered don’t know

This referendum question looks pretty much 50/50 on a very small sample of 1466 in an on-line poll. The 10% who don't know, can be taken to be for or against I took it to be for.

Asked to choose between those options, not leaving the EU would be the preferred option for 48%, with 27% preferring to leave the EU with no deal, and 13% choosing the government deal – 8% say they would not vote, 3% don’t know.

48% would prefer remaining in the EU. 27% leave with no deal plus 13% leave with the Government deal a total of 40% wanting to leave and 11% available votes. Very close although on such a small on line sample of only 1466 the poll cannot be considered representative

Leave voters would prefer no deal to the government deal by 51% to 22%, and Conservative voters would prefer no deal to the government deal by 44% to 21%

Leave voters wanting no deal 51% Leave voters wanting the Government deal 22% a total of 73% wanting to leave the EU. Conservative voters preferred no deal 44% and Conservative voters wanting the government deal 21% a total of 65% still wanting to leave .

^Were a referendum to take place asking for second preferences, in the final round remaining in the EU would have a clear lead over no deal Brexit by 59% to 41%, excluding those answering don’t know and those who would not vote.

This result is so obscure the figures need clarification especially on such a small sample on-line poll. Interestingly the option's of remain or no deal Brexit are the only two given, whilst in other questions the Government Brexit option has been included, I wonder why it was excluded in this question? . The question might have been more properly put to remain to no deal Brexit, and remain to Government deal Brexit* As with the leave question.

:: *Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. Sky Data is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its
rules*.
Polls and figures of small samples and on-line is questionable results.

Allygran1 Tue 31-Jul-18 00:49:06

Perhaps Government Papers and the Diaries of a chap who was actually there at the time might add to our knowledge. It is along cut and paste.

