Likely consequenses of brexit

Economic growth is already 2pc lower than it would have been without a vote for Brexit, according to research by UBS released on Monday. The bank’s calculations also estimate that investment is 4pc lower and consumption 1.7pc down.

The research predicts that the real effective sterling exchange rate, or the value of the pound in terms of other currencies and relative to the price of goods, is 12pc depreciated. This weaker currency fed into the analysts' predictions of inflation being 1.5pc above where it would have been, partly caused by higher costs of imported goods.

The bank came up with the figures using a “synthetic control method”, where data from similar economies is used to make a model of what the UK would be like had the public not voted to leave the European Union. They then compared the real UK economy to this so-called “Frankenstein” model.

The authors of the report note that this 2.1pc cut to GDP is roughly equal to what the most optimistic forecasts predicted the entire impact of Brexit would be, despite the fact that the UK has not yet left the EU.

They argue that this effect has gone relatively unnoticed so far as it was masked by the uptick in the global economy, which helped to buoy the UK. Despite the hit to GDP being higher than predicted by many at this stage, the authors write that it is to be expected for some costs to begin before the UK officially leaves the EU. “It is intuitive that Brexit brings with it uncertainty so that part of the costs related to Brexit occur before the UK has actually exited the EU”, they write.

“As is natural for anyone driving towards a cliff - in this case UK firms likely facing a sharp increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers - one would expect them to start hitting the brakes: i.e. scale back employment and investment decisions as uncertainty mounts”, states the report.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/03/economic-growth-already-2pc-lower-would-without-brexit-says/

I read a piece today from someone obviously working in the pharmaceutical industry. They were explaining why it will not be straightforward for other suppliers of various medications to be sourced after Brexit.
Although it is true that the U.K. does have pharma companies producing drugs because of the high cost of development of the drugs each company specialises in a few areas - hence the problem there will be with insulin and all the rigmarole with the paperwork etc it would take a year to negotiate new supplies or even the same ones with a different route. Some medicines need three years to come through.
All very worrying to anyone with an ongoing health problem.
Unfortunately I could not get the link to copy,,

A former chief of the UK’s naval staff has said the nation does not have enough ships to patrol its waters, warning of “disastrous” consequences after Brexit.

Ex-First Sea Lord, Lord West of Spithead, said the “insufficient” number of ships had been exposed by recent clashes between British and French fishermen over scallops. Rocks and smoke bombs were hurled at British fishing vessels in the English Channel during skirmishes on Tuesday. French mariners are angry about a domestic ban preventing them from harvesting the scallop-rich region while British boats have free rein to fish.

“Co-ordination of the few ships we do have is fragmented. In theory, co-ordination is exercised by the co-located Joint Maritime Operations Command Centre.

“But this command centre lacks a single commander with authority to order government departments to take action, and therefore is unable to exercise proper command.

“After Brexit, this will be disastrous.”

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scallop-war-brexit-latest-fishing-protect-waters-warning-sea-lord-west-a8518091.html

Did anybody catch the latest news conference from Barnier and Raab a few minutes ago? It was on Sky News but the BBC did not show it live.

It is looking a little more promising when Barnier says :

The EU is prepared to build an ambitious partnership with the Uniuted Kingdom "

They covered various subjects and whatever side of the argument you fall on it may hold some answers to the questions that have been ongoing , daily for 2 years now.

Brexit to have greatest negative impact on regions outside London. will make people outside London worse off, two reports have found.

Household bills will rise by between £245 and £961 a year after Brexit, with a disproportionately adverse impact on lower-income groups and people in Northern Ireland, Wales, the Midlands and the north-east, they say.

The Institute for Public Policy Research found a hard Brexit would hit those out of London the most because household spending patterns involved more goods and services that will be hit by price rises. “Our findings suggest that post-Brexit price rises will squeeze incomes more in parts of the UK outside London,” said Marley Morris, IPPR senior research fellow.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/04/brexit-greatest-negative-impact-regions-outside-london

People in London voted Remain, so perhaps there might be some perverse justice in the fact they would be less damaged by brexit that folk in other regions who voted leave. I do not live in London. I voted Remain, as did many folk all over the country. I do not assume that Londoners would be happy about this.

None of us should be happy about the madness that is brexit, where our country could be relegated to the status of a "third country" and all of us would suffer the consequenses for the rest of our lives (except of course for a tiny number of ultra-rich speculators who might laugh all the way to the bank about how they fooled so many ordinary folk into voting for this disaster).

I think that the EU may well decide to look again at the four freedoms and other rules. That is why we should be inside of the EU, able to exercise our influence, and our vote.

POGS
Let's not forget that Nick Clegg said ( June this year in the FT) that the eu has to look again at one of the 4 freedoms: the free movement of people.

what eu political ideal would that be
Mmm, give me a minute. Could it be the expansion of the eu, just a guess.
Anyone got any other idears what it could mean?

Varian

2008: Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg calls for an "in-out" referendum on UK membership of the EU.

" The Lib Dems say they would abstain if the Conservatives successfully call for a referendum on the treaty - they say they would instead try to insert an amendment into the European Union (Amendment) Bill demanding one on the wider issue of whether Britain stays in the EU.

Mr Clegg, a former member of the European Parliament, said: "The debate over Britain's future in Europe has been poisoned for too long by a Labour Party that refuses to make the case for it, and an opportunistic Tory Party that actively seeks to undermine it.

