Likely consequenses of brexit

It is true that planes flew before we were members of the EU but that will not work now as many more more complex agreements have been made. People also need to know that these agreements and other bi-lateral ones could not be agreed overnight.

I'd suggest that Leavers have a close read of this blog post from Richard North which deals with the subject of aviation:

An extract:-

At a meeting in Brussels on June 12 with representatives of the EU-27, with the UK not present, Filip Cornelis, aviation director of the Commission's transport department, is reported to have told them that, if the UK leaves without a full aviation agreement, all flights between Britain and the EU would cease.

But this, says Booker*, is only the start of it. He refers specifically to the Notice to Stakeholders issued by the commission in April which warns all concerned of the "legal repercussions" for aviation of the UK's decision to leave the EU to become a "third country".

Booker notes that this sets out, in just over two-and-a-half pages, how every single activity of our aviation sector, from the operation of airports to the manufacturing and maintaining of aircraft, is only legally authorised under a mighty thicket of EU law. And the moment we leave the EU all this will "cease to be valid".

Thus he says, with every justification, "without an incredibly complex operation to ensure that every tiniest detail of this legal framework is replaced, in ways not just acceptable to the EU but compliant with international law, much of British aviation will simply come to a halt". Even our right to fly in any international airspace is governed by a mass of international agreements to which we are only party as members of the EU.

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86918

*The Booker referred to is a colleague of Dr North's who writes a column for (I think) the Sunday Telegraph

I'd remind people that Dr North has spent the last 40 or so years being deeply opposed to the EEC/EU, has studied its legal and regulatory framework in great depth and had worked out a detailed plan for a phased withdrawal from the EU with minimum disruption. It can be found on his website if anyone is interested, though it's of academic interest only as it's never likely to be implemented...

www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

yes, me too.

3 campaigns would certainly split support but things have reached such a stage of unmanageable chaos that some form of drastic intervention is needed.
This time we'd have to have a firm mandate laying down exactly what would be needed to constitute a clear majority decision.
Must admit that my reaction when I heard of Justine Greening's statement was relief that someone was standing up and saying what I want to hear.

If there were another referendum I think it should not be a rushed job like the last one. There would need to be a lot of information given as to what would happen with a no deal situation and also explanations about many of the agreements the U.K. are in at present because of their membership of the EU but would be out of the minute we left unless a new agreement had been reached. I am thinking of the Open Skies agreement and the recognition of the qualification of Pilots and also aircraft maintenance.

It is true that planes flew before we were members of the EU but that will not work now as many more more complex agreements have been made. People also need to know that these agreements and other bi-lateral ones could not be agreed overnight.

Of course some countries may not wish to have bi lateral agreements with the U.K. -non of those things would be certain.

Taking the worst scenario of all the companies thinking of, or threatening to leave the U.K, how many jobs would be lost? A lot of information would need to be given and provable Fake news punished in some way.

Justine Greening wants a new referendum with three options.
1. Accept the deal on offer at the time
2. Leave with no deal.
3. Remain in EU.
She suggests there should be a first and second preference vote system.
Is that too confusing or is it a realistic assessment of the complex situation?
Three campaigns?

lemongrove, you state that leaving the EU will not be easy, but that does not mean it should not be undertaken.

In that, what do you say to the many thousands who will undoubtedly lose their employment in many industries as those companies relocate to the EU to avoid tariffs and delays to their products in transport.

Do you say nothing to those people lemongrove, taking the view that those jobs and families involved are just "collateral damage".

Gerry Adams is correct in saying that no-one wants a border. Unfortunately, the UK choosing to leave the EU and the EEA means that a hard border between NI and the ROI becomes an absolute legal necessity. Borders are of overwhelming international importance.

The problem we have is that we have lived with the single market and 'frictionless' trade for so long that we appear to have forgotten that it is not the norm and seem strangely unwilling to accept that leaving the EU means hard borders and rigorous customs checks and documentation.

I agree that it should never have been said the process would be easy, and I, like many no doubt, never thought it would be.Some will have believed it though, which is why the truth would have been better.The truth is that it will take time to disentangle ourselves, but because something is difficult and time consuming, doesn’t mean it should never be attempted.
When anyone talks of ‘the public’ they have to remember that they are all different people who have the means to think for themselves and (in the main) can see through glib promises or lies, made by either side.

NfkDumpling, Parliament may well turn down Theresa Mays latest proposals while at the same time it is well recognised that there is no majority it the House of Commons for a "no deal" walk away.
Therefore, it is very possible that a "deadlock" situation will emerge in within our elected parliamentary representatives, and therefore there would be no other option but to have a second referendum or a general election.

I don't think Leavers understand what walking away with no deal would actually mean in practical terms.

It doesn't mean that life would go on more or less as usual.
It would mean that on 30th March 2019 the UK comes to a halt.