stuartcrow.com/wp/the-miners-thatcher-vs-wilson/

Based on these figures from the government about 290 mines closed under Wilson in all his time in office, and about 160 under Thatcher. Because the figures are based on year end totals of pits operating, it’s not possible to be precise, but the relative scale of those numbers is clear. So why isn’t Wilson execrated by the Left for his part in the decline of coal mining?
I remember well the tragedy of the miners’ strike of 1984/5, which was a response to the planned closure of just 23 pits under the MacGregor Plan, but not any upheaval in the 1960s when a much larger programme passed without the level of unrest we saw later on. One reason may be that in fact the programme of closures could and should have been much more rapid.
The argument about the impact of the closures of the 1980s will go on. But it should be informed by an appreciation of the huge losses incurred by the National Coal Board, the buying-off of the National Union of Mineworkers over many years by successive governments, and the panicky politicking of Labour in office. The truth is that while Wilson closed a huge number of mines, he left many open which he might have closed, and his reputation should suffer on two counts which appear initially contradictory.
I wanted to remind myself of the flavour of politics of the Wilson era. For all his faults, Wilson is an under-rated Prime Minister, who had to contend with tremendous forces of social change, economic change (some of that self-inflicted decline, true), and international change. He was attacked for being gimmicky, for liking an expedient, but at least it was a testament to his speed of thought that he was able to keep pulling rabbits out of hats. As an instinctive politician he was far more skillful than anyone I can think of active now. It is impossible to imagine Callaghan or George Brown doing any better, or Maudling. Heath became a proven failure. Macleod, Healey or Powell are all great “what ifs?” who weren’t close enough to the summit at that time.
As it goes with party leaders, so it goes too with diarists and memoir-writers. It is still the case, nearly 40 years after their publication, that nobody has written anything to touch Richard Crossman’s three-volume Diaries of a Cabinet Minister as an impression of government and politics. Alistair Campbell or Chris Mullin perhaps run him close. So naturally I turned to this long-term friend and close collaborator of Wilson to see what he’d recorded about coal. Crossman never had direct responsibility for anything to do with the industry, but his “political antennae” were receptive (although they often led him to perform bizarre looking U-turns) and he grew in Cabinet seniority over the course of the government. A few extracts from his diaries, detailing Cabinet or Cabinet Committee discussions, follow.
June 4th 1965: “We were confronted with a very characteristic recommendation from Fred Lee, our trade-union Minister of Power. His main concern seemed to be that we should on no account give any kind of tapering subsidies to help declining coalfields such as those in Scotland and South Wales. It’s extraordinary how a Department can get a Minister down. It would have been difficult to conceive nine months ago that Mr Lee would have been opposed to any kind of help for the coalminers and blind to the fact that tapering subsidies are politically essential”.
So almost 20 years before the MacGregor Plan, Labour were grappling with the reality that mining was in decline and that subsidies during run-down were required to make it politically palatable. In the event, subsidies were approved, indeed almost forced on Lee, by Cabinet, although far from being “tapering” relief, they became a constant feature as mine closures were delayed for political reasons.
The Crossman Diary extracts:
August 4th 1965: “After I had left Cabinet yesterday afternoon there had been a deadlock on coal prices [charged to the consumer], so the problem had been pushed back to EDC [the top Cabinet economics policy committee] this afternoon. Callaghan had all the logic and arguments on his side. They were rehearsed by Fred Lee, the Minister of Power, who reminded us that last March he had asked for the necessary increase and it had been postponed because of the municipal elections. He had asked for it again in June and on that occasion it had been postponed because of the incomes policy. ‘Every postponement,’ he said, ‘costs us several million pounds a week. For God’s sake give us the increase quickly and in the right places. Put coal prices up in the unremunerative areas – Wales and Scotland and Lancashire – while keeping them steady where the coal actually makes a profit, in the East Midlands and the West Riding’. George Brown’s reply was that at the present juncture an increase would be tantamount to political suicide…Callaghan turned round and said, ‘Some time we have to face reality. That time has come now. We ought to put the prices up and keep the wages steady’.”
Crossman then records a raging row between George Brown, opposing price increases, and Callaghan, favouring them, before Crossman asked if:
“‘…*we could make this year’s £50m deficit [about £850m today] at the Coal Board part of the general write-off?’ Callaghan, forced to reply, said ‘Well, of course it’s technically possible’. So I then remarked, ‘Well, in that case, I am on George Brown’s side’. When he’d finished the count [of votes round the table] George Brown said he had a majority on his side…the seven to five majority for economic madness but for political sanity.*”
Clearly, the economic case for coal industry rationalisation was overwhelming, to eliminate losses which, accruing to a nationalised industry, were eating up the wealth of the whole nation. On September 1st 1965, Crossman notes
“…poor Fred Lee was left speechless, with the vast Coal Board losses piling up.”
Those are from the first volume of Diaries of a Cabinet Minister, and in the period covered by the second volume the *Wilson government accepts that a plan of closures must proceed. The plan for rationalising the industry was debated in the Commons on July 18th 1967, Crossman writing (as Leader of the House) of Labour MPs from mining constituencies that:
“…provided they could make their protest these miners felt that they were bound to support the Government in an action which really meant the destruction of the mining industry.* What these miners’ MPs showed was a not very edifying loyalty, because people should not be as loyal as that to a Government which is causing the total ruin of their industry. As the night went on I was pleased that they were so pleased to have me there but I was also shocked by their pathetic lack of fight”.
This is a revealing passage, because it illustrates that even such a renowned intellectual as Crossman supposed that an industry should be sustained indefinitely in defiance of the facts, and for all the venom Labour MPs produce these days about Thatcher or the fate of the pits, they did little at a time when they were in power. In the event, Wilson delayed the closures on political grounds because he didn’t want to add to the usual increase in unemployment over the following winter. However Crossman notes on November 21st 1967 Dick Marsh’s (now the Minister of Power) protest that pit closures were justified because
“…you can’t sell any more coal and we’ve already got some 30 million tons of stocks piled up and there’s no more room to pile coal”.
On February 12th 1968, there is some passing discussion of the proposal to build a coal-fired aluminium smelter in Scotland (“economically ruinous in the sense that the [coal] price would have to be subsidized”). As an alternative to the smelter as a means of eliminating large piles of surplus coal, *Wilson was considering building a new coal-fired power station alongside the nuclear one at Seaton Carew despite
“figures showing that a coal-fired station would load us up for 30 years with inefficient plant and cost far more…Of course in economic terms this proposal was a scandal.”*
Lord Robens was Chairman of the NCB, and was part of that generation of Labour politicians like Wilson, Callaghan, and Brown who seemed destined for great things. But he lacked stomach for the fight, and took the NCB job, where before long he was known as “Old King Coal” in a chauffered Daimler with NCB1 for a licence plate. In the 10 years this Labour grandee and former darling of the union barons held the post, between 1961 and 1971, about 300,000 miners lost their jobs and around 400 pits closed. Many of those that remained did so, as the extracts above suggest, in an equivocal relationship with economic reality.
As a consequence of the1967 Fuel White Paper, Robens expected that coal mining would have ended in Scotland, Wales and Durham by 1980. The number of jobs in the industry would contract from 387,000 in 1967 to 65,000 by 1980. At the start of the 1984 strike, there were still almost 200,000 miners. Some of that is because there was a brief rally for coal after the 1973 oil crisis, but it was mostly because of union power and the political weakness of Wilson and Heath. The industry still required subsidy, despite the challenges to other fuel sources posed by the oil crisis. *Figures below are for the 10 years after 1973, in £m, from a written answer in Hansard in 1984:
1973–74 239.8
1974–75 46.1
1975–76 —
1976–77 11.1
1977–78 24.0
1978–79 117.7
1979–80 189.2
1980–81 175.0
1981–82 455.1
1982–83 386.0
By the time Thatcher came to power, she was faced by trade unions drunk with hubris, who had tested the mettle of Parliamentary democracy in the preceding years; and a National Coal Board that had for too long been protected from the realities of modern economics. In the 60s, the impact of pit closures had been muffled by an economy and employment transitioning into new areas. But the fundamental weakness of Labour policy at the same time, of failing to devalue sterling, of succumbing to the unions, of pursuing statist models of economic direction, all these damned the economy to the stagnation of the 1970s. Labour damned the people displaced from the coal industry when eventually final rationalisation took place to a far greater hardship than need have been the case. I can understand why feelings run high about Thatcher in former coalmining areas, but the fury blinds those who express it to the failures of Labour in power over many years. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see coal mining return to areas it has left, if it can be done economically and without burdening the state. The proud traditions of those communities, stretching back generations, are exactly the sorts of things the Tory Party should be seeking to preserve where possible.
A final point: there has been a lot of coverage of the reaction in the old Durham coalfield to Thatcher’s death. This PDF lists the closures of Durham pits, year by year from 1950-93. 15 pits closed under Thatcher. Under Wilson, 58. I mentioned the nuclear plant at Seaton Carew, which happens to be on the edge of the Durham coalfield, and it operates to this day. Wilson never built the coal-fired power station he intended as a compensation to the Durham miners who felt betrayed by the construction of a nuclear plant.