"We need to draw the poison from that debate - to settle the matter one way or another.

"So today I am inviting the Labour and Conservative parties to join with me in calling for the referendum that will settle Britain's European future, once and for all: an in-out referendum."

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7262512.stm

It is interesting to read what was said regarding the Lisbon Treaty and the EU by looking up Hansard.

I just find the irony of who the past politicians were that once promised an In/Out referendum and their positions to date.

It is part of the regionalisation of the UK in preparation for the furtherance of the EU political ideal.

What EU political ideal would that be?

I think the result of the poll is fairly meaningless.

Without knowing the details of this particular poll I would suspect that a You Gov poll would be more meaningful than a Daily Express poll as YouGov usually use a representative sample whereas the Express quite likely relied on a self selected sample; i.e readers responding to a poll generated by the Express with no control over the validity of the sample. (though I don't know the details of that one, either...)

Quite, varian; but sometimes making this kind of point on GN is like talking to a brick wall.
How rude humptydumpty

If someone makes assertions that need clarification then they need to be challenged.

Was the YouGov Poll conducted across the whole of the region or just in Bath (or BANES) which voted Remain anyway and has a Lib Dem MP?

Most of Cornwall, for instance, voted to Leave the EU - have they now swung completely the other way, according to the few who were polled?
How many did they poll in each area of the region? Is 1,000 people polled from a total of over 38 million a true representation of what people now think?

I think the result of the poll is fairly meaningless.

The South West as a region is a political concept, not a geographical one. It is part of the regionalisation of the UK in preparation for the furtherance of the EU political ideal.

The LibDems are still pro-EU and also pro having a referendum (or People's vote) on the terms of the deal. If we are presented with the prospect of a very damaging brexit, by accepting the deal or, even worse, leaving with no-deal, then the sensible move would be to rescind Article 50 and Remain in the EU.

Varian

This is an old post of mine that might explain my question.

POGS Wed 03-May-17 20:39:44
I find the ease with which some posters so easily forget that at one time or another in the past Labour / Lib Dems / Conservatives have ALL wanted an EU Referendum.

Who remembers Ed Davey arguing in Parliament for a referendum over the Lisbon Treaty, boy he and the Lib Dems were very angry.

www.libdemvoice.org/newsflash-lib-dems-walk-out-of-house-of-commons-2233.html

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7265516.stm

"Lib Dem ordered out of EU debate

Lib Dem front bencher Edward Davey has been ordered out of the Commons, after angry protests to the deputy speaker.
Mr Davey was annoyed at the decision not to allow MPs to debate and vote on a Lib Dem call for a referendum to be held on the UK's membership of the EU.

Deputy Speaker Sir Michael Lord acted after Mr Davey defied warnings. Fellow Lib Dems then walked out in support.

The Lib Dems support the EU treaty and UK membership of the EU. They oppose a referendum on the treaty itself.

The protest came as MPs began the latest day of debate on the Lisbon Treaty - something the Conservatives, some Labour and some Lib Dem MPs have said should be subject to a referendum.

Points of order

The Lib Dem leadership, who say they would not vote for such a referendum, say the whole issue of Britain's membership of the European Union should be subject of a referendum instead."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15390884

BBC Link above is a Time Line of when Labour/Conservative/Lib Dems have called for EU Referendums.

The LibDems have not changed their view on the EU as far as I know. What do you mean POGS?

Varian

We all know the Lib Dems are fervently the party of Remain.

When did the Lib Dems change their view of the European Union?

Quite, varian; but sometimes making this kind of point on GN is like talking to a brick wall.

I did not remark that 1000 people living in the South-West is a majority, Jalima. I merely reported the results of a properly conducted survey of 1000 people.

What the YouGov survey of South West voters found-

42 vs 35 per cent want a say on any final Brexit deal negotiated by the government
47 vs 27 per cent want a new referendum if talks break down and the UK has to choose between staying in the EU or leaving without a deal (47 vs 27 per cent).
51 vs 49 per cent support staying in the EU
76 vs 24 per cent of Labour voters want to stay in the EU

www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/south-west-brexit-vote-bath-1876881

This reflects a change in views since the referendum.

I think it was varian's remark that 1,000 of people living in the South-West is a majority.

Of course, perhaps a majority of 1,000 people polled would be a more accurate assertion. But why bother with accuracy when you want to make a point?

And the regions of England have changed since I was born. That, of course, may have been part of the future development of the EU - which may change again after Brexit.
Who knows.

As you were, I'll leave you to varian's thread(s).

Ooh, a totally pointless argument developing here. Can anyone join in?
Of course you may

2) from where I'm sitting in the NE BANES looks very like the southwest...
From where I was brought up BANES looks like the West Country to me. The South-West is Devon, Cornwall and possibly part of Somerset.

Excellent post, BTW, Endrel123

Ooh, a totally pointless argument developing here. Can anyone join in?

At 19.51 Jalima refers to varian's poll as being in the Southwest then at 22.25 she appears to rubbish the idea that BANES is in the Southwest..

1) Does this invalidate varian's poll report and 2) from where I'm sitting in the NE BANES looks very like the southwest...

Apologies that should be 5 District councils above. They are North Somerset District Council, Mendip District Council, Taunton District Council, West Somerset District Council along with Bath and North East Somerset District Council, all within the south-west region I would judge

BANES, is an abbreviation of Bath and North East Somerset. It is one of the four District councils within the Somerset County.

Where is it then?