Exit from Brexit

Varian The Financial Markets rise and fall. People make money by short selling, they make money by taking advantage of the market at any given time, depending on what sort of trading they engage in. That is business. Private investors do the same, the Unions and NHS and many, many other's invest our pension money through their pensions funds, and they do it in all sorts of ways, lending money overnight for one. Lending money, selling share, buying shares. Selling at the right time, buying at the right time. That is what the Financial Services Industries, and Financial Markets do. Why it surprises you surprises me.

Bit of information for you.....

The European Investment Bank will still owe the UK billions of pounds for decades after the country leaves the EU, the institution’s chief has said.
Alexander Stubb said Britain would not get its £3.1 billion, 16 per cent stake back in full until 2054.
The UK, along with the other 27 EU nations, have paid taxpayers money into the EIB to capitalise it. The bank makes loans at low rates to fund infrastructure and other projects, including major schemes in the UK.

Britain’s share is the largest, and it is equal in size to Italy, France, and Germany’s.
“Everyone on both sides of the negotiating table agree that we have to pay back the 3.5 billion euro, basically in cash, and that will happen over a long period, up until 2054, because that's when the loans are amortised,” Mr Stubb told BBC Radio 4 on Friday.

www.google.com/search?European+Investment+Bank+and+Brexit&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

This is estimated and could be as much as up to 10 billion pounds.

This is only a share of the capitalisation money from the UK, not reimbursment of any other membership fee's or savings made from not paying membership fee's or further capitalisation of the EU Investment Bank which of course we will be putting into our UK Investment Bank for UK Projects.

The pound has been lower than this - 10 years ago it was all doom and gloom.

There are other factors in the world apart from brexit that can and do cause financial fluctuations.

So, nellie, that being so, can you account for the fact that the pound has been steadily falling since June 2016 (and would have fallen further had the BoE not stepped in with £60billion quantitative easing).

And why did Farage's buddies make fortunes on short selling the pound on 23rd/24th June 2016? If they hadn't foreseen a drop in the pound on the announcement of the Leave 'win' why would they have bothered? Short selling is a risky business

www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

This explains what short selling is:

www.investorguide.com/article/11716/the-pros-and-cons-of-short-selling-stocks-igu/

A convincing explanation of why this had nothing to do with the Brexit vote would be useful...

Nothing has happened to make the idea of Leave more appealing to initially lukewarm Remainers, while much has happened to make it look more worrying. But the Brexiteers on GN just carry on with their old arguments. When the horizon changes prudent sailors alter their direction, blinkered one’s carry on heading for the rocks.

Yes there are fluctuations in exchange rates and that is how some people manage to make a lot of money. On the night of the referendum Farage's apparent concession was very helpful to some of his friends.

Sources told Bloomberg that they believed Brexit to have generated “one of the most profitable single days in the history of their industry.” Odey Asset Management, run by the Conservative party donor and leave supporter Crispin Odey, is reported to have made $300m from Brexit.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/26/nigel-farage-remain-won-brexit-bloomberg

varian there are constant fluctuations in the foreign exchange rates over the years for various reasons.

If Britain is forced into a ‘tragic’ No Deal Brexit with the European Union then ‘the only person rejoicing will be Vladimir Putin’, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said

www.dailystar.co.uk/news/politics/720123/Brexit-news-vladimir-putin-jeremy-hunt-paris-france-no-deal-kremlin

Probably not quite true that Putin would be the only person rejoicing. His accolytes Arron Banks, Steve Bannon, Farage, Rees-Mogg and a few tax dodging billionaires and speculators would also be pretty happy.

There are other factors in the world apart from brexit that can and do cause financial fluctuations. Turkey doesn't look very promising on the financial fronts along with Italy, Greece, Portugal and who knows who in the pipe line. Propping up all these faltering countries if we stay in the EU doesn't sound particularly attractive, especially long term!

Since any brexit news item from the Guardian seems to be labelled "fake news" or "project fear", I have turned to the Leavers' bible, the Daily Mail to read the following-

"Supermarket giants have warned a no-deal Brexit would force up the price of a weekly food shop by 12 per cent. Executives from the big four supermarkets said the biggest tariffs on EU imports would include cheese, up by 44 per cent, beef, 40 per cent, and chicken, 20 per cent. The predictions were laid bare in briefings to the Treasury on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on shoppers. "

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6052111/Supermarket-giants-warn-no-deal-Brexit-force-food-prices-12-cheese-beef.html

A lot of people are easily swayed one way or the other depending on what the media tells them. Ask them in a year's time and a lot will have changed their minds - AGAIN!! As Lemon and others have said a lot of us were perfectly happy belonging to a trade organisation, in fact we embraced it, but other than that we basically don't want to be part of an out of date organization run by overpaid, bullying bureaucrats, with a rubber stamp parliament purporting to be democratic! We don't want to become part of a federal state, along with a lot of EU countries who equally are waking up to the fact that this is exactly what lies ahead - in other words the grand plan is that the EU will become your country, with its own parliament, army, money, and so on, and where you live, a province of that country called Europe, with individual parliaments reduced to no more than the local authority, answerable, of course, to our new country, Europe. To coin a phrase, NO, NO, NO.