MamaCaz Mon 30-Jul-18 22:39:48

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-margaret-thatcher-closed-1844712

If this is to believed, there are two sides to every story:

" During Harold Wilson’s government more mines were closed than under Thatcher. But our closures had been agreed with the union and the National Coal Board on the basis that those mines didn’t have enough coal left or were genuinely economically unviable.

If you add up the figures from 1947 to 1997 you see the real picture??– 345 pits were closed under Labour governments but 597 went under the Tories.

A total of 235,000 mining jobs were lost under Labour but 458,000 under the Conservatives. "

lemongrove Mon 30-Jul-18 21:48:20

Ally that made interesting reading,( the coal mines closures) who would have thought that a Labour government would have closed so many?
Puts things into perspective.

NfkDumpling Mon 30-Jul-18 21:23:46

So, if there were a second referendum Varian, and leave won again by about the same margin, you would accept it and not continue to demand a third referendum?

varian Mon 30-Jul-18 11:43:15

Offering second Brexit referendum would strengthen PM against Tory Brexiters, says Mandelson

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/30/post-brexit-scheme-for-eu-nationals-should-be-prototype-for-national-id-card-scheme-says-thinktank-politics-live

Although I've never been a big fan of Peter Mandleson, I think he is right on this. A second vote would strengthen TM and that is one of the reasons the ultra-brexiteers of the ERG are so adamantly opposed to it.

MamaCaz Mon 30-Jul-18 11:14:10

And that, gillybob, is probably a major reason why committed leavers are so fiercely opposed to a second vote - fear that those who didn't vote last time, thinking that a remain vote was guaranteed, would turn out in large numbers to vote that way now if given the opportunity.

gillybob Mon 30-Jul-18 11:03:37

I honestly think that a lot of people didn't bother to vote Remain, because they really didn't believe the Leave campaign would have a hope in hell pf winning. I know people who voted Leave and I know people who didn't vote at all believing that the rest of us "would do it for them" .

varian Mon 30-Jul-18 10:51:07

That is not the point I am making gillybob. We all know that although it was only about 17m out of about 65m in the UK who voted leave, they were , by a narrow margin, the majority of those who voted.

My point is that it is only a minority of these leave voters who are inclined towards civil unrest, but they could cause a great deal of damage.

MamaCaz Mon 30-Jul-18 10:50:14

In answer to that first question, gillybob, I would say yes. Whatever the outcome of such a second vote, it should, hopefully be made with a much clearer picture of what exactly leaving would entail, and therefore with much more legitimacy to be binding.