Because every interaction we have with Europe and the rest of the world is covered by an extensive legal and regulatory framework, much of which we are part of by virtue of our membership of the EU. When our membership lapses that immediately lapses.
So, no flights, no sales of cars, imposition of customs checks leading to paralysis of international transport and food shortages. Disruption of electricity supplies as the interconnectors which enable us to buy supply from European countries immediately become illegal and are switched off...
And that's just a fraction of it.

And the government is belatedly becoming aware of it; why do you think they're talking of emergency food stocks and floating banks of generators?

When experts kept warning that 43 years of legislative integration would be phenomenally difficult and time consuming to disentangle ourselves from they weren't being 'pro-EU' or 'project fear', they were trying to open the publics' eyes to the complexity and immensity of the task.

Sadly, the public were easily conned by simplistic slogans and lying millionaires....

Grandad1943
Gerry Adams was in TV last week stating that the whole Irish Border thing is a smokescreen thrown up by the EU to try and scupper things. He said 'Northern Ireland doesnt want a border, Southern Ireland doesnt want a border and the rest of the UK doesnt want a border'. I think sometimes we give little credit to the Irish for having moved on from the issues that blighted it. That is not to say there are not the odd potential mischief makers within the community as there are within each country that makes up the UK.
It is a shame that those 'on time' deliveries used to be producd here in the UK before being outsourced to Eastern Europe. Of course we have always imported some food from Europe even before the Common market and exported too. I remember the onion sellers on bikes.
Providing they continue to be paid, suppliers are resourceful and will continue to trade.

The electorate can and did say if they wanted to either remain in the EU or to leave the EU.
Asking them to decide which various policies/choices will be best for the UK in another referendum would be a very bad idea.That’s what we pay those in Parliament to do.

Oh come on! If the electorate couldn’t figure it out last time, what chance do we stand of understanding with a three way, please put in order of preference decision, let alone comprehend the intricacies of Ms May’s proposal when half the MPs obviously can’t. If you think there were lies and half truths being bandied around with the first one ....!

Luckylegs9 we cannot "just come out" without an agreement to do so. To walk away with no deal would create a very high risk of reigniting the war in Northern Ireland which would quickly spread to the mainland, and also destroy the just in time (JIT) delivery network that so much of Britains industry and fresh food supplies to our supermarkets entirely rely on.

If Parliament cannot agree on a way forward the matter has to be returned to the electorate in this country.

I am frustrated over this Brexit to say the least, what a weak lot, let's just come out, deal of no deal, we will be responsible for our own country and not answerable to a crumbling, debt ridden rest of Europe. however bad this shower is in government is is still a million times better than having a red Corbyn and his crew in. What a mess.

Joelsnan
Oh great! It just gets better

jura2 i never mentioned Empire, what i intimated was that discussions and agreement would be in a one to one basis i did not say 50/50. No one would expect this. However there already is a great deal of trade between the two nations which there may be potential to renegotiate on terms appropriate for both parties.
I have said before the EU is like living in a street where you have to seek approval from all the other residents for the colour of your front door and every piece of furniture you buy or sell. Everyone on the street has different colour and furniture preference.

petra it was signed off 30th Oct 2016, however it was only provisionally applied on 21 Sept 2017.
Aparently (according to Reuters and the Guardian 2days ago). Italy intends to scupper the deal!

joelsnan
The eu/Canada trade agreement was finally sealed in 2016. It took 7 years Even better, it is the first agreement the eu has negotiated with another major industrial nation.
As you might remember, this was held up by the region of Wallonia in Belgium which represents 0.7% of the eu population

agreed about his behaviour ... but under any President, do you really think we would ever be dealing with the USA on a one to one equal level? Those days of the British Empire have gone- can't you see?

jura2 yes, i am following Trump circus, but as i have said, he is transient and one man does not a nation make.

jura2 unless the NHS reinstatement bill can be passed through parliament to reverse the current slide into privatisation (which is well on its way) the US would probably have little further impact. We have numerous private enterprises providing goods and services Virgin Healthcare being just one. Many hospitals are tied into PIF agreements which has basically put many hospital buildings into hock with private companies (many overseas investment companys) taking millions in rental payments and dictating service providers and standards of service within their buildings. The EU has facilitated this in part by insisting on open tendering.

a 'one to one' term ...

I am sorry Joelsnan, but really, have you been listening to Trump at all over last few months, and especially during and since his visit. America First - really does mean America First ...

Oh and forgot the NHS

exitbrexit.net/post-brexit-trade-deal-usa/

jura2
Considering all the doom propagated about US food, the mortality eate if its citizens is remarkable, you would imagine them dying on an industrial scale from chlorine poisoning or birthing hundreds grossly abnormal offspring with all the GM food.(many do seem to have Barry Gibb gnashers).
A trade deal with US would be on one to one terms rather than the current 1 to 27. I understand that a free trade agreement between the EU and Canada concluded in 2014 still has not been fully applied there has been a problem with the snail paced bureaucracy within the EU for decades.