GillT57
I realise that ‘waiting and seeing’ is not popular on GN, who’s posters seem to want instant predictions, but it is still the most sensible thing to do.
To me and many others, it seems worthwhile for the UK, even it it takes some years ( if the economy dips) to be truly in charge of our own country for every single thing.
Most of the world isn’t in the EU btw and prefer to be masters of their own fate.
Who knows what will happen with the EU in the future in any case, it doesn’t look good.
I have no ‘touching faith’ but am one of the over 17 million who thinks we should disassociate ourselves with this political behemoth apart from some trade deals.

Apparently a poll by the Guardian now reports that over 100 constituencies have now swung to remain, including Boris's and Gove's, IF it is true are they going to change sides citing the Will of the People.

There may be hope for sanity yet.

I spoke to some English people the day after the vote and they thought we should"give it a chance and if it doesn't work we can go back in".I say English folk because I was in the north of England at the time so it was their opinions I asked.I dont know any Scots who voted leave although I do know there are some .I did try to explain that it wasn't like an election with a change every 4 or 5 years but they seemed to think it would be easy to reverse.I was back in the same place recently and the atitude of some was very different and they can see the jobs disappearing along with the NHS staff that are so badly needed.
Maybe some of our Brexiteers here can explain what we'll do for NHS staff and employment when it all heads towards the continent or Ireland ?

The closer we get to this disaster the more I worry, so lemon and ally your platitudes about ^Why not wait and see how you feel next year when we are actually out of the EU^ do not bring me comfort, in fact the very opposite. I have yet, despite many requests, to receive any idea of what good is going to come from this financial and political suicide, apart from vague statements about 'taking back control'.....of what? Doesn't the fact that even the Remainers are talking about some sort of damage limitation/best we can do scenario rather than glorious uplands of eternal sunshine and unicorns worry you? Even JRM is talking about two generations for the benefits to be felt, that is one hell of a prediction don't you think? Some of us may no longer be here by then, maybe some of our children, this is as irresponsible and utterly selfish as leaving a load of nuclear waste for future generations to deal with. Your faith is touching lemon, but just because Ally can cut and paste huge pages of justification, doesn't make it right. Nor does my opinion of course, but it is my own and I am truly concerned about what is ahead for me and my family, all brought about for no good reason at all

Interesting front page article in the Observer yesterday saying that if the referendum was re-run there would be a large remain majority as so many people have changed their mind on the issue.

I am not sure I believe that, but as a remainer I hope that Brexit goes through as soon as possible, while it is still possible to change our minds should Brexit prove a disaster. the longer it takes to negotiate the more difficult it will be to re-enter if it doen't work and we will be consigned to a foot note in history and become an unsuccessful country with a flat economy as Ireland was before it entered the EU.

All the evidence points to any kind of brexit being disastrous.

But we're constantly being told that no-one can predict the future, varian. Do keep up

No-one, that is, apart from Leavers who absolutely know that Brexit is going to be fine.

All the evidence points to any kind of brexit being disastrous. We have repeatedly asked what the benefits are supposed to be and all we get is "wait and see"

"wait and see"? Is that the best you can do??

Well it can't be in anyone else opinion can it Maizie!

In your opinion, Ally.

Sensible and kind advise Lemongrove.

Why not wait and see how you feel next year when we are actually out of the EU and your life has not become worse, neither has it for your children and grandchildren.
The negativity is bringing you down, nothing else.

Going on and on about it won’t do any good, nor will it change anything.

I have a life for which I am very grateful. I have been fortunate to have been a UK citizen at a time when all of us in the UK have been able to enjoy the many advantages of living in an EU country and I would like my children and grandchildren to continue to enjoy these advantages.

Varian you have become obsessed with Brexit! It must have taken over your life for the last couple of years.

The action on the markets is as a result of the Turkish Lira nose dive and contagion across the EU and the World. Sell off is happening World wide.

Brexit is happening, can you imagine what would happen if the majority vote in two elections in the UK was not fulfilled. That would be the end of confidence in the Parliamentary system, Politicians, and you might as well hand over to the Anarchists. Is that what you want Varian?