Likely consequenses of brexit

at least you seem happy varian

Britain is now officially a banana republic with constant sunshine, collapsing government and a good football team.

The resignation of David Davis, and the inevitable rigged election between a well-intentioned socialist and a puppet of international finance that will follow, means Britain and its poor-but-smiling natives are now part of the developing world. Economist Norman Steele said: “Look at those barefoot children kicking a ball about in the dust where crops should be growing. They have nothing, but they’re happy. The resignation of David Davis, an incompetent only popular because he understands nothing and was once a soldier, will trigger a collapse of government and a spiralling debt crisis.

The people, indolent and disinterested because of their country’s blazing sun, will pay no attention to an election corrupted by foreign money and wave through the appointment of a despot who’s good on the telly. And then the football team will win the World Cup and make everything seem okay. It’s the full package.”

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/britain-officially-a-banana-republic-20180709175140

The two key hurdles for the Prime Minister on Brexit remain the same.

First, what concessions will the EU force on her? Key European figures have been noticeable by their silence on social media in the last few days. They don’t want to push May over the edge. But eventually they will have to negotiate, and the concessions they demand won’t go down well in a Britain already deeply restless about the existing proposals.

Even the Chequers plan as it stands has been called the “biggest loss of UK sovereignty since accession in 1973” by Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s former ambassador to the EU and no friend of Brexit.

Second, can May get it through Parliament? The PM ordered Labour MPs to be briefed on the Chequers deal in a clear message that she is happy to survive on opposition votes. Yet the briefing went badly and the chances are that Labour would rather defeat the Government on Brexit and force an election.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/10/front-bench-vote-customs-union-coming-brexiteers-will-have-tread/

Note the term "loss of sovereignty". We have sovereignty now and the best way to retain it is to remain in the EU where we will play our part in the introduction of any new regulations, and of course retain our veto.

varian Mon 09-Jul-18 12:42:23
"Unsurprisingly, because he was heavily outnumbered by the brexiters amongst the guests, he was shouted down, but I thought he was the only one to make sense."

Well you would, wouldn't you Varian.

Lemongrove, your post:lemongrove Sun 08-Jul-18 20:45:57
Just read it, and could not agree more.

The Cabinet once again having collective responsibility, meant inevitably that the committed hard Brexit Ministers, would have to resign and will work for Brexit on the back benches. This back stop is good just in case the PM is tempted to get us back into the EU via the back door, as someone said today in Parliament, "making us a satellite of the EU". Although I have to say I do not sense that the PM is being duplicitous. The White Paper will be out this week, that will give a better idea of the UK position outlined by the PM today.

PM repeated today, no single market, no customs union and no free movement, and no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic to honour the Belfast agreement. We can only see what happens next.

Lemongrove, cautious optimism is always a good thing, even as footy supporters.

But....I do worry jura, after all, Croatia are a good team!

Yep, same here re TM.

Theresa May also said she would not call a GE as we know. I am beginning to feel sorry for her, surrounded by backstabbers and people looking after their own interests first. She is certainly the best of a bad lot; Gove anyone?

hey what could go wrong - just chill. Footie on Wednesday ... no worries.

Theresa May said today that Article 50 would not be suspended, but then she has had to contradict herself on many ocassions.

Aaah, an answer to my question, ffrom twitter via Richard North's blog comments:

"Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
The EU has taken the decision on how to distribute the EP seats, see here:http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-7-2018-REV-1/en/pdf …

If A50 is extendend (by unanimity), that new distribution will automatically be postponed until the eventual formal UK exit.

10:29 AM - Jul 9, 2018"

His suggestion was that Article 50 should now be suspended until such time that the detailed terms of both leaving and remaining are known,

That's a bit too sensible really.. (Of course, it should have been done before we invoked A50)

There are doubts about the EU agreeing to extend A50. On the one hand, it gives them (and the UK) more time to prepare for the final deal, or crash out, but on the other hand, elections to the EU parliament take place in June 2019 and our seats have already been reallocated. So would the current UK MEPs stay on as supernumeraries or would we have to have MEP elections too and the 'reallocation' be deferred?

I would not rule out another vote. On The Daily Politics today, Conservative MP, Dr Phillip Lee who resigned from the government because of the brexitshambles, pointed out that the EU position on immigration and freedom of movement is evolving and is likely to change in the near future.

He said that if the government now has an agreed position, it is rather late in the process and the next step is to start negotiating with the EU. (Of course the government's own proposals should have been agreed before Article 50 was triggered and we are now very short of time)

His suggestion was that Article 50 should now be suspended until such time that the detailed terms of both leaving and remaining are known, at which point there should be a People's Vote with the option of leaving or remaining in the EU.

Unsurprisingly, because he was heavily outnumbered by the brexiters amongst the guests, he was shouted down, but I thought he was the only one to make sense.

Since there won’t be another public vote, this is surely enough to satisfy most......if the EU agree to it.
I would have thought so lemongrove - although sometimes, trying to please both sides means ending up pleasing no-one.

Several people I have spoken to who voted Brexit said that they were very happy with the Common Market but not with further and further political integration; they had no wish to cut ties completely.
That is why so many were in a dilemma at the time and put so much thought into their vote.

Actually, I think I am wrong. It wasn't David Davis but Liam Fox who said the EU trade deal after Brexit should be 'easiest in history' to get

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history

Sorry David Davis, I realise you couldn't have thought it was that easy as you spent a whole 4 hours this year in discussion with the EU negotiator Michel Barnier.

www.ft.com/content/9e3aacf0-7b9c-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Yes, the same David Davis Varian. I shudder at the thought of Gove, he is a snake of the first order and not to be trusted as he has shown in the past, a real back stabber. He has of course got the Daily Mail on side, well his wife at least.

I can just imagine MG ringing up DD and encouraging him to resign - ‘go on Dave, we’re all behind you, we’ll go next’

Is that the same David Davis who said that this would be the easiest negotiation in history?

Ah but no doubt his performance on Andrew Marr show yesterday scored him points.
Declarations of support - but did you notice his fingers crossed behind his back?

What will Gove do? It's said he's lined up to replace Davis. Boris may have finally ruled himself out of any chance of becoming Tory leader because of his Flashman like behaviour. Not so the Govester. I wouldn't trust him as far as I could spit but, he's redeemed himself in his current role, having done his best to destroy Justice and education. He's such a self serving little creep - he still wants to be Leader. Theresa needs to wear a stab proof vest if she's daft enough to think she can let him any closer to her and stay standing.

So David Davis has resigned.
"It (May's plan) will leave us in a weak negotiating position"
I don't think Davis is much of a loss but will other cabinet ministers follow? Will there be a coup against May now? What will Boris do?

Changed thread?

can't you see it is all engineered to lead to leave with no deal. The EU just cannot agree to what s proposed, plain cherry picking. If they do, they will also have to agree to Switzerland cherry picking and so on...

Even though a soft Brexit is being touted, after the Cabinet meeting, that still isn’t good enough for some.
Since there won’t be another public vote, this is surely enough to satisfy most......if the EU agree to it.
If they won’t, then we will just have to leave.
We can’t actually twist the EU arms,and they have already been intransigent over everything else.