Decisions in everyday life, from huge business deals to pulling out of a marriage engagement, can be reversed right up until the last moment if there are doubts, so I don't see why we, the people, should be denied the opportunity to make a last-minute decision on something as important as this, based on up-to-date knowledge, when the time comes.

gillybob Mon 30-Jul-18 10:47:37

But it clearly wasn't the minority who voted Leave though Varian . I can honestly say you could have knocked me down with a feather with the results but clearly there are a lot of people with axes to grind. Perhaps we will never know the real reason why so many voted to leave and would do so again if there was a second vote.

varian Mon 30-Jul-18 10:35:43

I am in favour of a vote when the terms are known, with the option of remaining in the EU. However I am not sure how the various excesses of the leave campaign, and the media moguls who have their own agenda, could be curbed. I suspect that they would step up their shady activities and actively try to whip up outrage amongst the minority who are inclined to cause civil unrest.

gillybob Mon 30-Jul-18 10:20:03

and what if the winning vote changed to "Remain" MamaCaz ? would those who won the first time around just accept it?

Personally I just wish it would go away and we could get back to normal. I voted Remain because I knew it would affect manufacturing and jobs, but I know people who voted Leave just because they thought it would stop immigration. I can't imagine they will have changed their mind.

MamaCaz Mon 30-Jul-18 10:12:24

gillybob I don't for a moment think that there should be a third or a fourth vote, but personally think it is very reasonable to hold a second one, once the terms of our exit were known. If nothing else, it would serve to legitimize the original referendum outcome.

gillybob Mon 30-Jul-18 09:26:56

I’m not sure about second votes . What would be the point if we all voted one way knowing we could change our mind if we didn’t like the outcome . Then why not a third vote or a fourth ?

Working in the manufacturing industry I am disappointed with the way things are going but not in the slightest bit surprised. Was the EU really ever going to lie down and let us have it our way ? Not at all. Many of our larger customers are already taking drastic steps to protect their businesses .

MamaCaz Mon 30-Jul-18 08:53:12

I have long said that there needs to be a second vote when the details are known, and that it would be a perfectly democratic thing to do. However, someone (a leaver, as it happens) pointed out to me that that wouldn't work - if that was promised, the EU would quite deliberately be totally uncompromising in the negotiations, to maximise the chances of us voting to remain in the second vote.
I could see his point - that this could happen if a second vote was offered from the start . If he is right, that doesn't mean that one can't be be offered once the final deal is known, and I am hoping that the Government already intends to do that when that time comes.
Maybe I am a hopeless optimist - only time will tell!

gillybob Mon 30-Jul-18 07:47:13

Water cooler? Coffee machine ? What a luxurious working environment you have grandad ! We’ve got a kettle ( not even a fast boil) and council juice . wink

Grandad1943 Mon 30-Jul-18 07:39:29

Diana54, I think that the Sky poll published today (30/07/18) does demonstrate that many who voted in favour of Britain leaving the European Union are now changing their views. Information is a wonderful thing, and there has been very much more information on the effects of Brexit for all to consume since the previous referendum.

The above I believe has obviously brought many to think again.

Anyway, off to work and no doubt Brexit and the Sky poll will be the topic of discussion around the water cooler and coffee machine today, just like many other days. wink

Mamie Mon 30-Jul-18 07:37:14

I think that there will be a group of leavers who will not change their minds, but there will be another group who voted leave, kept quiet about it and have now changed their minds. Most importantly there is now a demographic swing of young remainers who are eligible to vote.

Diana54 Mon 30-Jul-18 07:27:36

I'm afraid that a second vote would produce the same result the leavers that I speak to are not for changing their opinion. I see one of 2 outcomes either a Norway type deal with EU pulling the strings, or, no deal at all. The EU don't seem to accept any of the cherry picking trade deals that Brexiteers are proposing
Either way animosity in parliament will be so great that there will be a general election that will produce a hung parliament again, quite likely with Corbyn as PM.
Not the end of the world but I don't see how any of this brings greater prosperity, especially for the poorest in society

Grandad1943 Mon 30-Jul-18 07:13:47

crystaltipps, I believe that the Sky poll published this morning may well turn out to be a very significant turning point in this whole sorry Brexit saga.

I have become far more convinced over the last few weeks and days that a second referendum will be held as ever more has become clear to the public in regard to the effects of Brexit on Britain.

crystaltipps Mon 30-Jul-18 06:14:54

Public opinion now shifting sharply against Brexit. 78% think the government is doing badly and a majority believing the outcome will be bad for Britain.

news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shifting-sharply-against-brexit-sky-data-poll-reveals-11453220

MaizieD Sun 29-Jul-18 22:34:07

They impress the people they're intended for, varian...

Day6 Sun 29-Jul-18 22:33:58

Has anyone else noticed that the quality of posts tends to be in inverse proportion to the quantity?

And here we go again...Remainers superiority complex, sneering at those with opposing views. Many may appreciate that Leavers like Allygran and others have done their homework and come armed with facts and figures - ones you don't like.

Sneer in that way at any other section of society and you' be hung out to dry for your elitist snobbery.

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